scholarly journals The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500‐km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Lomas Vega ◽  
Thord Fransson ◽  
Cecilia Kullberg
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5601-5610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sigmond ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd

Abstract Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.


Author(s):  
Pablo A. Oyarzún ◽  
Jorge E. Toro ◽  
José Garcés-Vargas ◽  
Claudia Alvarado ◽  
Ricardo Guiñez ◽  
...  

Reproductive cycles were studied in seven natural populations of the intertidal bivalve Perumytilus purpuratus, distributed in a latitudinal gradient of ~2400 km along the Chilean Pacific coast (20–40°S). The results, both qualitative (gametogenic stages) and quantitative (GSI and GVF), over a period of 24 months, showed that these populations presented asynchrony in the reproductive cycle. Semi-annual cycles in Iquique (20°S), Antofagasta (23°S) and Montemar (32°S), and annual cycles in Caleta Bolfin (23°S), Taltal (25°S), Tumbes (36°S) and Pucatrihue (40°S) (2010–2012) were found. The results indicate that latitude does not have an effect on the development stage, but it does on the spawning date. However, there is a relationship between the reproductive cycles and temperature fluctuations. In addition, there was a significant negative linear correlation between gonadosomatic index and sea surface temperature in the populations studied. The decrease in temperature reduces the rate of development stages and, therefore, increases the reproductive cycles from semi-annual to annual, as evidenced in bivalve samples from Taltal, along a semi-decadal period (2007–2012). From these results, we discuss the likely biological and ecosystem consequences in connection to the effects of climate change in the South Pacific.


Author(s):  
Dmitry Orlov ◽  
Marija Menshakova ◽  
Tomas Thierfelder ◽  
Yulia Zaika ◽  
Sepp Böhme ◽  
...  

Throughout history, humans have experienced epidemics. The balance of living in nature encircled by microorganisms is delicate. More than 70% of today’s emerging infections are zoonotic, i.e., those in which microorganisms transmitted from animals infect humans. Species are on the move at speeds never previously recorded, among ongoing climate change which is especially rapid at high latitudes. This calls for intensified international surveillance of Northern infectious diseases. Russia holds the largest area of thawing permafrost among Northern nations, a process which threatens to rapidly disrupt the balance of nature. In this paper, we provide details regarding Russian health infrastructure in order to take the first steps toward a collaborative international survey of Northern infections and international harmonization of the procured data.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 2033-2053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaele Bernardello ◽  
Irina Marinov ◽  
Jaime B. Palter ◽  
Jorge L. Sarmiento ◽  
Eric D. Galbraith ◽  
...  

Abstract The separate impacts of wind stress, buoyancy fluxes, and CO2 solubility on the oceanic storage of natural carbon are assessed in an ensemble of twentieth- to twenty-first-century simulations, using a coupled atmosphere–ocean–carbon cycle model. Time-varying perturbations for surface wind stress, temperature, and salinity are calculated from the difference between climate change and preindustrial control simulations, and are imposed on the ocean in separate simulations. The response of the natural carbon storage to each perturbation is assessed with novel prognostic biogeochemical tracers, which can explicitly decompose dissolved inorganic carbon into biological, preformed, equilibrium, and disequilibrium components. Strong responses of these components to changes in buoyancy and winds are seen at high latitudes, reflecting the critical role of intermediate and deep waters. Overall, circulation-driven changes in carbon storage are mainly due to changes in buoyancy fluxes, with wind-driven changes playing an opposite but smaller role. Results suggest that climate-driven perturbations to the ocean natural carbon cycle will contribute 20 Pg C to the reduction of the ocean accumulated total carbon uptake over the period 1860–2100. This reflects a strong compensation between a buildup of remineralized organic matter associated with reduced deep-water formation (+96 Pg C) and a decrease of preformed carbon (−116 Pg C). The latter is due to a warming-induced decrease in CO2 solubility (−52 Pg C) and a circulation-induced decrease in disequilibrium carbon storage (−64 Pg C). Climate change gives rise to a large spatial redistribution of ocean carbon, with increasing concentrations at high latitudes and stronger vertical gradients at low latitudes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1950) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan B. Munch ◽  
Who Seung Lee ◽  
Matthew Walsh ◽  
Thomas Hurst ◽  
Ben A. Wasserman ◽  
...  

Transgenerational plasticity (TGP) occurs when phenotypes are shaped by the environment in both the current and preceding generations. Transgenerational responses to rainfall, CO 2 and temperature suggest that TGP may play an important role in how species cope with climate change. However, little is known about how TGP will evolve as climate change continues. Here, we provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the predictability of the environment influences the magnitude of the transgenerational response. To do so, we take advantage of the latitudinal decrease in the predictability of temperatures in near shore waters along the US East Coast. Using sheepshead minnows ( Cyprinodon variegatus ) from South Carolina, Maryland, and Connecticut, we found the first evidence for a latitudinal gradient in thermal TGP. Moreover, the degree of TGP in these populations depends linearly on the decorrelation time for temperature, providing support for the hypothesis that thermal predictability drives the evolution of these traits.


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