scholarly journals Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaye ◽  
Matt A Bahm ◽  
Andrea S Thorpe ◽  
Erin C Gray ◽  
Ian Pfingsten ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Rare Species ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Population Extinction ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Potential Signal

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, climate change, small population sizes, and long gaps between surveys may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size was negatively associated with extinction, while elevation and time between observations interacted such that low elevation populations were most vulnerable to extinction, but only over larger time spans. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 31%-56% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high climate vulnerability.

scholarly journals Microhabitats Affect Population Size and Plant Vigor of Three Critically Endangered Endemic Plants in Southern Sinai Mountains, Egypt

Land ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amal M. Fakhry ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Hatem A. Shabana ◽  
Ibrahim El Gamal ◽  
Amir Shalouf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Endemic Species ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
High Mountains ◽  
Habitat Types ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Steep Slopes

Endemic species on mountains often have narrow altitudinal ranges and are more threatened at the higher altitudes, especially with climate changes. However, plants could use special microhabitats at the mountain tops as proper places for surviving the climate change (i.e., refugia). We assessed population attributes of three critically endangered endemic species (Primula boveana Decne ex Duby, Rosa arabica Crep., and Silene leucophylla Boiss.) in two growing seasons (2006/2007 and 2013/2014), differing in the received rainfalls in microhabitats at the high mountains of southern Sinai. Both P. boveana and S. leucophylla had very small population size, but significantly increased in the 2013/2014 growing season which received above average rainfalls. The population of R. arabica is the smallest (around 40 individuals) and did not increase, even after the increase in rainfalls. Whereas P. boveana is present in fewer sites and grew in small number of specific microhabitats, both S. leucophylla and R. arabica were recorded in most studied sites and habitat types. Unlike R. arabica, both P. boveana and S. leucophylla were recorded in caves and steep slopes and on the top of the mountains. This indicates that these sheltered mist microhabitats are the best for future conservation of these species after climate change.

scholarly journals The natural and social history of the indigenous lands and protected areas corridor of the Xingu River basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 368 (1619) ◽  
pp. 20120164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Schwartzman ◽  
André Villas Boas ◽  
Katia Yukari Ono ◽  
Marisa Gesteira Fonseca ◽  
Juan Doblas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Social History ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Indigenous Populations ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
Indigenous Lands ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Road Paving

The 280 000 km² Xingu indigenous lands and protected areas (ILPAs) corridor, inhabited by 24 indigenous peoples and about 215 riverine (ribeirinho) families, lies across active agriculture frontiers in some of the historically highest-deforestation regions of the Amazon. Much of the Xingu is anthropogenic landscape, densely inhabited and managed by indigenous populations over the past millennium. Indigenous and riverine peoples' historical management and use of these landscapes have enabled their long-term occupation and ultimately their protection. The corridor vividly demonstrates how ILPAs halt deforestation and why they may account for a large part of the 70 per cent reduction in Amazon deforestation below the 1996–2005 average since 2005. However, ongoing and planned dams, road paving, logging and mining, together with increasing demand for agricultural commodities, continued degradation of upper headwaters outside ILPA borders and climate change impacts may render these gains ephemeral. Local peoples will need new, bottom-up, forms of governance to gain recognition for the high social and biological diversity of these territories in development policy and planning, and finance commensurate with the value of their ecosystem services. Indigenous groups' reports of changing fire and rainfall regimes may themselves evidence climate change impacts, a new and serious threat.

scholarly journals Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 367 (6478) ◽  
pp. 685-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Soroye ◽  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Jeremy Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Bumble Bee ◽  
Species Extinction ◽  
Population Extinction ◽  
Colonization Dynamics ◽  
Term Data ◽  
Related Population

Climate change could increase species’ extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species’ historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species’ extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species’ local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change–related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.

Population viability analysis on a native Danish cattle breed

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 105-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morten Hertz ◽  
Iben Ravnborg Jensen ◽  
Laura Østergaard Jensen ◽  
Iben Vejrum Nielsen ◽  
Jacob Winde ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bos Taurus ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Cattle Breed ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
Probability Of Survival ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Breeding Pool

SummaryMany domestic breeds face challenges concerning genetic variability, because of their small population sizes along with a high risk of inbreeding. Therefore, it is important to obtain knowledge on their extinction risk, along with the possible benefits of certain breeding strategies. Since many domestic breeds face the same problems, results from such studies can be applied across breeds and species. Here a Population Viability Analysis (PVA) was implemented to simulate the future probability of extinction for a population of the endangered Danish Jutland cattle (Bos taurus), based on the software Vortex. A PVA evaluates the extinction risk of a population by including threats and demographic values. According to the results from the PVA the population will go extinct after 122 years with the current management. Four scenarios were created to investigate which changes in the breeding scheme would have the largest effect on the survival probabilities, including Scenario 1: More females in the breeding pool, scenario 2: More males in the breeding pool, scenario 3: Increased carrying capacity, and scenario 4: Supplementing males to the population through artificial insemination using semen from bulls used in the populations in past generations. All scenarios showed a positive effect on the population's probability of survival, and with a combination of the different scenarios, the population size seems to be stabilized.

scholarly journals Breeding biology and population increase of the Endangered Bermuda Petrel Pterodroma cahow

2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
JEREMY MADEIROS ◽  
NICHOLAS CARLILE ◽  
DAVID PRIDDEL
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Breeding Success ◽  
Reproductive Output ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Storm Damage ◽  
Breeding Phenology ◽  
North East ◽  
Rate Of Increase

SummaryThe Bermuda Petrel Pterodroma cahow was thought to have become extinct early in the 17th century due to a combination of hunting by human colonists and predation by introduced rats, cats, dogs and pigs. However, single individuals were found on four occasions during the first half of the 20th century, and in 1951 a small population was discovered breeding on several rocky islets in north-east Bermuda. Recovery actions began in 1962 when the population numbered just 18 pairs, dispersed among five small islets. Although rats extirpated one of these five colonies in 1967, the population has grown steadily to 56 breeding pairs in 2000. We investigated the breeding phenology, productivity and population size of the Bermuda Petrel between 2000/2001 and 2007/2008. Each year, the birds began arriving in Bermuda around mid-October. They departed on a pre-breeding exodus between 19 November and 14 December, returning after 32–56 days to lay a single egg between 31 December and 31 January. Eggs hatched from 16 February to 26 March after a mean (± SD) incubation period of 53 ± 2 days, and young fledged from 15 May to 25 June after a mean fledging period of 91 ± 5 days. Between 2000/2001 and 2007/2008, reproductive output ranged from 29 to 40 fledglings per annum. Mean annual breeding success (62%) was reasonably high relative to other Procellariiformes, largely due to the provision of artificial (concrete) nesting burrows. In 2008, the population numbered 85 breeding pairs. Monitoring since 1961 indicates the population has been increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every 22 years. This rate of increase, together with the increased incidence of storm damage, is making it progressively more impracticable to construct sufficient concrete burrows on the current nesting islets to accommodate all breeding pairs. The vulnerability of these sites to accelerating storm damage and erosion as a result of anthropomorphic climate change is now the greatest threat to the Bermuda Petrel.

scholarly journals Evidence for r - and K -selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20152411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernt-Erik Sæther ◽  
Marcel E. Visser ◽  
Vidar Grøtan ◽  
Steinar Engen
Keyword(s):  
Density Dependence ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Clutch Size ◽  
Balancing Selection ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Fluctuating Environments ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Large Clutch

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r - and K -selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K . This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r - and K -selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size.

Genetics of reintroduced populations of the narrowly endemic thistle, Cirsium pitcheri (Asteraceae)

Botany ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 301-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremie B. Fant ◽  
Andrea Kramer ◽  
Eileen Sirkin ◽  
Kayri Havens
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Native Plant ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Inbreeding Coefficients ◽  
Native Populations ◽  
Population Sizes

The aim of any reintroduction is to provide sufficient genetic variability to buffer against changing selection pressures and ensure long-term survival. To date, few empirical studies have compared levels of genetic diversity in reintroduced and native plant populations. Using microsatellite markers, we measured the genetic diversity within reintroduced and native populations of the threatened Cirsium pitcher (Eaton) Torrey and Gray. We found that the use of local mixed source was successful in establishing populations with significantly higher genetic diversity (P < 0.005) than the native populations (allelic richness is 3.39 in reintroduced and 1.84 in native populations). However, the reintroduced populations had significantly higher inbreeding coefficients (P < 0.002) (FIS is 0.405 and 0.213 in reintroduced and in native populations, respectively), despite having multiple genetic founders, population sizes equivalent to native populations and a positive growth rate. These results may be due to inbreeding or the Wahlund effect, driven by genetic substructuring. This suggests that the small population size of these reintroduced populations may lead to genetic issues in the future, given the low number of flowering individuals each year. This highlights the importance of considering not only the number of source individuals but the effective population size of the reintroduction.

scholarly journals Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1793) ◽  
pp. 20141574 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Amano ◽  
Brody Sandel ◽  
Heidi Eager ◽  
Edouard Bulteau ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Geographical Patterns ◽  
Socioeconomic Drivers ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
The Tropics

Many of the world's languages face serious risk of extinction. Efforts to prevent this cultural loss are severely constrained by a poor understanding of the geographical patterns and drivers of extinction risk. We quantify the global distribution of language extinction risk—represented by small range and speaker population sizes and rapid declines in the number of speakers—and identify the underlying environmental and socioeconomic drivers. We show that both small range and speaker population sizes are associated with rapid declines in speaker numbers, causing 25% of existing languages to be threatened based on criteria used for species. Language range and population sizes are small in tropical and arctic regions, particularly in areas with high rainfall, high topographic heterogeneity and/or rapidly growing human populations. By contrast, recent speaker declines have mainly occurred at high latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines. However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth.

scholarly journals Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PLoS Biology ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. e1002281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elvire Bestion ◽  
Aimeric Teyssier ◽  
Murielle Richard ◽  
Jean Clobert ◽  
Julien Cote
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Population Extinction

Extinction risks and conservation status of Corybas (Orchidaceae; Orchidoideae; Diurideae) in Peninsular Malaysia

Phytotaxa ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 233 (3) ◽  
pp. 273 ◽  
Author(s):  
RUSEA GO ◽  
TAN MUI CHING ◽  
AHMAD AINNUDIN NURUDDIN ◽  
JANNA ONG ABDULLAH ◽  
NG YONG JIN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
In The Wild ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Herbarium Collections

Corybas is an elusive terrestrial orchid genus mostly inhabiting the high peaks in Peninsular Malaysia, which is the most vulnerable habitat to climate change. Nine species, of which seven are endemic, were studied based on natural populations, whereas information on another two was obtained from herbarium collections. Corybas caudatus was excluded from the study due to insufficient materials, and the type was not located. The species investigated were growing in small populations in the remaining moss-covered forests in the highlands. Human activities and temperature rise are two major threats to the wild populations. Our field observations revealed that Corybas species are good indicators of climate change as they are highly sensitive to temperature rise and drop in relative humidity. Judging from the current small number of specimens recollected, the small population sizes and degraded habitats where they grow, Corybas species in Peninsular Malaysia are all threatened by extinction in the wild.

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