Iran oil sector faces slow recovery from sanctions

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Final Agreement

Significance Iran has agreed to restrict its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions, including on its oil and financial sectors. However, prices recovered slightly after the realisation that sanctions would take time to be lifted following the conclusion of a final agreement expected by June 30. Impacts Iranian oil production and export will increase by some 0.8 million b/d over a 6-9 month period from the start of the deal's implementation. Sanctions on Iran's repatriation of oil earnings would be lifted or suspended by US presidential waiver. Iran would seek foreign investment into its oil industry to sustain and increase production in the longer term. Increased oil exports could raise an additional 9.2 billion dollars in revenues in 2016. Saudi Arabia would avoid making production cuts in a bid to retain market share.

South Sudanese oil production could remain low

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The outlook for South Sudanese oil production. Significance South Sudanese exports are dominated by oil production. The end of the 2013-15 civil war and establishment of a national unity government could signal an improved outlook for the oil sector, but transportation and infrastructure barriers, low prices, a fragile peace and poor local management may hinder the sector's revitalisation efforts. Impacts Donors and the IMF will pressure authorities to increase non-oil revenue sources. No new oil exploration is likely before 2017. Further disruptions in oil production are possible. Lower oil prices will affect South Sudan more than most oil states given its overwhelming reliance on oil exports.

Libyan oil exports will remain hostage to conflict

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Military Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Budget Crisis ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

Significance In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%. The retreat of Haftar’s forces from western Libya as units supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) advance towards Sirte raises questions about how control of the hydrocarbons sector will evolve. Impacts Some increases in oil exports are likely, but they may be short-lived. If oil exports do not rise this year, fears of a budget crisis will grow. The NOC is unlikely to support the GNA trying to use more oil sector promises to mobilise international support, for example from Turkey.

Investment in Africa's palm oil sector will grow

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Rain Forests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Production Methods ◽  
Limited Access ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Fertiliser Use ◽  
Cultivation Techniques

Significance The finding is symptomatic of an array of controversies surrounding the wider palm oil industry in the region, which is set for robust growth. Impacts Growing fertiliser use, better cultivation techniques and rising investment could see Ghana become self-sufficient in palm oil by 2020. Smallholders will struggle to maintain their market share given their limited access to capital and rudimental production methods. Gabon's drive to increase palm oil output conflicts with its stated aim to preserve its rain forests in order the grow ecotourism.

Iran can quickly hike oil exports as politics allow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Slow Progress

Significance Tehran’s more sophisticated sanctions avoidance tactics and greater willingness to test Washington’s enforcement have substantially boosted exports from 2019 lows. The slow progress on a US-Iranian mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has increased market uncertainty. Impacts Before sanctions lifting, limited waivers might add a few hundred thousand b/d of exports to US allies such as India, Japan and South Korea. New foreign oil investment will depend on views of Tehran’s domestic politics after June polls and the durability of a deal with Washington. Post-sanctions, Iran’s efforts to regain market share will create tensions with OPEC+ partners in quota negotiations.

South Sudan faces a bleak development outlook

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Development Outlook

Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.

scholarly journals “Shale Revolution” in the United States as the Main Driver of the World Oil Market Transformation

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 71-93
Author(s):  
S. A. Zolina ◽  
I. A. Kopytin ◽  
O. B. Reznikova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
The World ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The U.S

In 2018 the United States surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the largest world oil producer. The article focuses on the mechanisms through which the American shale revolution increasingly impacts functioning of the world oil market. The authors show that this impact is translated to the world oil market mainly through the trade and price channels. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports in December 2015 allowed the United States to increase rapidly supply of crude oil to the world oil market, the country’s share in the world crude oil exports reached 4,4% in 2018 and continues to rise. The U.S. share in the world petroleum products exports, on which the American oil sector places the main stake, reached 18%. In parallel with increasing oil production the U.S. considerably shrank crude oil import that forced many oil exporters to reorient to other markets. Due to high elasticity of tight oil production to the oil price increases oil from the U.S. has started to constrain the world oil price from above. According to the majority of authoritative forecasts, oil production in the U.S. will continue to increase at least until 2025. Since 2017 the tendency to the increasing expansion of supermajors into American unconventional oil sector has become noticeable, what will contribute to further strengthening of the U.S. position in the world oil market and accelerate its restructuring.  

Kuwait faces imminent oil capacity constraints

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Capacity Constraints ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Administrative Efficiency ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Company

Significance Capacity has fallen by around 15% over the past four years and is below the country’s official OPEC baseline. COVID-19 and difficult executive-legislative relations in 2020-21 have interfered with oil sector project delivery. Impacts As projects flounder, Kuwait will lose market share to regional rivals. Restructuring the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation from eight operating companies to three may boost administrative efficiency. Upstream operations are unlikely to be much affected by restructuring, given the dominance of Kuwait Oil Company.

Baghdad and Erbil policy moves may deter oil investors

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Injection ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Associated Gas ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Bureaucratic Reform

Significance Although some important hydrocarbons projects have seen progress, both Baghdad and Erbil have made fresh moves seen as prejudicial by oil sector investors. Uncertainty continues over the authorities’ commitment to contracts, while the Kurdistan region has yet again fallen behind on payments to oil firms. Impacts Increased oil production as OPEC+ limits ease will make progress on associated gas capture and water injection more urgent. A dire electricity situation may pose a threat to political stability. Uncertainties over the upcoming elections in October and poor prospects for bureaucratic reform may further deter investment.

Legacy issues constrain Sudan's economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Fiscal Revenue

Significance Khartoum has benefited from a fixed per-barrel transit fee given falling oil prices, but the Sudanese economy has yet to recover from the shock caused by South Sudan's secession in 2011. According to the IMF's latest review, Sudan at that point lost three quarters of its oil production, one-half of its fiscal revenue and two-thirds of its international payments capacity. While the economy has begun to stabilise, recovery is fragile. Impacts Khartoum benefits from the delay to transit fee renegotiation, but talks are likely to begin soon. This may provoke renewed confrontations over other issues, such as the border and claims about rebel support. However, a renewed suspension of South Sudanese oil exports would hurt Juba more than Khartoum.

Iran's oil production will stabilise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Market Opening ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Stable Production ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors

Significance The oil sector is bouncing back after the lifting of international sanctions. Production has risen from an average of 2.8 million bpd during 2015, and is now approaching pre-sanctions levels. The country has finalised new-style petroleum contracts offering more favourable terms to international investors. Impacts Banking, compliance and sanctions issues will gradually ease, reducing pressure on the oil sector. A stable production outlook will facilitate efforts to agree an OPEC production freeze. Oil revenue in 2016 could reach 31.5 billion dollars, 75% up on 2015, easing the fiscal situation. Exports of petrochemicals and refined oil products will rise, on the back of higher oil output and market opening.

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