Rice price volatility: Sustainable policies in Asia and Europe

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Bruna Zolin ◽  
Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Rice Price

Forecasting Models Based on Data Analytics for Predicting Rice Price Volatility: A Case Study of the Sri Lankan Rice Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (01) ◽  
pp. 1950006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanchala Hathurusingha ◽  
Neda Abdelhamid ◽  
David Airehrour
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Viable Mechanism

Paddy rice is a staple food that is common among the Sri Lankan populace. However, the frequent price variation of rice has negatively impacted the Sri Lankan economy. This is due to the Sri Lankan rice market lacking the mechanisms to evaluate and predict future rice price variations, often leaving domestic traders and consumers affected by sudden price spikes. This study identifies the quantifiable economic factors that affect the sudden rice price variations and presents a viable mechanism for forecasting Domestic Rice Price (DRP). In addition, it establishes three different regression models to emphasise the relationship of DRP in Sri Lanka with three economic factors: International Rice Price (IRP), International Crude Oil Price (ICOP), and USD Exchange Rate. Further, a time series model is formulated to forecast future variations in DRP while advancing factors that have a significant, but negative, correlative impact on the DRP. The results presented in this study show that the models proposed can be used by relevant food authorities to predict sudden hikes and dips in DRP, allowing them to establish a robust price control system.

scholarly journals RICE PRICE VOLATILITY IN EAST JAVA

2017 ◽  
Vol 69 (9) ◽  
pp. 253-261
Author(s):  
R.Y.E. Wati ◽  
R. Anindita ◽  
B. Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Rice Price

scholarly journals Differences in Local Rice Price Volatility, Climate, and Macroeconomic Determinants in the Indonesian Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4465
Author(s):  
Agie Wandala Putra ◽  
Jatna Supriatna ◽  
Raldi Hendro Koestoer ◽  
Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Controllable Factors ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

Rice is a staple food in most Asian countries, and food security is often viewed as having a rice supply to avoid a food crisis. The large number of people who have low incomes means there is a risk of household economic conditions being threatened when food prices are not controlled. We present a different approach by measuring rice price volatility at the local market level with climate and macroeconomic variables. The model succeeds in representing the variables that affect rice prices by an average of 75% nationally. The influence of macroeconomic variables and climate dynamics was found to have a non-uniform pattern from one region to another. The factors that dominate the volatility of rice prices in each province were different. To help address these problems, it is suggested to model and integrate climate data and macroeconomic variables. The output can be used to determine national policies for controllable factors and anticipate climate dynamics to reduce the risk that communities will have difficulty accessing food.

scholarly journals How far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility?

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Sari Busnita, Rina Oktaviani, Tanti Novianti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
The Impact

Food security issue after 2008 global-crisis is something relate with the climate change phenomenon which had worsened on the last few decades. The impact of global climate change can be seen from the fluctuation of main crops production yield in tropical countries. This has affected the food price fluctuations particularly on the grain price, both international and domestic markets. The rice-commodity, known for its thin market characteristics, is now also experiencing the fluctuation of production, its productivity and also the rice price. Considering the importance of rice as the main staple food in Indonesia, the purpose of this research is to identify the Indonesia’s rice price fluctuation (volatility) and to investigate how far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility. By applying monthly time-series data from 2007 to 2014, this research used ARCH-GARCH methods to find out the rice price volatility and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to investigate the impact of climate change phenomenon on the Indonesian paddy production, as well as rice price volatility both in the short-run and long-run. The result is important for the stakeholders and government in preventing the risk and uncertainty condition of paddy production and rice price fluctuation caused by climate change

scholarly journals Price Competitiveness and Supply Response of Rice Producers in Nigeria: Implications for Agricultural Trade

2020 ◽  
pp. 88-101
Author(s):  
E. N. Azifuaku ◽  
C. O. A. Ugwumba ◽  
T. O. Okoli ◽  
Uche Okeke
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Price Competitiveness ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This study examined the price competitiveness and supply response of rice producers in Nigeria and its implication for agricultural trade. Specifically, it examined the trade balance for rice; examined price volatility; estimated supply response coefficients and the determinants of supply response of rice producers in Nigeria. Data were collected from secondary sources and covered the period 1972 to 2017. Data analyses were achieved using descriptive and inferential statistics.  Results indicated a negative trade balance (x = - N20/kg) between imported rice and domestic rice. Price volatility result showed that volatility in agricultural markets was high, with that of imported rice being higher than domestic rice, then maize. Supply response coefficients for rice indicated that production output, price of maize and annual rainfall statistically and significantly influenced supply of rice while domestic price of local rice, price of imported rice and government expenditure on agriculture were not significant. All the series were stationary in the first difference and there was linear combination or long-run equilibrium relationship among the co-integrated variables. There were price adjustments between short-run to long-run equilibrium and the error correction coefficient was -0.209. Further results showed that the price and probably favoured quality of imported rice constrained domestic production and negatively impacted rice exports from Nigeria. This indicates a potentially significant impediment to the expansion of rice production in Nigeria. Government must put in place guaranteed minimum price for rice, and be ready to act as buyer of last resort, as incentives for the farmers, to sustainably increase production and the country to attain self-sufficiency in the short-run. Government and non-governmental institutions should provide improved production inputs and modern processing facilities to enhance the competitiveness of local rice against imported rice, both in terms of quality and price.

Predicting Stock Market Performance

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Thomas Plieger ◽  
Thomas Grünhage ◽  
Éilish Duke ◽  
Martin Reuter
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Life Stress ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Financial Behavior ◽  
Market Simulation ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Risk Taking Behavior

Abstract. Gender and personality traits influence risk proneness in the context of financial decisions. However, most studies on this topic have relied on either self-report data or on artificial measures of financial risk-taking behavior. Our study aimed to identify relevant trading behaviors and personal characteristics related to trading success. N = 108 Caucasians took part in a three-week stock market simulation paradigm, in which they traded shares of eight fictional companies that differed in issue price, volatility, and outcome. Participants also completed questionnaires measuring personality, risk-taking behavior, and life stress. Our model showed that being male and scoring high on self-directedness led to more risky financial behavior, which in turn positively predicted success in the stock market simulation. The total model explained 39% of the variance in trading success, indicating a role for other factors in influencing trading behavior. Future studies should try to enrich our model to get a more accurate impression of the associations between individual characteristics and financially successful behavior in context of stock trading.

Can Bitcoin be the Future of Digital Payments?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 489-500
Author(s):  
Andrea Valente ◽  
◽  
David Atkinson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Innovative Technology ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Digital Payments ◽  
Robust Regulation ◽  
Stakeholder Acceptance

This study aimed to investigate the conditions in which Bitcoin has developed as a leading cryptocurrency and, according to Nakamoto (2008), could become an instrument for everyday payments around the world. In comparison to other digital payment solutions, Bitcoin is based on a peer-to-peer electronic cash system using “the blockchain”. This innovative technology allows for decentralised storage and movement of currency in a fully anonymous way, introducing advantageous methods for encrypted security and faster transactions (Hagiu & Beach, 2014). Scepticism regards Bitcoin’s foundation, energy consumption and price volatility, however, did not take long to arise (Holthaus, 2017). Ten years from its white paper release, Bitcoin is further supported by the same drivers which could sustain its growth as the future of digital payments (Russo, 2018). In order to investigate the key drivers and feasibility of acceptance, a London based survey was used to understand the desirability of Bitcoin as a day-to-day tool for digital payments. Additionally, this research analysed Bitcoin’s stakeholders and forecast drivers of sustainability for its application to become the future of the payment industry. A space which relies on policies that involve multiple layers of society, governments, regulators and tech-firms, all on a global scale. The findings confirmed how the increasing lack of trust of political and financial institutions, coupled with the increasing cases of data-breaches by tech-firms, encouraged over 70% of respondents to consider more decentralised and anonymous methods for their day-to-day actions; like payments. Policy makers need to cope with societies increasingly separating politically but gathering together digitally (LBS, 2017). For Bitcoin to truly establish itself as a global digital payment solution, key stakeholder acceptance must converge alongside the introduction of more robust regulation.

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