Caste unrest will help Modi's party retain Dalit vote

Subject Caste politics in India. Significance In a sign of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to shape the political agenda, the National Democratic Alliance's candidate Ram Nath Kovind was sworn in as India's 14th president on July 25. With attacks on Dalits (low castes) in the north Indian heartlands of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) surging, the nomination of a Dalit for the presidency was designed to strengthen the party's appeal to the community ahead of state elections. Impacts Support for the main opposition Congress party among Dalits will decline in Gujarat. Beef and leather exports will fall despite the Supreme Court suspending the ban on trading cattle for slaughter. Anti-Muslim violence may increase across the country.

Subject Parliamentary disruptions and increasing riots in India. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month led a public fast in protest at disruptions inside parliament, which cost the budget session nearly 250 hours in lost deliberations. While the Indian legislature’s role in holding the executive to account is curtailed, popular riots provide a means to challenge government policies. India’s general election is due in 2019, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power. Impacts Opposition parties’ attempts to have the Supreme Court chief justice impeached are unlikely to succeed. Spikes in civil violence are likely ahead of forthcoming state elections. The BJP and its allies may achieve a majority in the upper house after 2019, if Modi's party retains power.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-31
Author(s):  
Krishna K. Tummala

PurposeThis paper focuses on two examples of constitutional corruption in India where the constitution is used for questionable political reasons by the Bharatiya Janata Party under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Design/methodology/approachThe paper relies on public documents and media reports to analyse Prime Minister Modi's handling of the purchase of Rafale jet fighters from France and the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A which resulted in the division of the State of Jammu and Kashmir.FindingsConstitutional and democratic norms were violated in both cases, but the Supreme Court did not find any irregularities in the sale of the Rafale jet fighters. The second case is under challenge in the Supreme Court. The analysis reveals how the Modi government has undermined democratic values and used constitutional provisions to pursue its partisan and ideological agenda.Originality/valueThe paper focuses attention on the often neglected topic of constitutional corruption in India.


Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.


Author(s):  
Lee HP

This chapter explores the constitutional and political dimensions of the crisis that rocked the Malaysian judiciary in 1988. For the first time in Malaysian legal history, the highest judicial officer in the land was suspended and, after an inquiry to determine whether he should be removed for alleged misbehaviour, was subsequently removed. Following this unprecedented development, two other senior judges of the Supreme Court were also removed from office after an inquiry by a second tribunal. The political dimension cannot be divorced from the constitutional dimension because the legal and constitutional manoeuvrings were consonant with political skirmishes that involved, at one stage, the political survival of Prime Minister Mahathir.


Subject Prospects for India to end-2016. Significance Policymakers are counting on improved agrarian performance, cheaper credit and economic diplomacy to drive growth in coming months. On the political front, after a modest triumph in the last round of regional elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are emboldened but still politically encumbered.


Significance Party President Rahul Gandhi’s Congress displaced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all in the nationally ruling party’s ‘Hindu-Hindi’ heartland and with large rural constituencies. In recent months, opposition parties including Congress have been in talks about possibly forming a broad anti-BJP front to challenge Modi in the general election, likely in April or May next year. Impacts More farmer-led protests are likely ahead of the general election. Outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim violence are likely, especially in the north and west. Modi’s government will press the Reserve Bank of India to release more reserves and cut rates, hoping to boost growth.


Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.


Subject Morales pressures. Significance The UN-led International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and the attorney general’s office on August 10 formally requested that the supreme court allow a legislative vote on whether President Jimmy Morales can be stripped of immunity from prosecution. Morales is facing investigation over allegations of illegal campaign financing, which undermine his stated commitment to combating corruption. Impacts Confrontation with the CICIG could affect aid financing from international donors, especially those linked to the UN. A successful push to remove Morales’s immunity would likely spark a series of similar motions against serving legislators. Popular frustration with the political establishment will position new, anti-corruption parties well for the elections in 2019.


Significance Both states currently have chief ministers from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). India’s main opposition Congress party and regional players are aiming to wrest power from them. Impacts In some parts of Maharashtra, there will likely be outbreaks of agrarian protest in the final stages of campaigning. Smaller parties could win more seats than Congress in the Haryana poll. Parties winning fewer votes in the elections will probably claim impropriety relating to electronic voting machines.


Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is aiming to retain a parliamentary majority. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the main opposition Congress party, and several unaligned parties are looking to come to power. Impacts The Election Commission will attract criticism over the conduct of the polls from disgruntled parties. A priority for the post-election government will be addressing India’s trading relations with partners in the region and beyond. Tensions with Pakistan could escalate at any time, but the formation of a new government may create an opening for bilateral talks.


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