The institutional evolution of central banks

This article contributes to the literature on central banks’ institutional rationale and evolution by analyzing the early development of the Bank of England as a case study. The history of the Bank is scrutinized under the framework of entangled political economy, revealing its origins in a process of bank and political bargains. The account clarifies the process by which the political and economic order becomes increasingly intertwined throughout the banking system, via political bargains under incomplete contracts. The analysis suggests that entanglement allows governments and non-profit organizations to transmit some of their features to banking organizations in exchange for financial benefits. Transmitting nonmarket characteristics through recurrent bargains leads a for-profit bank to gradually transform into a central bank. The article proposes an alternative rationale for the unintended emergence of central banks, providing evidence in favor of their politically oriented development, rather than their alleged intrinsic nature.

Incomplete Contracts in Multi-period Procurement

We analyze the problem of a buyer who purchases a long-term project from one of several suppliers. A changing state of the world influences the costs of the suppliers. We distinguish between complete contracts conditioning on all future realizations of the state of the world and incomplete contracts renegotiated whenever the state of the world changes. We provide conditions such that incomplete contracting does not pose a problem. If the changing state of the world is publicly observable and the buyer cannot switch between suppliers during the lifetime of the project, the buyer achieves the same surplus irrespective of whether contracts are complete or incomplete. An English auction followed by renegotiation whenever the state of the world changes is optimal. To identify conditions when buyers should consider drafting complete contracts, we extend the analysis by considering private information about the changing state of the world and supplier switching. In both cases, incomplete contracting poses a problem. In a survey of procurement consultants, we confirm that publicly observable states of the world via price indexes play an important role in procurement. Moreover, the consultants confirm that supplier switching is infrequent in procurement practice. Thus, incomplete contracting is less of a problem in a considerable share of procurement projects. However, complete contracts are useful and could be used more often. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis.

Tension in New Zealand's Public Hospitals: Performance Effects of Sharpening Incentives

<p>New Zealand's health sector reforms in the mid-1990s introduced corporate institutions and market disciplines to public hospitals. Yet the reorganisation of New Zealand's public hospitals into Crown Health Enterprises (CHEs) led to severe criticisms. Ultimately the CHEs were replaced with non-profit Hospital and Health Services. This thesis focuses on three major criticisms of the CHEs. We use game theory to provide a formal and novel analysis of interactions that could cause an organisation's performance to differ markedly from the reformers' expectations. The analysis explains how a stylised set of reforms could fail to achieve their objectives. Chapter 2 analyses public hospital throughput data over the reform period. We find that the CHE reforms were independently associated with an increase in hospitals' treatment costs. This chapter motivates the theoretical analyses of the three criticisms of the CHEs. We structure the theoretic analysis using an organisational hierarchy with four actors: a funder, an (hospital) administrator, a (medical) specialist and a (health) consumer. The first criticism was that CHE Boards paid bonuses despite managers failing to achieve performance targets. Chapter 3 examines when a funder may want to revise the budget of an organisation and to pay the administrator a bonus despite failing to meet a target. We introduce three features of the CHE reforms that conventional soft budget constraint models partly or entirely neglect: funder bargaining power, revisable targets and performance bonuses. A flexible budget constraint paired with bonuses can be efficient in the light of uncertainty. The second criticism was that costs escalated despite strong managerial incentives for cost control. Chapter 4 argues that such incentives could disrupt trust in an organisation. We show that sharpening the administrator's incentives for cost control can create a misalignment between the administrator and the specialist and cause costs to escalate. Our result, that incentivising a measurable dimension of performance can worsen performance of that same task, contrasts with the conventional game-theoretic literature. The third criticism was that the reforms let doctors manipulate managers, resulting in inefficiency. The first model of Chapter 5 shows that an administrator might want to encourage a specialist to influence public opinion. We modify the first model to reflect a feature of the reforms: managerial efforts aimed at improving the organisation's operation. The administrator can damage a whistle-blower's credibility, to the detriment of specialists and patients. Both models give original insights into how the reforms could let an administrator take advantage of his role. In this multi-layered model, the administrator may intentionally reduce communication. The CHE reformers expected performance incentives to flow through a corporate structure to improve efficiency. Rather than a cascade of beneficial incentives, incomplete contracts could cause unintentional negative interactions. Tension and perverse incentives could have caused costs to rise, necessitating budget revisions and additional bonus payments, while permitting administrators to silence whistle-blowers. This research shows how complex organisations that rely on soft information can benefit from systems that enhance trust and collaboration, and may be harmed by unhealthy tension.</p>

Tension in New Zealand's Public Hospitals: Performance Effects of Sharpening Incentives

<p>New Zealand's health sector reforms in the mid-1990s introduced corporate institutions and market disciplines to public hospitals. Yet the reorganisation of New Zealand's public hospitals into Crown Health Enterprises (CHEs) led to severe criticisms. Ultimately the CHEs were replaced with non-profit Hospital and Health Services. This thesis focuses on three major criticisms of the CHEs. We use game theory to provide a formal and novel analysis of interactions that could cause an organisation's performance to differ markedly from the reformers' expectations. The analysis explains how a stylised set of reforms could fail to achieve their objectives. Chapter 2 analyses public hospital throughput data over the reform period. We find that the CHE reforms were independently associated with an increase in hospitals' treatment costs. This chapter motivates the theoretical analyses of the three criticisms of the CHEs. We structure the theoretic analysis using an organisational hierarchy with four actors: a funder, an (hospital) administrator, a (medical) specialist and a (health) consumer. The first criticism was that CHE Boards paid bonuses despite managers failing to achieve performance targets. Chapter 3 examines when a funder may want to revise the budget of an organisation and to pay the administrator a bonus despite failing to meet a target. We introduce three features of the CHE reforms that conventional soft budget constraint models partly or entirely neglect: funder bargaining power, revisable targets and performance bonuses. A flexible budget constraint paired with bonuses can be efficient in the light of uncertainty. The second criticism was that costs escalated despite strong managerial incentives for cost control. Chapter 4 argues that such incentives could disrupt trust in an organisation. We show that sharpening the administrator's incentives for cost control can create a misalignment between the administrator and the specialist and cause costs to escalate. Our result, that incentivising a measurable dimension of performance can worsen performance of that same task, contrasts with the conventional game-theoretic literature. The third criticism was that the reforms let doctors manipulate managers, resulting in inefficiency. The first model of Chapter 5 shows that an administrator might want to encourage a specialist to influence public opinion. We modify the first model to reflect a feature of the reforms: managerial efforts aimed at improving the organisation's operation. The administrator can damage a whistle-blower's credibility, to the detriment of specialists and patients. Both models give original insights into how the reforms could let an administrator take advantage of his role. In this multi-layered model, the administrator may intentionally reduce communication. The CHE reformers expected performance incentives to flow through a corporate structure to improve efficiency. Rather than a cascade of beneficial incentives, incomplete contracts could cause unintentional negative interactions. Tension and perverse incentives could have caused costs to rise, necessitating budget revisions and additional bonus payments, while permitting administrators to silence whistle-blowers. This research shows how complex organisations that rely on soft information can benefit from systems that enhance trust and collaboration, and may be harmed by unhealthy tension.</p>

Negotiating incomplete contracts

When planning is possible, as in predictive environments, comprehensive contracting is not only desirable, but also useful. However, under conditions of fundamental uncertainty, as is the case in non-predictive environments, incomplete contracting approaches likely prevail. In this study, we explore how trust in such environments affects the way in which venturing professionals negotiate, and how the outcome subsequently manifests itself in the negotiated agreement. In particular, building upon a sample of Norwegian firms, we find that stewardship relationships are more prone to incomplete contracting approaches than agency relationships, paving the way for a relational approach to contracting when uncertainty is high. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Trust, Incomplete Contracting, and Corporate Innovation

Innovation is a contract-intensive economic activity in a world of incomplete contracts. We show that trust mitigates incomplete contracting and enhances innovation by acting as an informal contracting mechanism. Trust plays an especially important role when formal laws and regulations are lacking, and it promotes innovation by encouraging collaboration and fostering tolerance for failure. Further analyses show that trust also facilitates cross-border technological spillover and innovation collaboration. Overall, our evidence highlights innovation as a key conduit through which trust affects economic growth. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

Contract Farming, Social Trust, And Cleaner Production Technology Adoption By Broiler Farmers In China

Pollution from livestock and poultry is the main source of agricultural non-point-source pollution, which directly affects the rural ecological environment as well as the quality and safety of agricultural products. Based on field experiment data of broiler farmers in China, this paper analyzes the cleaner production behavior of farmers from the perspective of incomplete contracts and social trust. We find that social trust can promote farmers' cleaner production behaviors. Moreover, we find that contract farming (CF) has a significant positive effect on farmers' social trust and cleaner production behaviors. Further analysis indicates that CF not only directly promotes farmers' cleaner production, but can also indirectly promote farmers' cleaner production by improving their interpersonal and institutional trust. Overall, this research offers a new point of view for improving the rural environment and sheds light upon how the government can formulate relevant policies to promote farmers' cleaner production technology adoption.

A theoretical foundation for games of complete/incomplete contracts

This paper provides a theoretical foundation for complete/incomplete contracts to extend game theory for multi-agent interactions. We explain why rational agents may agree to sign incomplete contracts even though signing a complete contract incurs no cost. Some arguments claim that an incomplete contract creates strategic uncertainty. Under common assumptions of rationality, an incomplete contract can be the final solution if the agents’ attitudes toward uncertainty are not neutral. Assuming that agents can form coalitions by participating in the game and they are uncertainty averse, we develop equilibrium solutions for complete/incomplete contracts in an extensive game of multi-agent interactions.

Technology Uncertainty and Incompleteness in Trade Agreements: Reflections from the Design of India’s Bilateral Agreements Covering Services

International trade agreements are incomplete contracts. The international environment is non-stationary, and technological progress affects both the nature of services and modes of service delivery. This creates uncertainty about future developments in technology-based services. In the presence of transactions costs and due to limited foresight, it is difficult to specify all contingencies within trade agreements ex ante, resulting in contractual incompleteness. This article investigates the design of India’s services agreements to assess the approach followed while listing the ex ante commitment and its implication on technology-based services. It also discusses the ex post mechanism under these agreements to address the gaps in the commitments with respect to new services, and the enforcement mechanism to facilitate the inclusion of these services. It is found that India’s bilateral agreements leave the inclusion of services that may not be technically feasible, ex ante, at the discretion of the trading partners, ex post. Some of India’s agreements also institute a governance mechanism for facilitating this inclusion. The article argues that there is a need for addressing the issue of technology uncertainty both at an international-trade-policy level and under bilateral agreements. Internationally, efforts are underway for a technology-neutral classification of services. Bilateral agreements must include a robust mechanism within the scope of the Agreement for filling gaps that may arise with technological advancements. For furthering the objective of trade agreements, these mechanisms must be backed by sound governance structure. JEL Codes: L80, L84, L86, F13, K33, F53, F55