Simulating the effectiveness of prescribed burning at altering wildfire behaviour in Tasmania, Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
James M. Furlaud ◽  
Grant J. Williamson ◽  
David M. J. S. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Treatment Scenario ◽  
Wildfire Hazard

Prescribed burning is a widely accepted wildfire hazard reduction technique; however, knowledge of its effectiveness remains limited. To address this, we employ simulations of a widely used fire behaviour model across the ecologically diverse Australian island state of Tasmania. We simulate three broad scenarios: (1) no fuel treatment, (2) a maximal treatment, with the most possible prescribed burning within ecological constraints, and (3) 12 hypothetically more implementable state-wide prescribed-burning plans. In all simulations, we standardised fire-weather inputs to represent regionally typical dangerous fire-weather conditions. Statistical modelling showed that an unrealistically large maximal treatment scenario could reduce fire intensity in three flammable vegetation types, and reduce fire probability in almost every vegetation type. However, leverage analysis of the 12 more-realistic implementable plans indicated that such prescribed burning would have only a minimal effect, if any, on fire extent and that none of these prescribed-burning plans substantially reduced fire intensity. The study highlights that prescribed burning can theoretically mitigate wildfire, but that an unrealistically large area would need to be treated to affect fire behaviour across the island. Rather, optimisation of prescribed burning requires careful landscape design at the local scale. Such designs should be based on improved fire behaviour modelling, empirical measurement of fuels and analysis of actual wildfires.

scholarly journals Fire behaviour in south-western Australian shrublands: evaluating the influence of fuel age and fire weather

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph B. Fontaine ◽  
Vanessa C. Westcott ◽  
Neal J. Enright ◽  
Janneke C. Lade ◽  
Ben P. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Rate Of Spread

Fuel age (time since last fire) is often used to approximate fire hazard and informs decisions on placement of shrubland management burns worldwide. However, uncertainty remains concerning the relative importance of fuel age and weather conditions as predictors of fire hazard and behaviour. Using data from 35 experimental burns across three types of shrublands in Western Australia, we evaluated importance of fuel age and fire weather on probability of fire propagation (hazard) and four metrics of fire behaviour (rate of spread, fireline intensity, residence time, surface temperature) under moderate to high fire danger weather conditions. We found significant support for a threshold effect of fuel age for fire propagation but limited evidence for an effect of fuel age or fire weather on rates of spread or fireline intensity, although surface heating and heating duration were significantly related to fuel age and shrubland type. Further analysis suggested that dead fuel mass and accumulation rate rather than live fuels were responsible for this relationship. Using BEHAVE, predicted spread rates and intensities were consistently lower than observed values, suggesting further refinement is needed in modelling shrubland fire behaviour. These data provide important insight into fire behaviour in globally significant, fire-adapted shrublands, informing fire management and relationships between fire frequency and fire intensity.

Fuel and fire characteristics in savanna - woodland of West Africa in relation to grazing and dominant grass type

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrice Savadogo ◽  
Didier Zida ◽  
Louis Sawadogo ◽  
Daniel Tiveau ◽  
Mulualem Tigabu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Savanna Woodland ◽  
Vegetation Height ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Dominant Grass

Fuel characteristics, fire behaviour and temperature were studied in relation to grazing, dominant grass type and wind direction in West African savanna–woodland by lighting 32 prescribed early fires. Grazing significantly reduced the vegetation height, total fuel load, and dead and live fuel fractions whereas plots dominated by perennial grasses had higher values for vegetation height, total fuel load and the quantity of live fuel load. Although fire intensity remained insensitive (P > 0.05) to any of these factors, fuel consumption was significantly (P = 0.021) reduced by grazing, rate of spread was faster in head fire (P = 0.012), and flame length was shorter in head fire than back fire (P = 0.044). The average maximum temperature was higher (P < 0.05) on non-grazed plots, on plots dominated by annual grasses, on plots subjected to head fire, and at the soil surface. Lethal temperature residence time showed a nearly similar trend to fire temperature. Wind speed and total fuel load were best predictors of fire behaviour parameters (R2 ranging from 0.557 to 0.862). It can be concluded that grazing could be used as a management tool to modify fire behaviour, back fire should be carried out during prescribed burning to lower fire severity, and the fire behaviour models can be employed to guide prescribed early fire in the study area.

scholarly journals Regional seasonality of fire size and fire weather conditions across Australia's northern savanna

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin J. Perry ◽  
Garry D. Cook ◽  
Erin Graham ◽  
C. P. (Mick) Meyer ◽  
Helen T. Murphy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Spatial Consistency ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Extreme Fire

Australia’s northern savannas have among the highest fire frequencies in the world. The climate is monsoonal, with a long, dry season of up to 9 months, during which most fires occur. The Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund allows land managers to generate carbon credits by abating the direct emissions of CO2 equivalent gases via prescribed burning that shifts the fire regime from predominantly large, high-intensity late dry season fires to a more benign, early dry season fire regime. However, the Australian savannas are vast and there is significant variation in weather conditions and seasonality, which is likely to result in spatial and temporal variations in the commencement and length of late dry season conditions. Here, we assess the temporal and spatial consistency of the commencement of late dry season conditions, defined as those months that maximise fire size and where the most extreme fire weather conditions exist. The results demonstrate that significant yearly, seasonal and spatial variations in fire size and fire weather conditions exist, both within and between bioregions. The effective start of late dry season conditions, as defined by those months that maximise fire size and where the most extreme fire weather variables exist, is variable across the savannas.

The role of weather, past fire and topography in crown fire occurrence in eastern Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Storey ◽  
Owen Price ◽  
Elizabeth Tasker
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Fuel Accumulation ◽  
Behaviour Models

We analysed the influence of weather, time since fire (TSF) and topography on the occurrence of crown fire, as mapped from satellite imagery, in 23 of the largest wildfires in dry sclerophyll forests in eastern Australia from 2002 to 2013. Fires were analysed both individually and as groups. Fire weather was the most important predictor of crown consumption. TSF (a surrogate for fuel accumulation) had complex nonlinear effects that varied among fires. Crown fire likelihood was low up to 4 years post-fire, peaked at ~10 years post-fire and then declined. There was no clear indication that recent burning became more or less effective as fire weather became more severe. Steeper slope reduced crown fire likelihood, contrary to the assumptions of common fire behaviour equations. More exposed areas (ridges and plains) had higher crown fire likelihood. Our results suggest prescribed burning to maintain an average of 10 years’ TSF may actually increase crown fire likelihood, but burning much more frequently can be effective for risk reduction. Our results also suggest the effects of weather, TSF and slope are not adequately represented in the underlying equations of most fire behaviour models, potentially leading to poor prediction of fire spread and risk.

Fire Regime and the Abundance of Red Pine

1993 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 241 ◽  
Author(s):  
MD Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Red Pine ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Forward Stepwise

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) is a fire-dependent species. This study examines the relationship between the fire regime and the abundance of red pine. The fire regime is represented by components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System and outputs from the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction System as well as the average area burned and the percentage of conifers of each forest section. Extreme as well as averages values were used in this analysis as a large forest fire is a rare event that can occur on only a few days of the year under extreme fire weather conditions. Results from a forward-stepwise regression explained about 70% of die variance in red pine volume (abundance) data. Variables selected in the regression analysis included extreme headfire intensity, area burned and average drought code. These results suggest that abundance of red pine and other fire affected tree species is directly related to the aspects of the fire regime such as fire intensity.

A patch mosaic burning system for conservation areas in southern African savannas

2001 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 169 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.H. Brockett ◽  
H.C. Biggs ◽  
B.W. van Wilgen
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Conservation Areas ◽  
Percentage Area

Fire-prone savanna ecosystems in southern African conservation areas are managed by prescribed burning in order to conserve biodiversity. A prescribed burning system designed to maximise the benefits of a diverse fire regime in savanna conservation areas is described. The area burnt per year is a function of the grass fuel load, and the number of fires per year is a function of the percentage area burnt. Fires are point-ignited, under a range of fuel and weather conditions, and allowed to burn out by themselves. The seasonal distribution of planned fires over a year is dependent on the number of fires. Early dry season fires (May–June) tend to be small because fuels have not yet fully cured, while late season fires (August–November) are larger. More fires are ignited in the early dry season, with fewer in the late dry season. The seasonality, area burnt, and fire intensity are spatially and temporally varied across a landscape. This should result in the creation of mosaics, which should vary in extent and existence in time. Envelopes for the accumulated percentage to be burnt per month, over the specified fire season, together with upper and lower buffers to the target area are proposed. The system was formalised after 8 years of development and testing in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. The spatial heterogeneity of fire patterns increased over the latter years of implementation. This fire management system is recommended for savanna conservation areas of >20 000 ha in size.

Development and validation of a model for predicting fire behaviour in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Burrows ◽  
Malcolm Gill ◽  
Jason Sharples
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Wildfire Suppression ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Large wildfires are common in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia. Threat mitigation measures including fire preparedness, prescribed burning and wildfire suppression are greatly enhanced by the ability to predict fire behaviour. The new spinifex fire behaviour model presented here was developed and validated from 186 experimental fires across a wide range of fuel and weather conditions. Because spinifex fuels are discontinuous, modelling is a two-step process; once ignition is achieved, the first step is to determine the likelihood of fire spread, which is dependent on conditions of wind speed, fuel cover and fuel moisture content. If spread thresholds are met, the second step is to predict rate of spread and flame height using the same three independent variables. Thirty-six of the 186 experimental fires not used in modelling were used to validate the model, which proved to be reasonably accurate and an improvement on the previous model.

Short-term effect of fuel treatments on fire behaviour in a mixed heathland: a comparative assessment in an outdoor wind tunnel

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Marino ◽  
Carmen Hernando ◽  
Javier Madrigal ◽  
Mercedes Guijarro
Keyword(s):  
Wind Tunnel ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fuel Management ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fuel Treatments ◽  
Relevant Effect ◽  
Significant Difference

Fuel management is one of the main challenges for wildfire prevention in the Mediterranean region, where wildfires have important environmental and socioeconomic effects. Different treatments are usually applied in fire-prone shrubland to try to modify its flammability. However, a knowledge gap on the effectiveness of fuel management techniques still exists. We studied the effects of two mechanical treatments (shrub crushing and shrub clearing with removal) and of prescribed burning, on fire behaviour, and compared them with untreated vegetation. Experimental burns in 0.8 × 6 m samples of regenerated shrubs 2 years after treatments were performed in an outdoor wind tunnel. All fuel treatments effectively modified fire behaviour, but no significant difference between treatment types was observed. Shrub fuel structure was the main factor affecting fire behaviour. Reduction of fuel load and height, especially necromass fraction, decreased flame height and fire intensity but did not affect fire rate of spread. Moisture contents of live and dead fuel fractions were not significant as independent parameters, but the average moisture level of the shrub fuel complex showed a relevant effect in determining fire behaviour. Temperature regime within and above the shrubs was also related to shrub fuel structure. This study contributes to understanding fuel management in shrubland by providing information about different fuel treatments effects on fire behaviour.

scholarly journals Fire prediction with logistic regression on territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina

2021 ◽  
Vol 1208 (1) ◽  
pp. 012033
Author(s):  
Mursel Musabašić ◽  
Denis Mušić ◽  
Elmir Babović
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Index System ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
User Input

Abstract The Canadian Fire Weather Index system [1] has been used worldwide by many countries as classic approach in fire prediction. It represents system that account for the effects of fuel moisture and weather conditions on fire behaviour. It numerical outputs are based on calculation of four meteorological elements: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation in last 24h. In this paper meteorological data in combination with Canadian Fire Weather Index system (CFWI) components is used as input to predict fire occurrence using logistic regression model. As logistic regression is a supervised machine learning method it’s based on user input in the form of dataset. Dataset is collected using NASA GES DISC Giovanni web-based application in the form of daily area-averaged time series in period of 31.7.2010 to 31.7.2020, it’s analysed and pre-processed before it is used as input for logit model. CFWI components values are not imported but calculated in run-time based on pre-processed meteorological data. As a result of this research windows application was developed to assist fire managers and all those involved in studying the fire behaviour.

scholarly journals Prescribed burning in a mediterranean-climate region mitigates the disturbance by bushfire to a critical food resource for an endangered bird, the Carnaby’s cockatoo

Fire Ecology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerie S. Densmore ◽  
Emma S. Clingan
Keyword(s):  
Seed Production ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Food Resource ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Low Intensity ◽  
Percentage Survival

Abstract Background Prescribed burning is used to reduce fire hazard in highly flammable vegetation types, including Banksia L.f. woodland that occurs on the Swan Coastal Plain (SCP), Western Australia, Australia. The 2016 census recorded well over 1.9 million people living on the SCP, which also encompasses Perth, the fourth largest city in Australia. Banksia woodland is prone to frequent ignitions that can cause extensive bushfires that consume canopy-stored banksia seeds, a critical food resource for an endangered bird, the Carnaby’s cockatoo (Calyptorynchus latirostris, Carnaby 1948). The time needed for banksias to reach maturity and maximum seed production is several years longer than the typical interval between prescribed burns. We compared prescribed burns to bushfires and unburned sites at three locations in banksia woodland to determine whether low-intensity prescribed burns affect the number of adult banksias and their seed production. Study sites were matched to the same vegetation complex, fire regime, and time-since-fire to isolate fire intensity as a variable. Results Headfire rates of spread and differenced normalized burn ratios indicated that prescribed burning was generally of a much lower intensity than bushfire. The percentage survival of adult banksias and their production of cones and follicles (seeds) did not decrease during the first three years following a prescribed burn. However, survival and seed production were significantly diminished followed high-intensity bushfire. Thus, carrying capacity for Carnaby’s cockatoo was unchanged by prescribed burning but decreased markedly following bushfire in banksia woodland. Conclusions These results suggest that prescribed burning is markedly different from bushfire when considering appropriate fire intervals to conserve canopy habitats in fire-resilient vegetation communities. Therefore, low-intensity prescribed burning represents a viable management tool to reduce the frequency and extent of bushfire impacts on banksia woodland and Carnaby’s cockatoo.

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