Mobilising the vote

This chapter focuses on mobilisation and turnout in Russia’s parliamentary elections. Through the use of electoral data, and focus group and survey results, it examines how voters balance cost, benefit, civic duty, and systemic disenchantment in a calculus of whether to vote. The first part of the chapter looks at the efforts of the authorities to mobilise voters using ‘administrative resources’, while the remainder of the chapter looks at how voters respond to these. Examination is made of the bases of turnout; patterns of and explanations for abstention; and the profiles of non-voters compared with those who cast a ballot. Many of those who do so vote out of a general sense of civic duty, rather than because they feel any sense of efficacy; and cynicism about the process has steadily been growing throughout the past few years.

Russian parliamentary elections 1993–2016: an overview

The chapter focuses on providing an overview of the role of the State Duma in Russia’s political system, and introduces the key actors within it throughout the post-Soviet Union period. It begins with a brief history of the evolution of the electoral process and party system from the late Soviet period to the present day. It then introduces the main political parties in the Russian electoral process, and the ‘family tree’ of such organisations from 1993 to 2016. Finally, it examines the changing role of the State Duma throughout the first quarter-century of its existence, as it has moved from a fledgling institution to a fully established part of the machinery of government.

Conclusions

This is the concluding chapter of Parliamentary Elections in Russia. It draws together the themes of the previous eight chapters, examining the evolution of the Russian political system, the campaigns for election to the State Duma between 1993 and 2016 and the party landscape of modern-day Russia. It concludes that the current stability in the Russian political system may be temporary and depends to a large extent on the continued popularity and legitimacy of Vladimir Putin. It discusses possible trajectories for future party system development in Putin’s fourth term.

How legitimate are Russia’s parliamentary elections?

How legitimate is the electoral process in post-Soviet Russia, and to what extent do reported electoral statistics reflect the actual will of the voters? It is not contended that we should regard all Russian election results with suspicion, nor that electoral malfeasance is unique to the country. Nonetheless, misgivings about the electoral process are voiced often enough that we cannot ignore them. The chapter provides an assessment of the legitimacy of the Russian electoral process through two perspectives. The first part examines the evidence of falsified results and major electoral rights violations in Russian elections, via observer reports, statistical analysis and analysis of official complaints. The second and third parts look at the question of external validity. Regardless of the actual evidence of electoral fraud, to what extent does the international community, and the Russian electorate, perceive the electoral process to be legitimate? Using survey and focus group materials, these questions – and the trends in public opinion over time – are examined.

Voting in parliamentary elections

This chapter examines Russians’ voting behaviour over the seven State Duma elections so far. It begins from a spatial perspective, by examining the changing geographical bases of support for the parties over time. Thereafter, it takes a more sociological viewpoint, examining the profile of the typical Russian voter, and each party’s electorate, using survey and focus group data. Over time, some sense of party affiliation has started to build up amongst the voters of the established parties. Finally, it looks at the extent to which Russians have been able to register their discontent with the system through the medium of elections – in particular, prior to 2003, by voting ‘against all’ candidates or parties.

On the campaign trail

This chapter examines the way parties present themselves – and are presented – to Russia’s electorate during election campaigns. In the first part of the chapter, examination is made of the approaches that the main parties take to campaign strategy and political marketing. There was a gradual professionalisation of the electoral process in the 1990s and early 2000s, with amateur candidates and campaigners gradually being replaced by professional political consultants. The use made of product-, sales- and market-oriented approaches is examined. The second part of the chapter analyses how election campaigns are covered in the media, using content analysis of television and other media coverage. Finally, public attitudes to election campaigning and media usage are assessed, with the aid of post-election surveys from each of the post-Soviet State Duma elections.

The party system

It is contended in this chapter that Russia’s post-Soviet party system has gone through three phases – fragmentation (1993–c.2002), consolidation (2002–2009) and cartelisation (c.2009 onwards). The Yeltsin era witnessed the prevalence of many independent candidates and the proliferation of minor parties without any societal or institutional roots. One of Putin’s key aims on coming to power was to change that. Since the mid-2000s, the political system has been dominated by United Russia, the ‘party of power’ set up with Putin’s sponsorship. It has served as a partisan front for the executive, at the same time as acting as a ‘clearing house’ for the resolution of intra-elite conflict and resource distribution. Alongside it, three other parliamentary parties survived by acting alongside UR in a cartel-like arrangement. These four parties have continued to dominate the party system even after recent liberalisation of the rules on party registration. Many of the numerous new parties established before the 2016 election fizzled out and proved largely insignificant.

The framework of Russian elections

The electoral law in Russia has been more than simply the rulebook for the game; it has become part of the elections game. The chapter examines the major and minor electoral reforms throughout the 1993–2016 period that fundamentally altered the incentive structures in the Russian political system. It outlines the ever more complex requirements that have advantaged those with greater resources and created Kremlin dominance over the electoral process. The first part of the chapter outlines these changes in detail, while the second part examines their significance and the circumstances under which they were implemented. In the final part, the role of electoral reform in a wider programme of institutional change is examined, particularly affecting the centre–periphery relations. It argues that institutional reform and political expediency were used to turn the federal and regional structures into a vertically-structured electoral ‘machine’.

Introduction

The chapter introduces the book Parliamentary Elections in Russia. It begins by outlining briefly the context of Russian politics since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the literature about its transition. It examines the role of Russia’s parliament – the Federal Assembly – and in particular, the powers of the State Duma. It ends by mapping the content and structure of the remaining eight chapters of the book.