The role of weather, past fire and topography in crown fire occurrence in eastern Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Storey ◽  
Owen Price ◽  
Elizabeth Tasker
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Fuel Accumulation ◽  
Behaviour Models

We analysed the influence of weather, time since fire (TSF) and topography on the occurrence of crown fire, as mapped from satellite imagery, in 23 of the largest wildfires in dry sclerophyll forests in eastern Australia from 2002 to 2013. Fires were analysed both individually and as groups. Fire weather was the most important predictor of crown consumption. TSF (a surrogate for fuel accumulation) had complex nonlinear effects that varied among fires. Crown fire likelihood was low up to 4 years post-fire, peaked at ~10 years post-fire and then declined. There was no clear indication that recent burning became more or less effective as fire weather became more severe. Steeper slope reduced crown fire likelihood, contrary to the assumptions of common fire behaviour equations. More exposed areas (ridges and plains) had higher crown fire likelihood. Our results suggest prescribed burning to maintain an average of 10 years’ TSF may actually increase crown fire likelihood, but burning much more frequently can be effective for risk reduction. Our results also suggest the effects of weather, TSF and slope are not adequately represented in the underlying equations of most fire behaviour models, potentially leading to poor prediction of fire spread and risk.

Modelling the rate of fire spread and uncertainty associated with the onset and propagation of crown fires in conifer forest stands

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G. Cruz ◽  
Martin E. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Conifer Forest ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Crown Fires ◽  
Deterministic Modelling ◽  
Eastern Australia

Crown fires are complex, unstable phenomena dependent on feedback mechanisms between the combustion products of distinct fuel layers. We describe non-linear fire behaviour associated with crowning and the uncertainty they cause in fire behaviour predictions by running a semiphysical modelling system within a simple Monte Carlo simulation framework. The method was able to capture the dynamics of passive and active crown fire spread regimes, providing estimates of average rate of spread and the extent of crown fire activity. System outputs were evaluated against data collected from a wildfire that occurred in a radiata pine plantation in south-eastern Australia. The Monte Carlo method reduced prediction errors relative to the more commonly used deterministic modelling approach, and allowed a more complete description of the level of crown fire behaviour to expect. The method also provides uncertainty measures and probabilistic outputs, extending the range of questions that can be answered by fire behaviour models.

scholarly journals Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. e02S ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Rodríguez y Silva ◽  
Mercedes Guijarro ◽  
Javier Madrigal ◽  
Enrique Jiménez ◽  
Juan R. Molina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Bench Scale ◽  
Fire Experiment ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
Scale Experiment

Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation.Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain.Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model.Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena.Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

Sensitivity of a surface fire spread model and associated fire behaviour fuel models to changes in live fuel moisture

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 503 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Matt Jolly
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Surface Fire ◽  
Fuel Model ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Fuel Models ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture ◽  
Behaviour Models ◽  
Fire Spread Model

Fire behaviour models are used to assess the potential characteristics of wildland fires such as rates of spread, fireline intensity and flame length. These calculations help support fire management strategies while keeping fireline personnel safe. Live fuel moisture is an important component of fire behaviour models but the sensitivity of existing models to live fuel moisture has not been thoroughly evaluated. The Rothermel surface fire spread model was used to estimate key surface fire behaviour values over a range of live fuel moistures for all 53 standard fuel models. Fire behaviour characteristics are shown to be highly sensitive to live fuel moisture but the response is fuel model dependent. In many cases, small changes in live fuel moisture elicit drastic changes in predicted fire behaviour. These large changes are a result of a combination of the model-calculated live fuel moisture of extinction, the effective wind speed limit and the dynamic load transfer function of some of the fuel models tested. Surface fire spread model sensitivity to live fuel moisture changes is discussed in the context of predicted fire fighter safety zone area because the area of a predicted safety zone may increase by an order of magnitude for a 10% decrease in live fuel moisture depending on the fuel model chosen.

Simulating the effectiveness of prescribed burning at altering wildfire behaviour in Tasmania, Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
James M. Furlaud ◽  
Grant J. Williamson ◽  
David M. J. S. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Treatment Scenario ◽  
Wildfire Hazard

Prescribed burning is a widely accepted wildfire hazard reduction technique; however, knowledge of its effectiveness remains limited. To address this, we employ simulations of a widely used fire behaviour model across the ecologically diverse Australian island state of Tasmania. We simulate three broad scenarios: (1) no fuel treatment, (2) a maximal treatment, with the most possible prescribed burning within ecological constraints, and (3) 12 hypothetically more implementable state-wide prescribed-burning plans. In all simulations, we standardised fire-weather inputs to represent regionally typical dangerous fire-weather conditions. Statistical modelling showed that an unrealistically large maximal treatment scenario could reduce fire intensity in three flammable vegetation types, and reduce fire probability in almost every vegetation type. However, leverage analysis of the 12 more-realistic implementable plans indicated that such prescribed burning would have only a minimal effect, if any, on fire extent and that none of these prescribed-burning plans substantially reduced fire intensity. The study highlights that prescribed burning can theoretically mitigate wildfire, but that an unrealistically large area would need to be treated to affect fire behaviour across the island. Rather, optimisation of prescribed burning requires careful landscape design at the local scale. Such designs should be based on improved fire behaviour modelling, empirical measurement of fuels and analysis of actual wildfires.

Got to burn to learn: the effect of fuel load on grassland fire behaviour and its management implications

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (11) ◽  
pp. 727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G. Cruz ◽  
Andrew L. Sullivan ◽  
James S. Gould ◽  
Richard J. Hurley ◽  
Matt P. Plucinski
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Limiting Factor ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Load Effect ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Modelling Assumptions

The effect of grass fuel load on fire behaviour and fire danger has been a contentious issue for some time in Australia. Existing operational models have placed different emphases on the effect of fuel load on model outputs, which has created uncertainty in the operational assessment of fire potential and has led to end-user and public distrust of model outcomes. A field-based experimental burning program was conducted to quantify the effect of fuel load on headfire rate of spread and other fire behaviour characteristics in grasslands. A total of 58 experimental fires conducted at six sites across eastern Australia were analysed. We found an inverse relationship between fuel load and the rate of spread in grasslands, which is contrary to current, untested, modelling assumptions. This result is valid for grasslands where fuel load is not a limiting factor for fire propagation. We discuss the reasons for this effect and model it to produce a fuel load effect function that can be applied to operational grassfire spread models used in Australia. We also analyse the effect of fuel load on flame characteristics and develop a model for flame height as a function of rate of fire spread and fuel load.

Variation in wind and crown fire behaviour in a northern jack pine – black spruce forest

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 1561-1576 ◽  
Author(s):  
S W Taylor ◽  
B M Wotton ◽  
M E Alexander ◽  
G N Dalrymple
Keyword(s):  
Black Spruce ◽  
Flame Temperature ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Canopy Layer ◽  
Crown Fires ◽  
Video Observations ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Fire Front

Fire spread and flame temperature were examined in a series of nine experimental crown fires conducted in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Average rates of spread were 17.8–66.8 m·min–1 (0.3–1.1 m·s–1) over burning periods from about 1.5–10 min across 75 m × 75 m to 150 m × 150 m plots. Detailed maps of fire front progression revealed areas with higher rates of spread in the order of tens of metres in horizontal dimension and tens of seconds in duration in several of the fires, which is consistent with the influence of coherent wind gusts. Comparison of open and in-stand wind speed before and after burning suggests that defoliation in the canopy layer during burning would result in the flaming zone having greater exposure to the ambient wind. Estimates of flame front residence from video observations at the surface averaged 34 s; estimates from temperature measurements decreased significantly with height from 74 s at the surface to 31 s below the canopy.

scholarly journals Can precipitation influence landscape controls on wildfire severity? A case study within temperate eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Collins ◽  
R. A. Bradstock ◽  
T. D. Penman
Keyword(s):  
Fire Severity ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Crown Fires ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Fuel Accumulation ◽  
Eucalypt Forests ◽  
Steep Slopes

The environmental, economic and social impacts of wildfires depend on spatial patterns of fire severity. An understanding as to how drivers of fire severity vary across broad vegetation communities exists. However, examination of variation within communities in response to gradients of moisture has received little attention so far. This study examined whether relationships between environmental variables (i.e. fire weather, topography and fuel age) and fire severity were modified by increasing mean annual precipitation. Understorey fires were more likely to occur in young fuels (i.e. <5 years since fire) in drier sites, although this effect diminished as precipitation increased. The probability of occurrence of understorey fires under non-extreme weather and on steep slopes was reduced in wetter areas. Relationships between crown fire and weather, topography and fuel age were largely unaltered by the precipitation gradient, with only a marginally significant interaction occurring between weather and mean annual precipitation. Greater fine fuel accumulation associated with increased precipitation presumably reduced fuel limitations imposed by environmental factors (i.e. fire weather, slope, fuel age), altering their relative control on the probability of understorey fire. The probability of crown fires is predominantly driven by fire weather and is consequently less sensitive to precipitation gradients. Consideration of precipitation gradients will be necessary when identifying controls of fire severity and devising effective fire management strategies.

Development and validation of a model for predicting fire behaviour in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Burrows ◽  
Malcolm Gill ◽  
Jason Sharples
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Wildfire Suppression ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Large wildfires are common in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia. Threat mitigation measures including fire preparedness, prescribed burning and wildfire suppression are greatly enhanced by the ability to predict fire behaviour. The new spinifex fire behaviour model presented here was developed and validated from 186 experimental fires across a wide range of fuel and weather conditions. Because spinifex fuels are discontinuous, modelling is a two-step process; once ignition is achieved, the first step is to determine the likelihood of fire spread, which is dependent on conditions of wind speed, fuel cover and fuel moisture content. If spread thresholds are met, the second step is to predict rate of spread and flame height using the same three independent variables. Thirty-six of the 186 experimental fires not used in modelling were used to validate the model, which proved to be reasonably accurate and an improvement on the previous model.

Experimental fire behaviour in managed Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies stands of Finland

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Tanskanen ◽  
Anders Granström ◽  
Markku Larjavaara ◽  
Pasi Puttonen
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Picea Abies ◽  
Pinus Sylvestris ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Fire behaviour characteristics were studied in managed Pinus sylvestris L. and Picea abies L. Karst stands in a series of field burning experiments. Stand characteristics, surface fuel moisture content, mid-flame wind speed, rates of spread, flame heights, and torching were recorded. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (FWI System) and Finnish Fire Risk Index (FFI) were used to evaluate burning conditions and analyse the observed fire behaviour. Mid-flame wind speed was a good predictor (R2 = 0.96 for exponential curve) of the fire spread rates. Torching formed the strongest correlation with the height of the dead branch limit. An increase in predicted fire weather hazard from FWI 4 to FWI 20 (FWI = the FWI code of the FWI System) increased burn coverage remarkably in 15–45-year-old Pinus stands and to a lesser extent in Pinus and Picea clear-cuts, but did not affect 40–60-year-old Picea stands. The FFI was unable to predict burn coverage or any other fire behaviour characteristics.

scholarly journals Shrubland fire behaviour modelling with microplot data

2000 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 889-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo M Fernandes ◽  
Wendy R Catchpole ◽  
Francisco C Rego
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Flame Length ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Behaviour Modelling ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Behaviour Models

Fire behaviour modelling has been based primarily on experiments involving the measurement of a certain number of fires, where each variable is represented by an average value per fire. The main objective of this study was to examine if data collected from a microplot sampling design could be used to derive meaningful fire behaviour models. Three burns were conducted in low shrubland of Erica umbellata Loefl., and Chamaespartium tridentatum (L.) P. Gibbs in northeastern Portugal. Wind speed and aerial dead fuel moisture content varied from 5 to 27 km/h and from 14 to 21%, respectively. Rate of spread and flame length ranged from 0.3 to 14.1 m/min and from 0.2 to 3.1 m, respectively. Rate of fire spread could be described effectively in terms of an empirical model with wind speed and fuel height as independent variables. The coefficients that describe the effects of wind speed and fuel height on fire propagation were consistent with published values for similar fuel types. Flame length was strongly related to Byram's fireline intensity. Microplot sampling is not free from methodological problems, which are discussed, but can be effectively used in field studies of fire behaviour.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document