Quantified components of the global food system are used to assess long-term global food security under a series of socio-economic, epidemic normalization and climate change scenarios. Here, we evaluate the global food security including the global farming system as well as the global food trade, reserve and loss systems from 1961 to 2019, and analyze their temporal and spatial characteristics by using the global food vulnerability (GFV) model. The spatio–temporal patterns of the vulnerability of the global food system were consistent with the GFSI. As food production and consumption vary greatly in different countries which have continued for a long time, food exports from many developed agricultural countries have compensated for food shortages in most countries (about 120 net grain-importing countries). As a result, many countries have relied heavily on food imports to maintain their domestic food supplies, ultimately causing the global food trade stability to have an increasing impact on the food security of most countries. The impact of global food trade on global food security increased from 9% to 17% during 1961–2019, which has increased the vulnerability of the global food system. The food damage in the United States, Russia, China, and India has varied significantly, and global cereal stocks have fluctuated even more since 2000. From 1961 to 2019, the food system security of some Nordic countries significantly improved, while the food system security of most African countries significantly deteriorated. Most countries with high food insecurity are located in Africa and South Asia. In order to cope with extreme events, these countries need to strengthen and improve their own food production and storage systems, which will help the World Food and Agriculture Organization to formulate relevant food policies and maintain sustainable development.
Overcoming undesirable resilience in the global food system