Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

Elvire Bestion; Aimeric Teyssier; Murielle Richard; Jean Clobert; Julien Cote

doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1002281

Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents

Science ◽

10.1126/science.aax8591 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 367 (6478) ◽

pp. 685-688 ◽

Cited By ~ 44

Author(s):

Peter Soroye ◽

Tim Newbold ◽

Jeremy Kerr

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Bumble Bee ◽

Species Extinction ◽

Population Extinction ◽

Colonization Dynamics ◽

Term Data ◽

Related Population

Climate change could increase species’ extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species’ historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species’ extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species’ local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change–related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.

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Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

10.1101/506006 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas Kaye ◽

Matt A Bahm ◽

Andrea S Thorpe ◽

Erin C Gray ◽

Ian Pfingsten ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Population Size ◽

Rare Species ◽

Biological Diversity ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Small Population ◽

Population Extinction ◽

Population Sizes ◽

Potential Signal

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, climate change, small population sizes, and long gaps between surveys may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size was negatively associated with extinction, while elevation and time between observations interacted such that low elevation populations were most vulnerable to extinction, but only over larger time spans. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 31%-56% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high climate vulnerability.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.1004751.370797 ◽

2006 ◽

Author(s):

Kai Chan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extinction Risk

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Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽

10.3390/biology10010063 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 63

Author(s):

Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽

Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽

Walaa A. Hassan ◽

Ali El-Keblawy ◽

Kaiwen Pan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

In Situ Conservation ◽

Integrative Approach ◽

Conservation Assessment ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Area Of Occupancy ◽

Annual Range ◽

The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

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Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

Communications Biology ◽

10.1038/s42003-021-01665-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Julián A. Velasco ◽

Francisco Estrada ◽

Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽

Didier Swingedouw ◽

Carolina Ureta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Thermohaline Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Amphibian Species ◽

Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

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Reflections on a seminal paper in conservation biology: the legacy of Peters and Darling (1985)

Pacific Conservation Biology ◽

10.1071/pc18004 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 267

Author(s):

Lesley Hughes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Conservation Biology ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Logical Framework ◽

Natural Ecosystems ◽

Seminal Paper ◽

Species Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Species Translocation ◽

Rapid Environmental Change

‘The Greenhouse Effect and Nature Reserves’ by Robert Peters and Joan Darling, published in the journal Bioscience more than 30 years ago, was a ground-breaking synthesis. Drawing on paleoecology, community ecology and biogeography, the review laid out many concepts about species vulnerability to climate change that have become central tenets of research on climate change adaptation in natural ecosystems. Remarkably, the paper also provided a clear and logical framework for flexible, forward-thinking and interventionist management action, including recommendations about the design of protected areas, and the need for species translocation to reduce extinction risk. Reflecting on the legacy of this paper, it is clear that the uptake of such approaches over the intervening decades has been extremely slow, representing many lost opportunities to reduce species vulnerability to rapid environmental change. This paper is a tribute to the prescience of Peters and Darling, and a call to revisit their farsighted advice to meet conservation challenges that continue to accelerate.

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Local extinction risk of three species of lizard from Patagonia as a result of global warming

Canadian Journal of Zoology ◽

10.1139/cjz-2015-0024 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 94 (1) ◽

pp. 49-59 ◽

Cited By ~ 32

Author(s):

E.L. Kubisch ◽

V. Corbalán ◽

N.R. Ibargüengoytía ◽

B. Sinervo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Physiological Model ◽

Single Equation ◽

Reproductive Period ◽

Local Extinction ◽

Physiological Constraints ◽

Local Warming ◽

Environmental Temperatures ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Recently, Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328: 894–899) reported declines of lizard biodiversity due to local warming trends and altered thermal niches. Herein, we applied the Sinervo et al. (2010) physiological model to predict the local extinction risk of three species of lizard from Patagonia. Whereas the previous model used a single equation (for the extinctions of Blue Spiny Lizard (Sceloporus serrifer Cope, 1866) in the Yucatan Peninsula) relating environmental temperatures (Te) to hours of restriction (i.e., the period when lizards are forced into retreat sites because environmental temperatures are too high), we measured habitat-specific equations for the Te values of each species. We analyzed the vulnerability of Darwin’s Ground Gecko (Homonota darwinii Boulenger, 1885), Bariloche Lizard (Liolaemus pictus (Duméril and Bibron, 1837)), and Mountain Slope Lizard (Liolaemus elongatus Koslowsky, 1896) to climate change considering thermal physiological constraints on activity during the reproductive period. While Sinervo et al. (2010) predicted that the Phyllodactylidae family will not suffer from impacts of climate change, our physiological model predicted that 20% of the H. darwinii populations could become extinct by 2080. The physiological model also predicted that 15% of L. pictus populations and 26.5% of L. elongatus populations could become extinct by 2080. The most vulnerable populations are those located near the northern and eastern boundaries of their distributions.

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Extinction risk of narrowly distributed species of seed plants in Brazil due to habitat loss and climate change

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.7333 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

pp. e7333 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

José Maria Cardoso da Silva ◽

Alessandro Rapini ◽

Luis Cláudio F. Barbosa ◽

Roger R. Torres

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Habitat Loss ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Seed Plants ◽

Conservation Action ◽

Species Extinction ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation

In a world where changes in land cover and climate happen faster than ever due to the expansion of human activities, narrowly distributed species are predicted to be the first to go extinct. Studies projecting species extinction in tropical regions consider either habitat loss or climate change as drivers of biodiversity loss but rarely evaluate them together. Here, the contribution of these two factors to the extinction risk of narrowly distributed species (with ranges smaller than 10,000 km2) of seed plants endemic to a fifth-order watershed in Brazil (microendemics) is assessed. We estimated the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) of these watersheds (areas with microendemics) and projected three scenarios of land use up to the year 2100 based on the average annual rates of habitat loss in these watersheds from 2000 to 2014. These scenarios correspond to immediate conservation action (scenario 1), long-term conservation action (scenario 2), and no conservation action (scenario 3). In each scenario, areas with microendemics were classified into four classes: (1) areas with low risk, (2) areas threatened by habitat loss, (3) areas threatened by climate change, and (4) areas threatened by climate change and habitat loss. We found 2,354 microendemic species of seed plants in 776 areas that altogether cover 17.5% of Brazil. Almost 70% (1,597) of these species are projected to be under high extinction risk by the end of the century due to habitat loss, climate change, or both, assuming that these areas will not lose habitat in the future due to land use. However, if habitat loss in these areas continues at the prevailing annual rates, the number of threatened species is projected to increase to more than 85% (2,054). The importance of climate change and habitat loss as drivers of species extinction varies across phytogeographic domains, and this variation requires the adoption of retrospective and prospective conservation strategies that are context specific. We suggest that tropical countries, such as Brazil, should integrate biodiversity conservation and climate change policies (both mitigation and adaptation) to achieve win-win social and environmental gains while halting species extinction.

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