The East Timor Humanitarian Crisis

This chapter analyses the East Timor humanitarian crisis of 1999. It shows how interest divergence between Indonesia, the United States, and Australia following the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, led to external powers applying pressure on Indonesia, to elicit regime change in East Timor. In a weakened state, Indonesia was coerced into accepting an international peacekeeping force in East Timor, despite asserting that such a force would constitute an unacceptable breach of its state sovereignty. Critically, ASEAN institutional cohesion alone was not sufficient to prevent Indonesian sovereignty violation at this time.

The Third Indochina War1

This chapter reviews the events of the Third Indochina War between 1978 and 1991. Analysis of recently declassified United States documents helps shed light on the informal alliance that developed between Thailand, China, the ASEAN states, the ousted Khmer Rouge, and to a lesser extent the United States, in an effort to contain Vietnamese and Soviet influence in Southeast Asia following Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia in 1978. As a consequence of high interest convergence between Thailand and a designated external power, China, ASEAN was able to resist violations to the sovereignty of Thailand from a Soviet-backed Vietnam.

Interests and Vanguard State Theory1

This chapter explores in more depth the contending arguments for sovereignty violation in Southeast Asia. It highlights the ways in which constructivist, realist and critical theorists have approached the topic of ASEAN regionalism and member state autonomy, and the strengths and weaknesses of each argument. This is followed by a detailed analysis of vanguard state theory, and the ways in which the argument presented can build upon existing literature. The chapter defines and measures the theory’s variables of interest convergence and ASEAN (non)resistance to sovereignty violation. It then conceptualizes ASEAN in more detail, and concludes with a discussion of the methodology that has been adopted.

The Future of ASEAN Sovereignty?

This chapter concludes by analysing the research findings to provide a definitive response to the central research question advanced in this book. In doing so, it assesses the applicability of vanguard state theory to sovereignty violation in Southeast Asia, and concludes by considering the potential effects of humanitarian intervention and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) on the future of ASEAN sovereignty.

The South China Sea Dispute1

This chapter analyses the South China Sea dispute from 1992 to present day. It shows how partial interest convergence between the Philippines, Vietnam and the United States has been insufficient to prevent these dual vanguard states from having their maritime sovereignty violated by an assertive China. Through the analysis of three separate time periods, 1992-2012, 2012-2016, and 2016 to present, the chapter traces the varying levels of interest convergence and intra-ASEAN cohesion, both of which have failed to reach the robust levels required to satisfy vanguard state theory.

The Indonesian Invasion of East Timor

This chapter analyses the Indonesian invasion of East Timor in 1975, providing evidence to show how the Cold War regional environment created a convergence of interests between Indonesia, the ASEAN vanguard state, the United States and Australia with regards to the newly decolonized territory of East Timor. With external and regional power backing, Indonesia was able to invade East Timor without any repercussions from the international community, despite considerable attempts by the United Nations to intervene in Indonesia’s internal affairs to allow the East Timorese an act of self-determination. Indonesian interest convergence with these external powers meant that it was able to resist sovereignty violation at this time.