Experimental fire behaviour in managed Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies stands of Finland

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Tanskanen ◽  
Anders Granström ◽  
Markku Larjavaara ◽  
Pasi Puttonen
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Picea Abies ◽  
Pinus Sylvestris ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Fire behaviour characteristics were studied in managed Pinus sylvestris L. and Picea abies L. Karst stands in a series of field burning experiments. Stand characteristics, surface fuel moisture content, mid-flame wind speed, rates of spread, flame heights, and torching were recorded. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (FWI System) and Finnish Fire Risk Index (FFI) were used to evaluate burning conditions and analyse the observed fire behaviour. Mid-flame wind speed was a good predictor (R2 = 0.96 for exponential curve) of the fire spread rates. Torching formed the strongest correlation with the height of the dead branch limit. An increase in predicted fire weather hazard from FWI 4 to FWI 20 (FWI = the FWI code of the FWI System) increased burn coverage remarkably in 15–45-year-old Pinus stands and to a lesser extent in Pinus and Picea clear-cuts, but did not affect 40–60-year-old Picea stands. The FFI was unable to predict burn coverage or any other fire behaviour characteristics.

Assessing the probability of sustained flaming in masticated fuel beds

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.J. Schiks ◽  
B.M. Wotton
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Field Testing ◽  
Behavior Modeling ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Mechanical mastication is increasingly used as a fuel management treatment to reduce fire risk at the wildland–urban interface, although ignition and fire behaviour in these novel fuel beds are poorly understood. We investigated the influence of observed fuel moisture content, wind speed, and firebrand size on the probability of sustained flaming of masticated fuel beds under both laboratory and field settings. Logistic regression techniques were applied to assess the probability of sustained flaming in both datasets. Models for the field were also developed using estimated moisture from three sets of weather-based models: (i) the hourly Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, (ii) the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) moisture estimates for 1 h and 10 h fuels, and (iii) a masticated surface fuel moisture model (MAST). In both laboratory and field testing, the likelihood of a successful ignition increased with decreasing moisture content and increasing wind speed; the effect of firebrand size was only apparent in laboratory testing. The FFMC, NFDRS, and MAST predictions had somewhat reduced discriminative power relative to direct moisture in predicting the probability of sustained flaming based on our field observations. Our results speak to the disparity between the fire behaviour modeling that occurs in the laboratory and the fire behavior modeling that occurs in the field, as the methodology permitted comparison of predictions from sustained flaming models that were developed for one experimental setting and applied to the other.

Empirical modelling of surface fire behaviour in maritime pine stands

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Hermínio S. Botelho ◽  
Francisco C. Rego ◽  
Carlos Loureiro
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Surface Fire ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

An experimental burning program took place in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in Portugal to increase the understanding of surface fire behaviour under mild weather. The spread rate and flame geometry of the forward and backward sections of a line-ignited fire front were measured in 94 plots 10–15 m wide. Measured head fire rate of spread, flame length and Byram’s fire intensity varied respectively in the intervals of 0.3–13.9 m min–1, 0.1–4.2 m and 30–3527 kW m–1. Fire behaviour was modelled through an empirical approach. Rate of forward fire spread was described as a function of surface wind speed, terrain slope, moisture content of fine dead surface fuel, and fuel height, while back fire spread rate was correlated with fuel moisture content and cover of understorey vegetation. Flame dimensions were related to Byram’s fire intensity but relationships with rate of spread and fine dead surface fuel load and moisture are preferred, particularly for the head fire. The equations are expected to be more reliable when wind speed and slope are less than 8 km h–1 and 15°, and when fuel moisture content is higher than 12%. The results offer a quantitative basis for prescribed fire management.

scholarly journals Fire risk in Austrian pine (Pinus nigra) plantations under various temperature and wind conditions

2011 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imre Cseresnyés ◽  
Orsolya Szécsy ◽  
Péter Csontos
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Pinus Nigra ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Fire risk in Austrian pine (Pinus nigra) plantations under various temperature and wind conditions The Austrian pine (Pinus nigra), an introduced conifer in Hungary, forms a highly flammable vegetation type. The fire risk of such stands was examined using McArthur's empirical forest fire danger model. Our study focused on the effects of temperature and wind speed on fire behaviour. By keeping the input parameters of the model constant while changing temperature andwind speed within a specified interval the resulting fire danger index (FDI) and fire behaviour were examined. The applied fixed parameters were: 30 °C temperature, 30% relative humidity, 30 km h-1 wind speed, 30 degree of slope and drought factor value 10. The annual trends of the Byram-Keetch drought index (BKDI) and the drought factor were also calculated. Our results show that increasing temperature and wind speed raises the FDI, flame height, rate of fire spread (ROS) and spotting distance. The amount of fuel does not influence the FDI, but increasing the amount promotes the ROS and raises the flame height. Wind speed was the most important factor in the ROS. A serious fire risk of these plantations was determined. The reliability of McArthur's model was proved by comparison of our results with experimental laboratory data based on literature.

scholarly journals Proposal of an Iot Solution to Fire Risk Assessment Problem

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bernardo ◽  
Pedro Silva ◽  
Paulo Fazendeiro
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Keywords Internet ◽  
The Common ◽  
Civic Awareness ◽  
Municipal Level

Several of the fighting weaknesses evidenced by the forest fires tragedies of the last years are rooted in the disconnection between the current technical/scientific resources and the availability of the resulting information to operational agents on the ground. In order to be effective, a pre-emptive response to similar disasters must include the articulation between local authorities at municipal level - in prevention, preparedness and initial response - and the common citizen who is on the field, resides there, and has a deeper knowledge about the field of operation. This work intends to take a first step in the development of a tool that can serve to improve the civic awareness of all and to support the decision-making of the competent authorities. Keywords: Internet of things, Citizen science, Fire weather index

scholarly journals Increased trends in global extreme fire weather driven predominantly by atmospheric humidity and temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Dante Castellanos-Acuna ◽  
Sean Coogan ◽  
John Abatzoglou ◽  
Mike Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Global Analysis ◽  
Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Humidity ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract Climate and weather greatly influence wildfire, and recent increases in wildfire activity have been linked to climate change. However, the atmospheric drivers of observed changes have not been articulated globally. We present a global analysis of trends in extreme fire weather from 1979–2020. Significant increases in extreme (95th percentile) annual values of the Fire Weather Index (FWI95), Initial Spread Index (ISI95), and Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD95) occurred over 26.0%, 26.1%, and 46.1% of the global burnable landmass, respectively. Significant trends corresponded to a 35.8%, 36.0%, and 21.4% increase in mean global FWI95, ISI95, and VPD95, respectively. Relative humidity and temperature were identified as the drivers of significant trends in FWI95 and ISI95 in most regions, largely where temperature trends outpaced dew point trends. We identified relatively few regions in which wind speed or precipitation were drivers. These findings have wide-ranging implications for understanding fire risk in a changing climate.

Project Vesta: Fire in Dry Eucalypt Forest

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
JS Gould ◽  
WL McCaw ◽  
NP Cheney ◽  
PF Ellis ◽  
IK Knight ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Understorey Vegetation ◽  
Eucalypt Forest ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Vegetation Structures ◽  
Eucalypt Forests ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
New Algorithms

Project Vesta was a comprehensive research project to investigate the behaviour and spread of high-intensity bushfires in dry eucalypt forests with different fuel ages and understorey vegetation structures. The project was designed to quantify age-related changes in fuel attributes and fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forests typical of southern Australia. The four main scientific aims of Project Vesta were: To quantify the changes in the behaviour of fire in dry eucalypt forest as fuel develops with age (i.e. time since fire); To characterise wind speed profiles in forest with different overstorey and understorey vegetation structure in relation to fire behaviour; To develop new algorithms describing the relationship between fire spread and wind speed, and fire spread and fuel characteristics including load, structure and height; and to develop a National Fire Behaviour Prediction System for dry eucalypt forests. These aims have been addressed through a program of experimental burning and associated studies at two sites in the south-west of Western Australia.

A cellular automata model to link surface fires to firebrand lift-off and dispersal

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly A. Perryman ◽  
Christopher J. Dugaw ◽  
J. Morgan Varner ◽  
Diane L. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Loading ◽  
Cellular Automata Model ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
Spot Fires

In spite of considerable effort to predict wildland fire behaviour, the effects of firebrand lift-off, the ignition of resulting spot fires and their effects on fire spread, remain poorly understood. We developed a cellular automata model integrating key mathematical models governing current fire spread models with a recently developed model that estimates firebrand landing patterns. Using our model we simulated a wildfire in an idealised Pinus ponderosa ecosystem. Varying values of wind speed, surface fuel loading, surface fuel moisture content and canopy base height, we investigated two scenarios: (i) the probability of a spot fire igniting beyond fuelbreaks of various widths and (ii) how spot fires directly affect the overall surface fire’s rate of spread. Results were averages across 2500 stochastic simulations. In both scenarios, canopy base height and surface fuel loading had a greater influence than wind speed and surface fuel moisture content. The expected rate of spread with spot fires occurring approached a constant value over time, which ranged between 6 and 931% higher than the predicted surface fire rate of spread. Incorporation of the role of spot fires in wildland fire spread should be an important thrust of future decision-support technologies.

scholarly journals Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2649 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Matt Davies ◽  
Colin J. Legg
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Management ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mahalanobis Distances ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

An evaluation of fire danger and behaviour indices in the Great Lakes Region calculated from station and gridded weather information

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 202 ◽  
Author(s):  
John D. Horel ◽  
Robert Ziel ◽  
Chris Galli ◽  
Judith Pechmann ◽  
Xia Dong
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Great Lakes Region ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Weather Parameters

A web-based set of tools has been developed to integrate weather, fire danger and fire behaviour information for the Great Lakes region of the United States. Weather parameters obtained from selected observational networks are combined with operational high-resolution gridded analyses and forecast products from the United States National Weather Service. Fuel moisture codes and fire behaviour indices in the Fire Weather Index subsystem of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are computed from these sources for current and forecast conditions. Applications of this Great Lakes Fire and Fuels System are demonstrated for the 2012 fire season. Fuel moisture codes and fire behaviour indices computed from gridded analyses differ from those derived from observations in a manner similar to the analysis errors typical for the underlying weather parameters. Indices that are particularly sensitive to seasonally accumulating precipitation, such as the Drought Code, exhibit the largest differences. The gridded analyses and forecasts provide considerable additional information for fire weather professionals to evaluate weather and fuel state in the region. The potential utility of these gridded analyses and forecasts throughout the continental United States is highlighted.

scholarly journals Development of a Fire Weather Index Using Meteorological Observations within the Northeast United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 389-402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Erickson ◽  
Joseph J. Charney ◽  
Brian A. Colle
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Binomial Logistic Regression

AbstractA fire weather index (FWI) is developed using wildfire occurrence data and Automated Surface Observing System weather observations within a subregion of the northeastern United States (NEUS) from 1999 to 2008. Average values of several meteorological variables, including near-surface temperature, relative humidity, dewpoint, wind speed, and cumulative daily precipitation, are compared on observed wildfire days with their climatological average (“climatology”) using a bootstrap resampling approach. Average daily minimum relative humidity is significantly lower than climatology on wildfire occurrence days, and average daily maximum temperature and average daily maximum wind speed are slightly higher on wildfire occurrence days. Using the potentially important weather variables (relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed) as inputs, different formulations of a binomial logistic regression model are tested to assess the potential of these atmospheric variables for diagnosing the probability of wildfire occurrence. The FWI is defined using probabilistic output from the preferred binomial logistic regression configuration. Relative humidity and temperature are the only significant predictors in the binomial logistic regression. The binomial logistic regression model is reliable and has more probabilistic skill than climatology using an independent verification dataset. Using the binomial logistic regression output probabilities, an FWI is developed ranging from 0 (minimum potential) to 3 (high potential) and is verified independently for two separate subdomains within the NEUS. The climatology of the FWI reproduces observed fire occurrence probabilities between 1999 and 2008 over a subdomain of the NEUS.

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