Geopolitical tensions will add to UAE cyber threats

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Home Depot ◽  
Virus Attack ◽  
State Group ◽  
Cyber Conflict

Subject The threats and capabilities of UAE in cyber security. Significance Concerns over cyber security are mounting with high-profile commercial breaches on companies such as TV5 Monde, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Target and Home Depot, and disclosures on nation-state capabilities and actions, such as the Stuxnet attack on Iranian centrifuges at Natanz in 2010 and the Shamoon virus attack on Saudi Aramco in 2012. The combination of rising cyber crime and geopolitical cyber conflict, not least that emanating from the Islamic State group (ISG), alarms the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as it seeks to enhance its position as a financial and logistics hub. Impacts Cyber-savvy ISG sympathisers are likely to conduct further cyber attacks to avenge the US-led air campaign against ISG. ISG-sympathetic insiders may be an even higher threat to businesses and governments. Managed Security Services Providers (MSSP) will be the primary beneficiary of moves to increase cyber security.

Mosul will test US efforts to rebuild Iraqi army

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
And Training

Subject US Iraqi Train and Equip Fund. Significance The US Department of Defense has requested an additional 630 million dollars for the Iraqi Train and Equip Fund (ITEF) in the 2016-17 fiscal year. This fund, hurriedly brought into existence in the summer of 2014, was developed to provide assistance and training to the Iraqi army in the wake of its disastrous performance against Islamic State group (ISG) forces. Forces trained under the ITEF will be a key component of the planned offensive to retake the ISG stronghold of Mosul later this year. Impacts The programme is unlikely to continue once Mosul has been retaken -- although other funding streams will continue. Its success would strengthen the Iraqi army, thereby empowering central government against pro-Iran, hardline militias. Its failure would strengthen these militias and increase the prospects of a semi-permanent fragmentation of the Iraqi state.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

Turkey's counterterrorism policy risks more violence

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Northern Iraq ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Us ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group ◽  
Counterterrorism Policy

Significance The meeting follows Turkey's launch of military strikes on July 24 against Islamic State group (ISG) in northern Syria and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. Although Ankara says it is pursuing a broader strategy against terrorism, it has two asymmetrical goals. Against ISG, its measures remain largely defensive in nature, including driving ISG from the border and reducing the threat of blowback inside Turkey. Against the PKK, they appear more ambitious and appear designed to crush the organisation and use force rather than dialogue to resolve the demands of Turkey's Kurds for greater cultural and political rights. Impacts The US-led coalition may move the main platform for its air campaign in Syria and Iraq to Turkey, reducing flying times to targets. Ankara is likely to stop short of deploying ground troops in Syria. ISG may retaliate inside Turkey, particularly against its tourism sector. AKP may abandon coalition negotiations and go for the nationalist vote to recover its majority in early elections, possibly in November. Crackdown on ISG activities inside Turkey could weaken the group in Syria.

United Arab Emirates will maintain strong stability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Strong Stability ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
State Group

Subject UAE politics and internal security. Significance In a turbulent region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a rare island of stability. Yet rising concern about Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic State group (ISG) has led to mass arrests and an assertive foreign policy in recent years. The internal stability outlook will also be determined by leadership transitions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the relationship between these two emirates, and popular reactions to economic adjustments to low oil prices. Impacts There is a small but real risk of terrorist attacks, but any incidents are unlikely to harm the business environment. Abu Dhabi and Dubai's differences over Iran will remain challenging in the post-sanctions environment. Differences with Saudi Arabia over the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen could become serious if southern Yemen tries to secede.

Islamist movements will sustain popular appeal in Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
Sectarian Conflict ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
State Group ◽  
Islamist Movements

Subject Islamist movements in the smaller GCC states. Significance The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings placed political Islam at the centre of political debate in the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) bloc. Qatar's support for Islamists abroad was unacceptable to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) who consider the group to pose a serious threat to both the regional status quo and their domestic monopoly on power. Local Islamist movements remain a force within the smaller GCC states of Qatar, Kuwait and UAE. Governments have significantly adapted their approach to them in response to the Arab uprisings and the subsequent rise of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts Differences over Islamist movements impede GCC cooperation on regional policy and security. Longer-term, Islamists would be one of the main beneficiaries of any constitutional reforms that open up political space in the GCC. Sectarian conflict in the region and tougher economic conditions at home may reinforce conservative religious sentiment in the Gulf. The UAE will maintain the toughest policies, while Kuwait and Qatar will pursue more lenient approaches.

Arab youth opinion points to instability, reform risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Youth Population ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Governments

Subject Arab youth opinion. Significance Arab youth views Islamic State group (ISG), terrorism and unemployment as the top obstacles facing the Middle East today, according to a new survey released on April 12 by a United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based PR firm, ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller. With the failure of regional governments to meet the aspirations of the region's large youth population contributing to the 2011 uprisings, the attitudes of today's youth expressed in the survey will shape the outlook for stabilisation, security and economic reform. Impacts Reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran will be a fundamental first step to the region's stabilisation. Concerns about unemployment and falling living standards will drive social unrest and recruitment to militant organisations. Strong anti-US opinion will complicate Washington's engagement in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

Sober policies are key to Islamic State risk in India

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Group Activity ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Effort ◽  
Indian Men ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group activity in India. Significance Indian authorities have thus far arrested 20 suspected Islamic State group (ISG) operatives, including most recently a cleric accused of spreading violent propaganda on behalf of the Sunni radical organisation based in Iraq and Syria. The arrests are part of a wider crackdown, which has included incarcerations of Indian Muslims accused of ISG links, and separately the arrest by Syrian and the United Arab Emirates' authorities of eight Indian men travelling to joining ISG. At least 23 Indians are said to have already joined the group, with two reportedly killed in fighting. Impacts ISG-linked activity is likely to have limited electoral salience, at least for the time being. It could acquire some prominence if arrests selectively target Muslims because of their religion rather than actions. Indian participation in any international effort against ISG risks intensifying the domestic radicalisation risk.

Erdogan may find events in Turkey escaping his control

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
Military Conflicts ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Eu

Subject Erdogan's vision for Turkey. Significance Since the July attempted coup, the government has purged 81,000 real or imagined opponents. Yet it has not been in turmoil, as is frequently claimed, even though President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's refusal to compromise on any front has locked Turkey into simultaneous expensive military conflicts, including participation in the civil war in Syria, just after 3,000 serving officers have been purged and just under 40% of generals and admirals either sacked or arrested. Impacts Erdogan's supremacy faces no foreseeable internal challengers or pressures to make policy changes. Turkey's international isolation will worsen, especially the US rift; the EU will keep its soft line while Russia will be friendly. The defeat of Islamic State group and recapture of Mosul will exacerbate US-Turkish tensions. Reliance on Russian energy imports may grow and new areas of cooperation be announced. Turkey's ambitious new health system may be an early economic area to run into financing problems.

Ontological (In)visibility and Cyber Conflict: The Problem of Sight and Vision in Establishing Threat

2021 ◽  
pp. 030437542110245
Author(s):  
Jonathon P. Whooley
Keyword(s):  
Computer Science ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Threat Assessment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Ontological Security ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Passive Response ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cyber Conflict

This paper builds on the work of scholars working on ontological security, cyber security, and computer science to understand the problem of threat assessment and vision before, during, and after cyber-attacks. The previous use of ontological security theory (OST) has been limited because it has relied upon an overly simplistic vision of threat assessment at the international, state, and individual level. While previous scholars have examined the background, latent, or assumed visions of security threats as interpreted by agents and how their conditions do or do not effectively capture the anxieties of populations and practitioners this piece seeks to put these issues in conversation. In conceiving of ‘the state’ and ‘threat’ this piece examines the notion of vision, because as states conceive of threats in terms of terrorism (overt and theatrical) and cyber (covert and private) a mismatch of responses is noted. This piece reads the current cyber security landscape (2009-2019) in the United States through a lens of repeated and rambunctious cyber-threats and attacks and a largely passive response by the US citizenry through OST alongside: (1) the literature on computer science dealing with the concept of ontology, (2) the traditional threat framework found in the terrorism literature around response to threat with a comparison to the cyber-conflict literature, an (3) examination of the interplay between the public and government around the visibility and salience of cyberthreats.

Islamic State group has reinvigorated global jihadism

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The past year witnessed further jihadi gains amid the political turmoil in the Middle East that has followed the Arab uprisings -- most significantly the Islamic State Group (ISG)'s conquest of Sunni provinces Iraq in June and proclamation of a caliphate. However, the advance is not even across the board; the threat remains centred on regional targets, more than those in the West. More spillover from a metastasising jihadism in the Middle East is to be expected, including sporadic high-profile attacks in the West. Impacts The international reputation of Syria's Assad regime will gradually improve as the West remains focused on the threat of the ISG. Authoritarian regimes will exploit the jihadist threat to justify internal security crackdowns and delay democratic reforms. US-Iranian collaboration against ISG will reinforce the perception of an anti-Sunni conspiracy -- a key feature of jihadi propaganda. The US shale oil revolution will continue to offset disruption to oil supplies by the ISG. Tourism in affected countries, particularly Egypt, will continue to suffer.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document