scholarly journals Potential Demand for Respirators and Surgical Masks During a Hypothetical Influenza Pandemic in the United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 60 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S42-S51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Carias ◽  
Gabriel Rainisch ◽  
Manjunath Shankar ◽  
Bishwa B. Adhikari ◽  
David L. Swerdlow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surgical Masks ◽  
Potential Demand

scholarly journals Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States

Epidemics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 86-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Kissler ◽  
Julia R. Gog ◽  
Cécile Viboud ◽  
Vivek Charu ◽  
Ottar N. Bjørnstad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The United States ◽  
2009 Influenza Pandemic

scholarly journals Influenza Circulation in United States Army Training Camps Before and During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Clues to Early Detection of Pandemic Viral Emergence

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel S. Chertow ◽  
Rongman Cai ◽  
Junfeng Sun ◽  
John Grantham ◽  
Jeffery K. Taubenberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World War I ◽  
United States Army ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
1918 Influenza

Abstract Background.  Surveillance for respiratory diseases in domestic National Army and National Guard training camps began after the United States’ entry into World War I, 17 months before the “Spanish influenza” pandemic appeared. Methods.  Morbidity, mortality, and case-fatality data from 605 625 admissions and 18 258 deaths recorded for 7 diagnostic categories of respiratory diseases, including influenza and pneumonia, were examined over prepandemic and pandemic periods. Results.  High pandemic influenza mortality was primarily due to increased incidence of, but not increased severity of, secondary bacterial pneumonias. Conclusions.  Two prepandemic incidence peaks of probable influenza, in December 1917–January 1918 and in March–April 1918, differed markedly from the September–October 1918 pandemic onset peak in their clinical-epidemiologic features, and they may have been caused by seasonal or endemic viruses. Nevertheless, rising proportions of very low incidence postinfluenza bronchopneumonia (diagnosed at the time as influenza and bronchopneumonia) in early 1918 could have reflected circulation of the pandemic virus 5 months before it emerged in pandemic form. In this study, we discuss the possibility of detecting pandemic viruses before they emerge, by surveillance of special populations.

Should Tamiflu™ be stockpiled locally?

2006 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Sandro Cinti, MD ◽  
Gerald Blackburn, DO
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The United States ◽  
H5n1 Avian Influenza ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Federal Response

The outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in Asia raises serious concerns about an influenza pandemic of the kind seen in 1918. In addition, the recent federal response to Hurricane Katrina highlights the need for advanced local preparation for biological disasters. It is clear that there will not be enough vaccine early in an influenza pandemic. Without vaccine, the role of antivirals, especially oseltamivir (Tamiflu™), in treatment and prophylaxis becomes of paramount importance. It is unlikely that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will be able to stockpile enough oseltamivir to protect every first responder in the United States. Thus, it is important that local governments and hospitals consider stockpiling oseltamivir for the treatment and/or prophylaxis of local first responders.

scholarly journals Pandemic H1N1 influenza: predicting the course of a pandemic and assessing the efficacy of the planned vaccination programme in the United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (41) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Towers ◽  
Z Feng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
H1n1 Influenza ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pandemic H1n1 ◽  
Pandemic H1n1 Influenza ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Control And Prevention

We use data on confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), disseminated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(US CDC), to fit the parameters of a seasonally forced Susceptible, Infective, Recovered (SIR) model. We use the resulting model to predict the course of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in autumn 2009, and we assess the efficacy of the planned CDC H1N1 vaccination campaign. The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.

scholarly journals Racial Disparities in Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in United States Cities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Eiermann ◽  
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field ◽  
James J. Feigenbaum ◽  
Jonas Helgertz ◽  
Elaine Hernandez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Racial Disparities ◽  
Early Life ◽  
Racial Inequality ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Careful Examination ◽  
Unexpected Result ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors

The 1918 influenza pandemic stands out because of the unusual age pattern of high mortality. In the United States, another feature merits scientific scrutiny: against a historical backdrop of extreme racial health inequality, the pandemic produced strikingly small ratios of nonwhite to white influenza and pneumonia mortality. We provide the most complete account to date of these racial disparities in 1918, showing that, across U.S. cities, they were almost uniformly small. We examine four potential explanations for this unexpected result, including [1] socio-demographic factors like segregation, [2] city-level implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), [3] exposure to the milder spring 1918 “herald wave,” and [4] early-life exposures to other influenza strains resulting in differential immunological vulnerability to the 1918 flu. While we find little evidence for 1-3, we offer suggestive evidence that racial variation in early-life exposure to the 1889-1892 influenza pandemic shrunk racial disparities during the 1918 pandemic. We also raise the possibility that differential behavioral responses to the herald wave may have protected nonwhite urban populations. By providing a comprehensive description and careful examination of the potential drivers of racial inequality in mortality during the 1918 pandemic, our study provides a framework to consider interactions between the natural history of particular microbial agents and the social histories of the populations they infect.

scholarly journals The US Public Health Service House-to-House Canvass Survey of the Morbidity and Mortality of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

2020 ◽  
pp. e1-e8
Author(s):  
Alfredo Morabia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Public Health Service ◽  
San Antonio ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Based ◽  
The Us

Between November 20, 1918, and March 12, 1919, the US Public Health Service carried out a vast population-based survey to assess the incidence rate and mortality of the influenza pandemic among 146 203 persons in 18 localities across the United States. The survey attempted to retrospectively assess all self-reported or diagnosed cases of influenza since August 1, 1918. It indicated that the cumulative incidence of symptomatic influenza over 6 months had been 29.4% (range = 15% in Louisville, KY, to 53.3% in San Antonio, TX). The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 1.70%, and it ranged from 0.78% in San Antonio to 3.14% in New London, Connecticut. Localities with high cumulative incidence were not necessarily those with high CFR. Overall, assuming the survey missed asymptomatic cases, between August 1, 1918, and February 21, 1919, maybe more than 50% of the population was infected, and about 1% of the infected died. Eight months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has not yet launched a survey that would provide population-based estimates of incidence and CFRs analogous to those generated by the 1918 US Public Health Service house-to-house canvass survey of influenza. Published online ahead of print December 8, 2020: 1–8. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306025 )

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of widespread respirator use in curtailing COVID-19 transmission in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calistus N Ngonghala ◽  
James R Knitter ◽  
Lucas Marinacci ◽  
Matthew H Bonds ◽  
Abba B Gumel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Respiratory Protection ◽  
The Third ◽  
Surgical Masks ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Dynamic models are used to assess the impact of three types of face masks − cloth masks, surgical/procedure masks and respirators − in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. We showed that the pandemic would have failed to establish in the US if a nationwide mask mandate, based on using respirators with moderately-high compliance, had been implemented during the first two months of the pandemic. The other mask types would fail to prevent the pandemic from becoming established. When mask usage compliance is low to moderate, respirators are far more effective in reducing disease burden. Using data from the third wave, we showed that the epidemic could be eliminated in the US if at least 40% of the population consistently wore respirators in public. Surgical masks can also lead to elimination, but requires compliance of at least 55%. Daily COVID-19 mortality could be eliminated in the US by June or July 2021 if 95% of the population opted for either respirators or surgical masks from the beginning of the third wave. We showed that the prospect of effective control or elimination of the pandemic using mask-based strategy is greatly enhanced if combined with other nonpharmaceutical interventions that significantly reduce the baseline community transmission. This study further emphasizes the role of human behavior towards masking on COVID-19 burden, and highlights the urgent need to maintain a healthy stockpile of highly-effective respiratory protection, particularly respirators, to be made available to the general public in times of future outbreaks or pandemics of respiratory diseases that inflict severe public health and socio-economic burden on the population.

scholarly journals California and the 1918–1920 Influenza Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-36
Author(s):  
Diane M. T. North
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World War I ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Medical Science ◽  
The United States ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
World War ◽  
Military Installations

The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic remains the deadliest influenza pandemic in recorded history. It started in the midst of World War I and killed an estimated 50–100 million people worldwide, many from complications of pneumonia. Approximately 500 million, or one-third of the world's population, became infected. In the United States, an estimated 850,000 died. The exceptionally contagious, unknown strain of influenza virus spread rapidly and attacked all ages, but it especially targeted young adults (ages twenty to forty-four). This essay examines the evolution of four waves of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic, emphasizes the role of the U.S. Navy and sea travel as the initial transmitters of the virus in the United States, and focuses on California communities and military installations as a case study in the response to the crisis. Although the world war, limited medical science, and the unknown nature of the virus made it extremely difficult to fight the disease, the responses of national, state, and community leaders to the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic can provide useful lessons in 2020, as the onslaught of COVID-19 forces people worldwide to confront a terrible illness and death.

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