The Middle East

The undeniable threat that Iran poses to the other countries of the Middle East has its roots in the fundamentalist Islamist ideology that the ruling clerics there espouse. The clerics aspire to evict the long-engrained military forces, aid, and other influences of the United States from the region and to thus become the dominant power. In pursuit of these ambitious goals, Iran has trained and sponsored various proxy forces and terrorists in other nearby countries and has sought to acquire nuclear weapons for the state. Ultimately, these efforts have served to undermine the prospects of building peace in the region.

Europe: The Lost Peace

In the wake of the Cold War, both the United States and Western Europe had an unprecedentedly peaceful relationship with Russia. That relationship eventually ended, however, to be replaced by conflict, for two reasons. First was the unwise Western decision to expand the Western alliance, also known as NATO, to Russia’s borders despite having promised not to do so. Second were aggressive Russian policies toward its neighbouring countries. These measures were undertaken by President Vladimir Putin as a way of winning popular support for his dictatorial rule, which had begun to lose favor across the state due to its economic shortcomings.

Peace Regained?

World peace is possible if and when the primary twenty-first-century disturbers of the Peace—namely Russia, China, and Iran—adopt democratic political systems. Democracies have demonstrated a pronounced tendency to conduct peaceful foreign policies, especially toward one another. Unfortunately, the world has shown by trial and error that democracy cannot be imposed from the outside on these or other countries. The revolution must come from within. There are forces favoring democracy, as well as trends and institutions opposing it, in all three of these powerful countries; but when or indeed whether any or all of them become democratic is unknown and unknowable.

East Asia: The Commercial Peace

China has ended the post–Cold War peace in East Asia by claiming, contrary to international law, sovereignty over most of the western Pacific Ocean, by rapidly increasing its military capability, and by bullying its neighbors. China’s aggressive policies stem from the Chinese version of nationalism, which sees China as having the right to exercise dominance in the region. Chinese aggression stems also from Xi Jinping’s desire to maintain public support for, or at least tolerance of, the dictatorship of his Communist Party—which the slowing of economic growth threatens—by presenting himself as China’s champion against foreign enemies. China has also increased the threat to the region through its support for North Korea, with its nuclear weapon program.