Zero-inflated spatio-temporal models for disease mapping

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Torabi
Keyword(s):  
Disease Mapping ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal

scholarly journals An Autoregressive Disease Mapping Model for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
Francisca Corpas-Burgos ◽  
Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Disease Mapping ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Polynomial Fit ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Temporal Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal

One of the more evident uses of spatio-temporal disease mapping is forecasting the spatial distribution of diseases for the next few years following the end of the period of study. Spatio-temporal models rely on very different modeling tools (polynomial fit, splines, time series, etc.), which could show very different forecasting properties. In this paper, we introduce an enhancement of a previous autoregressive spatio-temporal model with particularly interesting forecasting properties, given its reliance on time series modeling. We include a common spatial component in that model and show how that component improves the previous model in several ways, its predictive capabilities being one of them. In this paper, we introduce and explore the theoretical properties of this model and compare them with those of the original autoregressive model. Moreover, we illustrate the benefits of this new model with the aid of a comprehensive study on 46 different mortality data sets in the Valencian Region (Spain) where the benefits of the new proposed model become evident.

scholarly journals Pyramidal Framework: Guidance for the Next Generation of GIS Spatial-Temporal Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
Cyril Carré ◽  
Younes Hamdani
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Temporal Modeling ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Gis Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
New Interpretation ◽  
Conventional Literature

Over the last decade, innovative computer technologies and the multiplication of geospatial data acquisition solutions have transformed the geographic information systems (GIS) landscape and opened up new opportunities to close the gap between GIS and the dynamics of geographic phenomena. There is a demand to further develop spatio-temporal conceptual models to comprehensively represent the nature of the evolution of geographic objects. The latter involves a set of considerations like those related to managing changes and object identities, modeling possible causal relations, and integrating multiple interpretations. While conventional literature generally presents these concepts separately and rarely approaches them from a holistic perspective, they are in fact interrelated. Therefore, we believe that the semantics of modeling would be improved by considering these concepts jointly. In this work, we propose to represent these interrelationships in the form of a hierarchical pyramidal framework and to further explore this set of concepts. The objective of this framework is to provide a guideline to orient the design of future generations of GIS data models, enabling them to achieve a better representation of available spatio-temporal data. In addition, this framework aims at providing keys for a new interpretation and classification of spatio-temporal conceptual models. This work can be beneficial for researchers, students, and developers interested in advanced spatio-temporal modeling.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal expectile regression models

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 386-409
Author(s):  
Elmar Spiegel ◽  
Thomas Kneib ◽  
Fabian Otto-Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Tensor Product ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Expectile Regression ◽  
Specific Distribution ◽  
Weighted Means ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Error Terms ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Main Effects

Spatio-temporal models are becoming increasingly popular in recent regression research. However, they usually rely on the assumption of a specific parametric distribution for the response and/or homoscedastic error terms. In this article, we propose to apply semiparametric expectile regression to model spatio-temporal effects beyond the mean. Besides the removal of the assumption of a specific distribution and homoscedasticity, with expectile regression the whole distribution of the response can be estimated. For the use of expectiles, we interpret them as weighted means and estimate them by established tools of (penalized) least squares regression. The spatio-temporal effect is set up as an interaction between time and space either based on trivariate tensor product P-splines or the tensor product of a Gaussian Markov random field and a univariate P-spline. Importantly, the model can easily be split up into main effects and interactions to facilitate interpretation. The method is presented along the analysis of spatio-temporal variation of temperatures in Germany from 1980 to 2014.

scholarly journals A Case Study for Modelling Cancer Incidence Using Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 325-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Su Yun Kang ◽  
James McGree ◽  
Peter Baade ◽  
Kerrie Mengersen
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal mapping and detection of mortality cluster due to cardiovascular disease with Bayesian hierarchical framework using integrated nested Laplace approximation: A discussion of suitable statistic applications in Kersa, Oromia, Ethiopia

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melkamu Dedefo ◽  
Henry Mwambi ◽  
Sileshi Fanta ◽  
Nega Assefa
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Hierarchical Framework ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Non Parametric

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death globally and the number one cause of death globally. Over 75% of CVD deaths take place in low- and middle-income countries. Hence, comprehensive information about the spatio-temporal distribution of mortality due to cardio vascular disease is of interest. We fitted different spatio-temporal models within Bayesian hierarchical framework allowing different space-time interaction for mortality mapping with integrated nested Laplace approximations to analyze mortality data extracted from the health and demographic surveillance system in Kersa District in Hararege, Oromia Region, Ethiopia. The result indicates that non-parametric time trends models perform better than linear models. Among proposed models, one with non-parametric trend, type II interaction and second order random walk but without unstructured time effect was found to perform best according to our experience and. simulation study. An application based on real data revealed that, mortality due to CVD increased during the study period, while administrative regions in northern and south-eastern part of the study area showed a significantly elevated risk. The study highlighted distinct spatiotemporal clusters of mortality due to CVD within the study area. The study is a preliminary assessment step in prioritizing areas for further and more comprehensive research raising questions to be addressed by detailed investigation. Underlying contributing factors need to be identified and accurately quantified.

Spatio-temporal disease mapping

2019 ◽  
pp. 281-317
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito ◽  
Paloma Botella-Rocamora
Keyword(s):  
Disease Mapping ◽  
Spatio Temporal

scholarly journals Comparison between VAR, GSTAR, FFNN-VAR and FFNN-GSTAR Models for Forecasting Oil Production

MATEMATIKA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suhartono Suhartono ◽  
Dedy Dwi Prastyo ◽  
Heri Kuswanto ◽  
Muhammad Hisyam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Accurate Forecast ◽  
Temporal Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Monthly data about oil production at several drilling wells is an example of spatio-temporal data. The aim of this research is to propose nonlinear spatio-temporal model, i.e. Feedforward Neural Network - Vector Autoregressive (FFNN-VAR) and FFNN - Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (FFNN-GSTAR), and compare their forecast accuracy to linear spatio-temporal model, i.e. VAR and GSTAR. These spatio-temporal models are proposed and applied for forecasting monthly oil production data at three drilling wells in East Java, Indonesia. There are 60 observations that be divided to two parts, i.e. the first 50 observations for training data and the last 10 observations for testing data. The results show that FFNN-GSTAR(11) and FFNN-VAR(1) as nonlinear spatio-temporal models tend to give more accurate forecast than VAR(1) and GSTAR(11) as linear spatio-temporal models. Moreover, further research about nonlinear spatio-temporal models based on neural networks and GSTAR is needed for developing new hybrid models that could improve the forecast accuracy.

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