The Opportunity Costs of Mandatory Military Service: Evidence from a Draft Lottery

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Bingley ◽  
Petter Lundborg ◽  
Stéphanie Vincent Lyk-Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Military Service ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Draft Lottery

scholarly journals Schooling and the Vietnam-Era GI Bill: Evidence from the Draft Lottery

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 96-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua D Angrist ◽  
Stacey H Chen
Keyword(s):  
Vietnam Veterans ◽  
Military Service ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Middle Age ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Gi Bill ◽  
Economic Return ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Vietnam Era ◽  
Draft Lottery

Draft-lottery estimates of the causal effects of Vietnam-era military service using 2000 census data show marked schooling gains for veterans. We argue that these gains can be attributed to Vietnam veterans' use of the GI Bill rather than draft avoidance behavior. At the same time, draft lottery estimates of the earnings consequences of Vietnam-era service are close to zero in 2000. The earnings and schooling results can be reconciled by a flattening of the age-earnings profile in middle age and a modest economic return to the schooling subsidized by the GI Bill. Other long-run consequences of Vietnam-era service include increases in migration and public sector employment. (JEL H52, I22, I23, J24, J31, J45)

scholarly journals Long-term Consequences of Vietnam-Era Conscription: New Estimates Using Social Security Data

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 334-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua D Angrist ◽  
Stacey H Chen ◽  
Jae Song
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Military Service ◽  
Rapid Convergence ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Vietnam Era ◽  
Disability Status ◽  
Draft Lottery ◽  
Social Security Disability ◽  
The Impact

We use the draft lottery to construct instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the impact of Vietnam-era military service on veterans' Social Security (SSA) earnings through 2007. We also use SSA data to construct IV estimates for employment (as measured by an indicator for positive earnings) and disability status (as measured by an indicator for social security disability program application). New findings for recent years show surprisingly rapid convergence in veteran and nonveteran earnings: by the early 1990s, there was no longer a substantial Vietnam-era conscription penalty. The IV estimates also show no effect on employment or disability rates.

The Effect of Smoking in Young Adulthood on Smoking Later in Life: Evidence based on the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Eisenberg ◽  
Brian Rowe
Keyword(s):  
Cigarette Smoking ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Young Adulthood ◽  
Military Service ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Unresolved Question ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Vietnam Era ◽  
Draft Lottery

An important, unresolved question for health policymakers and consumers is whether cigarette smoking in young adulthood has lasting effects into later adulthood. The Vietnam era draft lottery offers an opportunity to address this question, because it randomly assigned young men to be more likely to experience conditions favoring cigarette consumption, including highly subsidized prices. Using this natural experiment, we find that military service increased the probability of smoking by 35 percentage points as of 1978-80, when men in the relevant cohorts were aged 25-30, but later in adulthood this effect was substantially attenuated and did not lead to large negative health effects.

The War at Home: Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on Postwar Household Stability

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dalton Conley ◽  
Jennifer Heerwig
Keyword(s):  
Military Service ◽  
Extended Family ◽  
Community Survey ◽  
Psychological Effects ◽  
Housing Tenure ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
American Community Survey ◽  
Vietnam Era ◽  
Veteran Status ◽  
Draft Lottery

Prior researchers have deployed the Vietnam-era draft lottery as an instrument to estimate causal effects of military service on health and earnings. However, household and residential outcomes may be more sensitive to the psychological effects of military service. Using 2SLS analyses of the 2000 Census and the 2005 American Community Survey, we find mixed results for residential stability, housing tenure, and extended family residence. While in the ACS white veterans are less mobile, veteran status has no effect on homeownership. Veteran status reduces extended family living for whites in the Census but increases it for ACS veterans of “other” races.

Military Experience and Elite Decision-Making: Self-Selection, Socialization, and the Vietnam Draft Lottery

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danielle L Lupton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Military Service ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Military Experience ◽  
Self Selection ◽  
Draft Lottery ◽  
Vietnam Draft ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Scholars across international relations (IR) debate the role military experience plays in elite decision-making. I argue there are two critical problems with this debate. First, it fails to adequately consider the underlying mechanisms linking military service to elite policy preferences. Second, it narrowly focuses on the use of force and largely ignores other ways in which military experience may shape elite behavior. I employ vulnerability to the Vietnam draft lottery to disentangle the impact of two key mechanisms linking military service to elite preferences: self-selection and socialization. I compare the foreign and defense policy roll call votes of Members of Congress (MCs) in the House of Representatives across the 94th–113th Congresses who were eligible for the draft and served in the military to those who were eligible for the draft but did not serve. I find significant differences in the roll call voting behavior between these groups, particularly on issues associated with arming and defense budget restrictions, as well as broader oversight of the military. These effects are heightened for MCs who served on active duty, in the military longer, and in combat, providing strong support for socialization effects. My study carries implications for civil–military relations, elite decision-making, and the study of leaders in IR.

scholarly journals Un-Fortunate Sons: Effects of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on the Next Generation’s Labor Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 182-209
Author(s):  
Sarena Goodman ◽  
Adam Isen
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Life Course ◽  
Military Service ◽  
Labor Market Outcomes ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tax Returns ◽  
Draft Lottery ◽  
Vietnam Draft ◽  
The Universe

We examine whether the considerable shock generated by the Vietnam draft lottery affected the next generation’s labor market. Using the universe of US federal tax returns, we link fathers from draft cohorts to their sons’ adult outcomes and find that sons of fathers randomly called by the draft have lower earnings and are more likely to volunteer for military service. Our results demonstrate that malleable aspects of a parent’s life course can influence children’s labor market outcomes and provide sound evidence that policies that only directly alter the circumstances of one generation can have important long-run effects on the next. (JEL J22, J31, J45)

Mathematical models of temporal mixing in the fossil record

1993 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 169-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan H. Cutler
Keyword(s):  
Military Service ◽  
Service System ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Birth Date ◽  
Spearman Rank Correlation ◽  
Selective Service ◽  
Selective Service System ◽  
Draft Lottery ◽  
Old Men ◽  
The U.S

In December 1969 officials from the U.S. Selective Service System conducted a draft lottery to establish the order in which nineteen-year-old men were to be called for military service. Three hundred sixty-six capsules, one for each possible birthday, were placed in a large wooden box. As the capsules for each month were added to the box, the contents of the box were mixed. Once all 366 capsules were in the box, it was shaken several times and emptied into a deep bowl. Capsules were then drawn from the bowl to determine the draft number corresponding to each date. Observers were satisfied that the capsules had been thoroughly mixed, but, as it turned out, the results were anything but random. The Spearman rank correlation between birth date and draft number was significant at the.001 level – men with December birthdays had a significantly higher probability of being called than did those with January birthdays (Fienberg, 1971).

Vulnerability to Draft and Attitudes toward Troop Withdrawal from Indochina: Replication and Refinement

1974 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 407-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry M. Staw ◽  
William W. Notz ◽  
Thomas D. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Military Service ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Draft Lottery ◽  
Indochina War

493 men recorded their opinions about when troops should be withdrawn from Indochina both before and after they were assigned a random draft lottery number. Persons assigned higher draft numbers which exempted them from military service advocated speedier withdrawal than did persons assigned numbers in the middle of the distribution. This effect replicated a finding from earlier research and was interpreted within a dissonance/equity framework. The present study also showed that persons with lower draft numbers (and the highest chance of being called into military service) wanted speedier withdrawal than did persons with middle numbers. This second finding was not obtained in previous research and was interpreted in terms of self-interest. The present study refined earlier results since greater advocacy of withdrawal by persons with both high and low numbers was restricted to those who initially advocated early troop withdrawal from Indochina. It is likely that information pertaining to one's vulnerability to the draft entailed greater consequences for those initially opposed to the Indochina War than for those relatively more supportive of it.

scholarly journals Conscription and Crime: Evidence from the Argentine Draft Lottery

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Galiani ◽  
Martín A Rossi ◽  
Ernesto Schargrodsky
Keyword(s):  
Military Service ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Young Men ◽  
Criminal Record ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Criminal Records ◽  
Mandatory Participation ◽  
Draft Lottery

We estimate the causal effect of mandatory participation in military service on individuals' subsequent involvement in criminal activities. To identify this causal effect, we exploit the random assignment of young men to conscription in Argentina through a draft lottery. Using a dataset that includes draft eligibility, participation in military service, and criminal records, we find that conscription increases the likelihood of developing a criminal record. The effects are significant not only for cohorts that provided military service during wartime, but also for those that served during peacetime. Our results do not support the introduction of conscription for anti-crime purposes. JEL (H56, K42, O17)

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document