scholarly journals The Estimation of Transmitted Drug Resistance Mutation Strains Probability in the Treatment of HIV Using the Beta-Binomial Model

Author(s):  
Urban Haankuku ◽  
Peter Njuho
2014 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 19753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milosz Parczewski ◽  
Magdalena Witak-Jedra ◽  
Katarzyna Maciejewska ◽  
Monika Bociaga-Jasik ◽  
Pawel Skwara ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 73 (7) ◽  
pp. 1930-1934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Rachel Leda ◽  
James Hunter ◽  
Ursula Castro Oliveira ◽  
Inacio Junqueira Azevedo ◽  
Maria Cecilia Araripe Sucupira ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Urban Haankuku ◽  
Peter Njuho

Abstract Background The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a viral infection that destroys the human immune system resulting in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The Zambia HIV prevalence rate is among the highest in the sub-Saharan Africa. With no HIV vaccine and cure for HIV/AIDS, the antiretroviral (ARV) therapy that slows the spread of the virus remains the only option. The administration of ARV has challenges of Transmitted Drug Resistance Mutation strains (TDRMs) in the treatment of HIV naïve patients. To address these challenges, we propose use of transition probabilities when prescribing a switch from first-line to second-line or to third-line regimen on ARV drugs combination. Methods We formulate a statistical technique for determining an optimal ARV drugs combination. Using data from the Zambia National Health Research Authority, we compute transition probability matrix chart on ARV therapy combination of the first and second baseline regimens using a Beta-Binomial Hierarchical model. We check parameter convergence using history and density plots, and check model adequacy using the deviation information criteria. Results The estimates converge to the fitted model as demonstrated by the history and density plots. The transition probability matrices corresponding to, TDF+ETC+NVP, TDF+FTC+EFV, AZT+3TC+NVP, AZT+3TC+EFV, D4T+3TC+NVP and D4T+3TC+EFV provide an upper triangular matrix of the probabilities. We observe a higher probability of remaining in the same regimen state than that of moving to another state. The computed transition probability matrix chart aid in deciding on the most effective combination to prescribe to a patient, in the presence of TDRM test results. Based on transition probabilities TDF+ETC+NVP, TDF+FTC+EFV, AZT+3TC+EFV and D4T+3TC+EFV cannot be prescribed to the patients who test K101 E and 115Y F strains. The available option to the patients’ remains either AZT + 3TC + NVP or D4T + 3TC + NVP. Combination AZT + 3TC + NVP with success probability of 0.97027 should be prescribed to the patient. Conclusion The transmission probabilities play a major role in aiding the physicians make an informed decision when prescribing an optimal drug combination. All newly diagnosed HIV individuals should have a TDRM test before any prescription on ARV therapy combination is made.


Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1238
Author(s):  
Marta Pingarilho ◽  
Victor Pimentel ◽  
Isabel Diogo ◽  
Sandra Fernandes ◽  
Mafalda Miranda ◽  
...  

Introduction: Treatment for All recommendations have allowed access to antiretroviral (ARV) treatment for an increasing number of patients. This minimizes the transmission of infection but can potentiate the risk of transmitted (TDR) and acquired drug resistance (ADR). Objective: To study the trends of TDR and ADR in patients followed up in Portuguese hospitals between 2001 and 2017. Methods: In total, 11,911 patients of the Portuguese REGA database were included. TDR was defined as the presence of one or more surveillance drug resistance mutation according to the WHO surveillance list. Genotypic resistance to ARV was evaluated with Stanford HIVdb v7.0. Patterns of TDR, ADR and the prevalence of mutations over time were analyzed using logistic regression. Results and Discussion: The prevalence of TDR increased from 7.9% in 2003 to 13.1% in 2017 (p < 0.001). This was due to a significant increase in both resistance to nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and non-nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), from 5.6% to 6.7% (p = 0.002) and 2.9% to 8.9% (p < 0.001), respectively. TDR was associated with infection with subtype B, and with lower viral load levels (p < 0.05). The prevalence of ADR declined from 86.6% in 2001 to 51.0% in 2017 (p < 0.001), caused by decreasing drug resistance to all antiretroviral (ARV) classes (p < 0.001). Conclusions: While ADR has been decreasing since 2001, TDR has been increasing, reaching a value of 13.1% by the end of 2017. It is urgently necessary to develop public health programs to monitor the levels and patterns of TDR in newly diagnosed patients.


ACS Omega ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (9) ◽  
pp. 12132-12140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres Wong-Sam ◽  
Yuan-Fang Wang ◽  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Arun K. Ghosh ◽  
Robert W. Harrison ◽  
...  

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