Fire Regime and the Abundance of Red Pine

1993 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 241 ◽  
Author(s):  
MD Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Red Pine ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Forward Stepwise

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) is a fire-dependent species. This study examines the relationship between the fire regime and the abundance of red pine. The fire regime is represented by components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System and outputs from the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction System as well as the average area burned and the percentage of conifers of each forest section. Extreme as well as averages values were used in this analysis as a large forest fire is a rare event that can occur on only a few days of the year under extreme fire weather conditions. Results from a forward-stepwise regression explained about 70% of die variance in red pine volume (abundance) data. Variables selected in the regression analysis included extreme headfire intensity, area burned and average drought code. These results suggest that abundance of red pine and other fire affected tree species is directly related to the aspects of the fire regime such as fire intensity.

Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Carvalho ◽  
M. D. Flannigan ◽  
K. Logan ◽  
A. I. Miranda ◽  
C. Borrego
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
System Components ◽  
Baseline Information ◽  
Forward Stepwise ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

The relationships among the weather, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components, the monthly area burned, and the number of fire occurrences from 1980 to 2004 were investigated in 11 Portuguese districts that represent respectively 66% and 61% of the total area burned and number of fires in Portugal. A statistical approach was used to estimate the monthly area burned and the monthly number of fires per district, using meteorological variables and FWI System components as predictors. The approach succeeded in explaining from 60.9 to 80.4% of the variance for area burned and between 47.9 and 77.0% of the variance for the number of fires; all regressions were highly significant (P < 0.0001). The monthly mean and the monthly maximum of daily maximum temperatures and the monthly mean and extremes (maximum and 90th percentile) of the daily FWI were selected for all districts, except for Bragança and Porto, in the forward stepwise regression for area burned. For all districts combined, the variance explained was 80.9 and 63.0% for area burned and number of fires, respectively. Our results point to highly significant relationships among forest fires in Portugal and the weather and the Canadian FWI System. The present analysis provides baseline information for predicting the area burned and number of fires under future climate scenarios and the subsequent impacts on air quality.

Fire behavior in immature jack pine

1987 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.J. Stocks
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Jack Pine ◽  
Quantitative Prediction ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Forest Fire Management

A series of experimental fires, each 0.4 ha in size, was conducted between 1975 and 1981 in an unthinned stand of immature jack pine (1948 origin) in central Ontario to gather quantitative fire behavior data for forest fire management purposes. Twelve fires were conducted over a broad range of burning conditions. Fire behavior and impact characteristics (i.e., rate of spread, fuel consumption, and frontal fire intensity) were found to be strongly correlated with fire weather severity as expressed through various component codes and indices of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. This type of experimental fire information, along with wildfire data, is being used in the development of guidelines for quantitative prediction of fire behavior in major Canadian forest fuel types.

scholarly journals The Hot-Dry-Windy Index: A New Fire Weather Index

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Srock ◽  
Joseph Charney ◽  
Brian Potter ◽  
Scott Goodrick
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Complex Interactions

Fire weather indices are commonly used by fire weather forecasters to predict when weather conditions will make a wildland fire difficult to manage. Complex interactions at multiple scales between fire, fuels, topography, and weather make these predictions extremely difficult. We define a new fire weather index called the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDW). HDW uses the basic science of how the atmosphere can affect a fire to define the meteorological variables that can be predicted at synoptic-and meso-alpha-scales that govern the potential for the atmosphere to affect a fire. The new index is formulated to account for meteorological conditions both at the Earth’s surface and in a 500-m layer just above the surface. HDW is defined and then compared with the Haines Index (HI) for four historical fires. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to provide the meteorological data for calculating the indices. Our results indicate that HDW can identify days on which synoptic-and meso-alpha-scale weather processes can contribute to especially dangerous fire behavior. HDW is shown to perform better than the HI for each of the four historical fires. Additionally, since HDW is based on the meteorological variables that govern the potential for the atmosphere to affect a fire, it is possible to speculate on why HDW would be more or less effective based on the conditions that prevail in a given fire case. The HI, in contrast, does not have a physical basis, which makes speculation on why it works or does not work difficult because the mechanisms are not clear.

Fire behavior in mature jack pine

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 783-790 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Stocks
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Jack Pine ◽  
Quantitative Prediction ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Forest Fire Management

Between 1973 and 1983 a series of 12 experimental fires, each 0.4 ha in size, was conducted in a mature jack pine (Pinusbanksiana Lamb.) stand (1899 origin) in north central Ontario. The fires were carried out under a broad range of burning conditions to gather quantitative fire behavior data for forest fire management purposes. Fire weather severity, as expressed through the component codes and indices of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, was strongly correlated with fire behavior and impact characteristics (i.e., rate of spread, depth of burn, fuel consumption, and frontal fire intensity). Guidelines for the quantitative prediction of the fire behavior in major Canadian forest fuel types are currently being developed, primarily on the basis of this type of experimental fire data combined with information gathered on selected wildfires.

scholarly journals Verification of WRF modelled fire weather in the 2009–10 New Zealand fire season

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. C. Simpson ◽  
H. G. Pearce ◽  
A. P. Sturman ◽  
P. Zawar-Reza
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Weather Stations

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model was used to simulate the fire weather conditions for the 2009–10 wildland fire season in New Zealand. The suitability of WRF to simulate the high-end fire weather conditions for this period was assessed through direct comparison with observational data taken from 23 surface and two upper-air stations located across New Zealand. The weather variables and fire weather indices considered in the verification were the 1200 hours NZST air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, 24-h rainfall, New Zealand Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Continuous Haines Index (CHI). On observed high-end fire weather days, the model under-predicted the air temperatures and relative humidities, and over-predicted the wind speeds and 24-h rainfall at most weather stations. The results demonstrated that although WRF is suitable for modelling the air temperatures, there are issues with modelling the wind speeds and rainfall quantities. The model error in the wind speeds and 24-h rainfall contributed significantly towards the model under-prediction of the FWI on observed high-end fire weather days. In addition, the model was not suitable for predicting the number of high-end fire weather days at most weather stations, which represents a serious operational limitation of the WRF model for fire management applications. Finally, the modelled CHI values were only in moderate agreement with the observed values, principally due to the model error in the dew point depression at 850hPa.

Simulating landscape-scale effects of fuels treatments in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra D. Syphard ◽  
Robert M. Scheller ◽  
Brendan C. Ward ◽  
Wayne D. Spencer ◽  
James R. Strittholt
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Prescribed Fire ◽  
Plant Biomass ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Landscape Scale ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fuels Management ◽  
Fuels Treatments

In many coniferous forests of the western United States, wildland fuel accumulation and projected climate conditions increase the likelihood that fires will become larger and more intense. Fuels treatments and prescribed fire are widely recommended, but there is uncertainty regarding their ability to reduce the severity of subsequent fires at a landscape scale. Our objective was to investigate the interactions among landscape-scale fire regimes, fuels treatments and fire weather in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. We used a spatially dynamic model of wildfire, succession and fuels management to simulate long-term (50 years), broad-scale (across 2.2 × 106 ha) effects of fuels treatments. We simulated thin-from-below treatments followed by prescribed fire under current weather conditions and under more severe weather. Simulated fuels management minimised the mortality of large, old trees, maintained total landscape plant biomass and extended fire rotation, but effects varied based on elevation, type of treatment and fire regime. The simulated area treated had a greater effect than treatment intensity, and effects were strongest where more fires intersected treatments and when simulated weather conditions were more severe. In conclusion, fuels treatments in conifer forests potentially minimise the ecological effects of high-severity fire at a landscape scale provided that 8% of the landscape is treated every 5 years, especially if future fire weather conditions are more severe than those in recent years.

Fire weather index system components for large fires in the Canadian boreal forest

2004 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 391 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. D. Amiro ◽  
K. A. Logan ◽  
B. M. Wotton ◽  
M. D. Flannigan ◽  
J. B. Todd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
System Parameters ◽  
System Components ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Canadian Boreal Forest

Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components and head fire intensities were calculated for fires greater than 2 km2 in size for the boreal and taiga ecozones of Canada from 1959 to 1999. The highest noon-hour values were analysed that occurred during the first 21 days of each of 9333 fires. Depending on ecozone, the means of the FWI System parameters ranged from: fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), 90 to 92 (82 to 96 for individual fires); duff moisture code (DMC), 38 to 78 (10 to 140 for individual fires); drought code (DC), 210 to 372 (50 to 600 for individual fires); and fire weather index, 20 to 33 (5 to 60 for individual fires). Fine fuel moisture code decreased, DMC had a mid-season peak, and DC increased through the fire season. Mean head fire intensities ranged from 10 to 28 MW m−1 in the boreal spruce fuel type, showing that most large fires exhibit crown fire behaviour. Intensities of individual fires can exceed 60 MW m−1. Most FWI System parameters did not show trends over the 41-year period because of large inter-annual variability. A changing climate is expected to create future weather conditions more conducive to fire throughout much of Canada but clear changes have not yet occurred.

Relations between tree-ring widths, climate, and annual area burned in the boreal forest of Alberta

1995 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1746-1755 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.P.S. Larsen ◽  
G.M. MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
National Park ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Severity Rating ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
Wood Buffalo National Park

Ring-width chronologies from three white spruce (Piceaglauca (Moench) Voss) and two jack pine (Pinusbanksiana Lamb.) sites in the boreal forest of northern Alberta were constructed to determine whether they could provide proxy records of monthly weather, summer fire weather, and the annual area burned by wildfires in Wood Buffalo National Park. All but one of the standard and residual chronologies exhibited significant positive correlations with June precipitation in the growth year, and all but three of the chronologies exhibited positive correlations with precipitation in June, July, or August of the previous year. Three of the residual chronologies also exhibited negative correlations with June temperature in the growth year. Four of the standard and residual chronologies exhibited significant correlations with the Seasonal Severity Rating fire weather variable from Fort Smith, N.W.T. Four of the standard chronologies and three of the residual chronologies exhibited significant correlations with the annual area burned in Wood Buffalo National Park. Significant correlations were also found for some of the standard and residual chronologies with fire weather and annual area burned in the previous year. These results suggest that ring widths and annual area burned in this portion of the boreal forest are sensitive to similar weather conditions. Tree-ring records may therefore provide a useful means of examining decadal to centennial length relations between climate and annual area burned in the boreal forest.

Simulating the effectiveness of prescribed burning at altering wildfire behaviour in Tasmania, Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
James M. Furlaud ◽  
Grant J. Williamson ◽  
David M. J. S. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Treatment Scenario ◽  
Wildfire Hazard

Prescribed burning is a widely accepted wildfire hazard reduction technique; however, knowledge of its effectiveness remains limited. To address this, we employ simulations of a widely used fire behaviour model across the ecologically diverse Australian island state of Tasmania. We simulate three broad scenarios: (1) no fuel treatment, (2) a maximal treatment, with the most possible prescribed burning within ecological constraints, and (3) 12 hypothetically more implementable state-wide prescribed-burning plans. In all simulations, we standardised fire-weather inputs to represent regionally typical dangerous fire-weather conditions. Statistical modelling showed that an unrealistically large maximal treatment scenario could reduce fire intensity in three flammable vegetation types, and reduce fire probability in almost every vegetation type. However, leverage analysis of the 12 more-realistic implementable plans indicated that such prescribed burning would have only a minimal effect, if any, on fire extent and that none of these prescribed-burning plans substantially reduced fire intensity. The study highlights that prescribed burning can theoretically mitigate wildfire, but that an unrealistically large area would need to be treated to affect fire behaviour across the island. Rather, optimisation of prescribed burning requires careful landscape design at the local scale. Such designs should be based on improved fire behaviour modelling, empirical measurement of fuels and analysis of actual wildfires.

scholarly journals A high-resolution reanalysis of global fire weather from 1979 to 2018 – Overwintering the Drought Code

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan McElhinny ◽  
Justin F. Beckers ◽  
Chelene Hanes ◽  
Mike Flannigan ◽  
Piyush Jain
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Start Up ◽  
System Calculation ◽  
Second Procedure ◽  
Temporal Coverage

Abstract. We present a global high-resolution calculation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System Indices using surface meteorology from the ERA5-HRS reanalysis for 1979–2018. ERA5-HRS represents an improved dataset compared to several other reanalyses in terms of accuracy, as well as spatial and temporal coverage. The FWI calculation is performed using two different procedures for setting the start-up value of the Drought Code (DC) at the beginning of the fire season. The first procedure, which accounts for the effects of inter-seasonal drought, overwinters the DC by adjusting the fall DC value with a fraction of accumulated overwinter precipitation. The second procedure sets the DC to its default start-up value (i.e. 15) at the start of each fire season. We validate the FWI values over Canada using station observations from Environment and Climate Change Canada and find generally good agreement (mean Spearman correlation of 0.77). We also show that significant differences in early season DC and FWI values can occur when the FWI System calculation is started using the overwintered versus default DC values, as is highlighted by an example from 2016 over North America. The FWI System moisture codes and fire behavior indices are made available for both versions of the calculation at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3626193 (McElhinny et al., 2020), although we recommend using codes and indices calculated with the overwintered DC, unless specific research requirements dictate otherwise.

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