Egypt faces deeper cuts amid stubborn fiscal deficit

Subject Egypt's fiscal outlook. Significance The Ministry of Finance has issued figures for budget performance after five months of the 2014-15 fiscal year, which started on July 1, 2014. The deficit is higher than in the previous year, but this is mainly because of the distorting effect of the massive transfusion of Gulf Arab aid after the removal of President Mohammed Morsi in July 2013. Other aspects of the accounts are more encouraging, including a rise in non-oil tax revenue and the likelihood that energy subsidies will fall sharply. Impacts The 2014-15 budget deficit is likely to be close to the target of 10% of GDP, assuming a modest level of Gulf aid in the coming months. The relatively strong rate of economic growth will help to moderate the deficit as a percentage of GDP. Increased tax revenue and lower energy subsidy costs will help to moderate the budget deficit. However, it will remain high in absolute terms due to the bloated wage bill and increased interest payments. The government will therefore have to take politically sensitive decisions, either trimming the state labour force or further subsidy cuts.

Significance The policy statement gives the government's projection of economic growth and government spending. Gigaba announced that growth for the 2017/18 fiscal year is projected at 0.7%, revised downwards from 1.3%, while both the budget deficit and overall government debt are set to rise. Additionally, Pretoria is grappling with a tax revenue shortfall of 50.2 billion rand (3.5 billion dollars). Impacts Forthcoming public sector wage talks and union demands may add further pressure on the treasury and increase revenue shortfalls. Institutional instability at the South African Revenue Service (SARS) means lagging tax collection could persist in the short term. Southern African Customs Union (SACU) members will suffer further declines in government revenue, impacting Lesotho and Swaziland most.


Significance He will release a mini-budget on January 23. Revenue collection in the first half of fiscal year 2018/19 (July-June) showed 3.8% annual growth. The government targets a budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP for 2018/19, down from 6.6% in 2017/18. Impacts Financial support from allies will shape Pakistan’s diplomacy, Islamabad likely to align more closely with Saudi policy. By avoiding an IMF bailout for now, Pakistan would be able to avoid US pressure during talks with the Fund. The central bank will likely undertake monetary tightening.


Subject Egypt's budget deficit woes. Significance President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has approved the budget for the 2015-16 fiscal year (July-June) after insisting that the deficit target be reduced from 9.9% of GDP to 8.9%. Reducing the budget deficit to a sustainable level over the next three to four years is a key government objective. However, finance ministry efforts to develop new revenue streams and trim expenditure have so far met resistance. Impacts If the government does resort to the IMF, it will face pressure for more resolute measures to cut the deficit and to devalue the pound. After the success of its first international bond issue, the government is likely to return to the markets later this year. The finance ministry wants to introduce VAT for goods and services, but will face pressure from business to limit its scope.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Agus Saiful Abib ◽  
Efi Yulistyowati ◽  
Amri Panahatan Sihotang

<p>Tahun 2016, pemerintah mengeluarkan kembali kebijakan <em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty </em>yang dituangkan dalam Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak. Pengampunan Pajak (<em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan penerimaan pajak dalam jangka pendek melalui pembayaran uang tebusan, meningkatkan penerimaan pajak dalam jangka panjang melalui perluasan basis data pemajakan, meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak, transisi ke sistem perpajakan baru yang lebih kuat dan adil, dan mendorong rekonsiliasi perpajakan nasional. Sehubungan dengan hal tersebut, untuk mengetahui apakah program <em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty</em> Indonesia Tahun 2016 berhasil atau tidak, khususnya dalam meningkatkan kepatuhan wajib pajak, maka perlu dilakukan penelitian tentang : “Implikasi Penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak (<em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty</em>) dalam Meningkatkan Kepatuhan Wajib Pajak”. Adapun permasalahan yang akan dibahas adalah bagaimana implikasi penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak<em> (Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> dalam meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak ? Berdasarkan implikasi tersebut, maka bagaimana sebaiknya pengaturan perpajakan yang akan datang ? Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut jenis penelitian ini adalah yuridis normatif yang akan dikaji dengan pendekatan perundang-undangan, spesifikasi penelitiannya diskriptif analitis, data yang dipergunakan data sekunder, yang dianalisis secara kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implikasi penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak<em> (Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> dapat meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak, dan berdasarkan implikasi tersebut SE Dirjen Pajak No. SE - 06/PJ/2017 seharusnya tidak hanya untuk tahun pajak 2017 saja, tetapi juga untuk tahun-tahun yang akan datang. Di samping itu perlu ada peraturan yang mengatur tentang pengawasan terhadap pelaksanaan hak Wajib Pajak.</p><pre>In 2016, the government re-issue the Tax Amnesty policy as outlined in Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty. The Tax Amnesty is expected to increase tax revenue in the short term through ransom payments, increase tax revenues over the long term through the expansion of taxation databases, increase taxpayer compliance, transition to a stronger and more just tax system, and encourage national tax reconciliation. In relation to this matter, to find out whether the program of Tax Amnesty Indonesia Year 2016 succeed or not, especially in increasing taxpayer compliance, it is necessary to do research on: "Implications Implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty in Improving Taxpayer Compliance ". The problem to be discussed is how the implications of the implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amendment (Tax Amnesty) in improving taxpayer compliance? Based on these implications, then how should the taxation arrangements to come? Based on the problem, this type of research is normative juridical which will be studied with the approach of legislation, the analytical descriptive research specification, the data used secondary data, which analyzed qualitatively. The result of the research shows that the implication of the implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty can improve Taxpayer compliance, and based on the implication of SE Dirjen Pajak No. SE - 06 / PJ / 2017 should not only be for the fiscal year 2017 alone, but also for the years to come. In addition, there should be a regulation that regulates the supervision of the implementation of taxpayers' rights.</pre>


Author(s):  
В. Пушкарева ◽  
V. Pushkareva

In the years of recession and stagnation in the decrease in government revenues, increase budget spending, which inevitably leads to an increase in the budget deficit. Current to 2016, the situation forced the Government of the Russian Federation in the first place, firmly put the issue of optimization of expenditures of the Federal budget, and secondly on the search for additional sources of tax revenue (improving tax administration, enhancing tax collection, tax maneuvers) and non-tax revenues (privatization). The article analyzes the scientific heritage of professor F.A. Minkov (1881–1937) from the point of view of the economy of the state (budgetary) costs, including sources of revenue, reducing the costs of collection and improve fiscal productivity taxes. The insights of professor F.A. Menkovare relevant today for the effective implementation of budgetary policy in Russia.


Significance This reflects the significant risks lying ahead for the government despite the European Council's decision on August 9 to waive fines for Portugal over its excessive budget deficit in 2015. Impacts The European Commission retains the possibility of suspending structural funds for Portugal. The decision to waive the fine could undermine the credibility of EU rules in the long term. Slower economic growth and the weak banking sector could lead to Portugal being downgraded by rating agencies.


Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.


Significance The review will take into account the effects of measures taken thus far, in particular the flotation of the Egyptian pound, and will assess the government’s budget for the 2017-18 (July-June) fiscal year. Impacts The government will struggle to reduce the deficit because of the scale of public debt and the record high domestic interest rate. Government expenditure on wages will rise at a much lower rate than inflation. The public will also face further rises in indirect taxation, revenue from which is projected to rise by 40%. The IMF is unlikely to raise any serious objections to the government’s plans.


Subject Planned pay increases in Egypt. Significance President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi in late March announced rises to the minimum wage, pensions and bonuses, which will be effective from July. This is intended to offset the inflationary effects of the 2016 currency devaluation, as well as austerity measures undertaken by the government in compliance with the terms of a 12-billion-dollar IMF loan. The wage reforms, however, target formal and public-sector employees and offer no benefit to more than 50% of the workforce employed in the informal economy. At the same time, the ambitious fiscal reform programme that Cairo has pursued over the past three years has increased poverty levels. Impacts Raising the minimum wage will in turn reduce spending on social protection programmes. Wage reforms will stimulate consumer spending and boost economic growth. The rising minimum wage will increase operating costs for small firms, which may evade paying the legal minimum through informal employment. Despite being intended to counter price rises, the changes risk fuelling cost-push inflation. Planned public sector pay rises risk increasing the budget deficit.


Significance The budgeting process is where the government determines its fiscal priorities for the following year. However, gridlock in Congress and the deep divisions between the parties has made normal procedure a rare occurrence, and appears set to do so for the fiscal year 2016 federal budget. Impacts Military spending will likely trump deficit reduction within the Republican party. Areas of likely agreement include increased funding for 'superbug' resistance. Healthcare funding would require quick congressional action in the event of an adverse Supreme Court decision.


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