India

This chapter assesses whether and how India is developing into a rising power in the Persian Gulf. Dionysis Markakis approaches India’s reconnection with the region in terms of ‘middle power theory’ and disaggregates the dominant economic, sociocultural, and military drivers of Indian policies in the Persian Gulf. Markakis suggests that India is still attempting to carve out its niche in the international system and that multiple factors lie behind its reticence to engage proactively in regional and world affairs. These include the strong element of multilateral alignment that runs through Indian foreign policy as well as domestic institutional weaknesses within the structure of Indian government itself. For Markakis, a primary challenge for Indian policymakers is how to outline a more proactive, rather than reactive, approach to foreign policy and the conception and exercise of power.

Links between Domestic and Regional Security

This chapter examines the myriad linkages between domestic and regional security and how these are evolving across the Persian Gulf. The Persian Gulf noticeably did not share in the evolution of security structures that took place in other world regions such as Eastern Europe or Latin America during the 1980s and 1990s. Instead, the fallout from the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 and policy responses to the Arab Spring in 2011 led to the growth of what Kristian Coates Ulrichsen labels a “geopolitical straitjacket” that contributed to the rise of sectarian identity politics and the emergence of the dangerous new threat from ISIS. Coates Ulrichsen details the policy dilemmas that ISIS presents to policymakers in GCC states who face the additional pressure of having to take sensitive decisions against the backdrop of a potentially prolonged period of low oil prices and fiscal stress.

The Politics of Succession in Saudi Arabia

This chapter explores the succession dynamics that came to prominence in Saudi Arabia after the accession of King Salman to the throne in January 2015 and the acceleration of the generational handover of eventual power to the grandsons of Abdul-Aziz Al Saud. Joseph Kéchichian examines the politics of Saudi succession and offers an in-depth perspective on the new actors who will reshape Saudi leadership in the years and decades ahead. Kéchichian analyzes the momentous changes in the Saudi policy landscape unveiled during the early months of King Salman’s reign and assesses the unprecedented replacement of the Crown Prince in April 2015 in the context of the (seemingly) decisive resolution of the generational transition question that had become a parlor game for analysts and commentators alike.

A Regional Great Game?

This chapter explores the turbulent relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia since the pivotal year of 1979 – the year of both the Iranian revolution and significant domestic turmoil in Saudi Arabia. Nader Entessar examines how the very different foreign policy objectives by the two regional powers in the Persian Gulf have evolved since 1979. Entessar provides a wide-ranging overview of the national interests and motivations, levels of threat perception and military balance, and changing domestic and foreign policy context that feed into the regional roles of Saudi Arabia and Iran and underscores the point that the projection, and degree, of influence projected by each is not static but fluctuates as domestic, regional, and global political and strategic circumstances themselves shift. Entessar argues that a “diplomacy deficit” has exacerbated volatility in the Persian Gulf and contributed to a zero-sum approach to regional security.

The Transformation of UAE Foreign Policy since 2011

This chapter explores the transformation of UAE foreign policy since 2011 as the country moved far beyond traditional understandings of small state behavior and combined elements of soft and hard power in a hawkish and interventionist approach to regional insecurity. With the UAE deeply involved in the GCC-led military campaign in Yemen and in the struggle to shape the political transitions in North African states after 2011, Khalid Almezaini uses theoretical and empirical analysis to highlight the threat perceptions and policy drivers that illustrate why officials in the UAE changed course and broke free of the structural constraints that normally govern the actions of small states. Almezaini demonstrates that the shifts in the UAE’s external posture reflected a combination of internal and external pressures as domestic concerns over the perceived threat to stability posed by the Muslim Brotherhood meshed with the rapidly changing regional context after the Arab Spring.

Youth, Protest, and the New Elite

This chapter provides a critical analysis of the youth-led protests that shook Kuwaiti politics in 2011 and 2012 and threatened for a time to flare out of control. Alanoud Alsharekh analyzes the multiple roots of youth dissatisfaction with the political and economic status quo in Kuwait and explores the intersection of youth-led demands for change with the broader pressure points that led Kuwait from one political crisis to another after 2006. Alsharekh documents how both the Kuwaiti government and the established political opposition failed to capitalize on the emergence of the politically-active new youth movement. The rise of youth-led groups that break the mold of established political systems has implications for all other GCC states and Iran. Alsharekh’s concluding observations on the difficulties in assimilating the region’s youthful population into existing power-sharing mechanisms – as well as labor market structures – holds great comparative significance for future stability and sustainable growth.

The Emerging Energy Landscape Economic and Strategic Implications

This chapter explores the changing landscape of global energy and its economic and security implications for Persian Gulf state. Gawdat Bahgat puts the ‘shale revolution’ in North America into the context of broader U.S. strategic interests in the Gulf and the wider Middle East and assesses the implications of the divergent trajectories whereby the U.S. has become less dependent on imported Persian Gulf oil while China has moved in the opposite direction. Bahgat analyzes also the strategic implications for Persian Gulf producers of long-term trends such as the growing drive for energy efficiencies, rising concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing diversity of the global energy mix. Bahgat ends by assessing how the post-2014 volatility in international oil prices presents both a set of challenges and opportunities for Persian Gulf producers who continue to utilize energy interdependency to underpin their security and strategic relationships with international partners.

Introduction

This introductory chapter explores the changing complexion of security agendas in the Persian Gulf in the turbulent aftermath of the Arab Spring in 2011 and the twin shocks of the oil price collapse and sudden rise of ISIS in 2014. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen argues that new sources of insecurity emerged at the national, regional, and international levels after 2011 for the countries of the Persian Gulf. Domestic developments in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran’s partial rapprochement with world powers interfered with the balance of power and threat perception in the Gulf and contributed to the internationalization of the Yemen war in 2015 and greater volatility in decision-making. A muscular new approach to policymaking at the regional level emerged just as officials grappled with new challenges domestically as oil prices fell and greater unpredictability internationally with the election of Donald Trump in 2016.

The Rise of ISIS

This chapter examines the collective action dilemma at the heart of GCC states’ security policies in chapter seven in view of the startling eruption of ISIS as a regional security threat. Nussaibah Younis documents the internal disarray among GCC states in the months prior to the ISIS takeover of Mosul and declaration of a Caliphate in June 2014. While the early shock provided by the ISIS advance in Iraq compelled GCC rulers to put aside their differences temporarily and revisit stalled plans for a shared defense architecture, Younis demonstrates that their commitment to the multinational anti-ISIS coalition proved short-lived. GCC skepticism about the limited U.S. role in tackling ISIS and opposition to Iran’s perceived role of interference in regional flashpoints combined to refocus the renewal of GCC security cooperation on countering Iranian influence in the Persian Gulf rather than supporting the international fight against ISIS in Iraq and in Syria.

Towards the End of the Oligarchic Pact?

This chapter analyzes the “oligarchic pact” and the relationship between political and business actors in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, and Oman. Marc Valeri examines how state-business relations in these three case-studies have evolved as ruling families have become more involved in business and the private sector. This, Valeri argues, signifies an important shift away from the initial relationship between ruling and business elites that developed after the influx of large-scale oil revenues in the 1960s. The “unprecedented intrusion of ruling family members in the private sector” over recent years is likely to have implications for the social contract between ruler and ruled and, by extension, for domestic stability as the traditional ‘rentier bargain’ breaks down. Valeri draws out common themes from the study of three very different political economies and the nature and impact of the structural shift in the relationship between ruling and business elites in favor of the former.