Baghdad and Erbil policy moves may deter oil investors

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Injection ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Associated Gas ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Bureaucratic Reform

Significance Although some important hydrocarbons projects have seen progress, both Baghdad and Erbil have made fresh moves seen as prejudicial by oil sector investors. Uncertainty continues over the authorities’ commitment to contracts, while the Kurdistan region has yet again fallen behind on payments to oil firms. Impacts Increased oil production as OPEC+ limits ease will make progress on associated gas capture and water injection more urgent. A dire electricity situation may pose a threat to political stability. Uncertainties over the upcoming elections in October and poor prospects for bureaucratic reform may further deter investment.

Iran's oil production will stabilise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Market Opening ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Stable Production ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors

Significance The oil sector is bouncing back after the lifting of international sanctions. Production has risen from an average of 2.8 million bpd during 2015, and is now approaching pre-sanctions levels. The country has finalised new-style petroleum contracts offering more favourable terms to international investors. Impacts Banking, compliance and sanctions issues will gradually ease, reducing pressure on the oil sector. A stable production outlook will facilitate efforts to agree an OPEC production freeze. Oil revenue in 2016 could reach 31.5 billion dollars, 75% up on 2015, easing the fiscal situation. Exports of petrochemicals and refined oil products will rise, on the back of higher oil output and market opening.

South Sudanese oil production could remain low

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The outlook for South Sudanese oil production. Significance South Sudanese exports are dominated by oil production. The end of the 2013-15 civil war and establishment of a national unity government could signal an improved outlook for the oil sector, but transportation and infrastructure barriers, low prices, a fragile peace and poor local management may hinder the sector's revitalisation efforts. Impacts Donors and the IMF will pressure authorities to increase non-oil revenue sources. No new oil exploration is likely before 2017. Further disruptions in oil production are possible. Lower oil prices will affect South Sudan more than most oil states given its overwhelming reliance on oil exports.

South Sudan oil sector optimism is premature

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The performance and prospects of South Sudan’s oil sector. Significance The signing in September of a notional peace agreement has raised the question of whether South Sudan’s authorities can now boost oil production and revenues -- and whether they will use any new revenues to support peace. Impacts Output is unlikely to rise far above 130,000-150,000 b/d in 2019. Details about oil revenues and their distribution will remain largely hidden. Major oil companies will continue to shun South Sudan as an investment destination.

Libyan oil exports will remain hostage to conflict

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Military Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Budget Crisis ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

Significance In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%. The retreat of Haftar’s forces from western Libya as units supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) advance towards Sirte raises questions about how control of the hydrocarbons sector will evolve. Impacts Some increases in oil exports are likely, but they may be short-lived. If oil exports do not rise this year, fears of a budget crisis will grow. The NOC is unlikely to support the GNA trying to use more oil sector promises to mobilise international support, for example from Turkey.

Iraqi Kurdistan could see oil and gas advances

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Iraqi Kurdistan ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Slight Rise

Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.

Lasso oil plans will stoke tensions in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign State ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Oil Company

Significance He aims to increase incentives for private firms and foreign state-owned enterprises to operate in Ecuador, while reducing the role of national oil company Petroecuador. The reforms, if implemented, may have their intended effect on oil production but they will stoke political tensions and will be challenged by indigenous and environmental movements. Impacts Plans to boost oil production will reassure international investors about the government’s ability to service foreign debt obligations. Global campaigns against funding oil investment might limit international investment in the oil sector to some degree. Increased oil production and exports will alleviate balance of payments constraints on economic growth.

Iran oil sector faces slow recovery from sanctions

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Final Agreement

Significance Iran has agreed to restrict its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions, including on its oil and financial sectors. However, prices recovered slightly after the realisation that sanctions would take time to be lifted following the conclusion of a final agreement expected by June 30. Impacts Iranian oil production and export will increase by some 0.8 million b/d over a 6-9 month period from the start of the deal's implementation. Sanctions on Iran's repatriation of oil earnings would be lifted or suspended by US presidential waiver. Iran would seek foreign investment into its oil industry to sustain and increase production in the longer term. Increased oil exports could raise an additional 9.2 billion dollars in revenues in 2016. Saudi Arabia would avoid making production cuts in a bid to retain market share.

Plans for Mexico’s Pemex look increasingly unrealistic

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Compound A ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Company

Subject Pemex problems. Significance State-owned oil firm Pemex announced losses of 562.1 billion pesos (23.6 billion dollars) in the first quarter of 2020. The results compound a 34.9-billion-dollar loss recorded in 2019. Pemex is already the world’s most indebted oil company and with global oil prices at some of their lowest-ever levels, any potential recovery looks a distant prospect. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has nevertheless reaffirmed his government’s determination to boost oil production and refining in an effort to return the company to its former glory. Impacts Mexican hopes of boosting oil output will raise tensions with the OPEC+ group, which agreed to limit production in April. AMLO’s aversion to private investment in the oil sector is unlikely to change but low prices will weigh on investor interest anyway. Oil hedges will compensate for the price fall to some degree, but not entirely. Low oil prices and an inadequate economic policy will keep the peso undervalued.

Libyan unity government should ease economic pressures

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance The economy has faced major challenges recently: recurring disruptions to the oil and gas sector, state fragmentation and war between the government in Tripoli and the armed forces led by eastern commander Khalifa Haftar. Following agreements last year between Tripoli and Haftar to lift a nine-month oil blockade, oil production recovered sharply in the last quarter of 2020, reaching 1.28 million barrels per day (b/d) in December. Impacts The government may make ambitious new pledges on public and infrastructure spending. Major new projects will still be slow to materialise, though the prime minister is likely to initiate rebuilding projects. Plans for reconstruction projects will probably accelerate, but implementation will lag. The oil sector will manage infrastructure upgrades efficiently.

Wary investors will limit Iraqi Kurdish oil output

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil And Gas Fields ◽  
Petroleum Sector ◽  
Gas Fields

Subject Kurdistan Region of Iraq petroleum sector. Significance The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) petroleum sector has struggled to make progress in the context of local political and economic crises, the continuing fight against IS and some disappointing geological findings. Oil production is stagnant at around 600,000-650,000 barrels per day (bpd). Owing to persistent budgetary shortfalls, payments to international oil companies (IOCs) have faced delays. Impacts The defeat of Islamic State (IS) could open up potential oil and gas blocks in the Nineveh plains and around Kirkuk. The risk of conflict between Kurdish and Baghdad government forces over disputed oil and gas fields will rise. Worsening conflict in the Kurdish south-east of Turkey could endanger oil (and future gas) exports.

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