The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling

In this paper, we test whether the short-run econometric conditions for the basic assumptions of the Ohlson valuation model hold, and then we relate these results with the fulfillment of the short-run econometric conditions for this model to be effective. Better future modeling motivated us to analyze to what extent the assumptions involved in this seminal model are not good enough approximations to solve the firm valuation problem, causing poor model performance. The model is based on the well-known dividend discount model and the residual income valuation model, and it adds a linear information model, which is a time series model by nature. Therefore, we adopt the time series approach. In the presence of non-stationary variables, we focus our research on US-listed firms for which more than forty years of data with the required cointegration properties to use error correction models are available. The results show that the clean surplus relation assumption has no impact on model performance, while the unbiased accounting property assumption has an important effect on it. The results also emphasize the uselessness of forcing valuation models to match the value displacement property of dividends.

City Union Bank: Residual Income Approach to Valuation

The case study is about the valuation of one of the profitable banks in southern India, City Union Bank Ltd (CUB). The bank was adjudged as the ‘best small bank’ by BusinessWorld’s Best Banks Survey 2016. The bank has seen a meteoric rise in its stock price during the period 2013–2017 and outperformed other banks in the industry in terms of non-performing assets (NPA), return on assets, capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and so on. The stock has been attracting the attention of the investing fraternity. An analyst is assigned the job of valuing CUB’s stock. Residual income valuation method is employed for valuation and facilitates in decision-making. The valuation exercise involves projection of financials and estimation of cost of equity, terminal growth rate and residual income. The case also considers other key parameters associated with the banking sector in decision-making.

Can a Hybrid Method Improve Equity Valuation? An Empirical Evaluation of the Ohlson and Johannesson (2016) Model

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the validity and usefulness of “hybrid” valuation models. We recast the model in Ohlson and Johannesson (2016) as a hybrid of the Dividend Discount Model and an earnings-based price multiple model, and develop a new hybrid model that generalizes the Residual Income Valuation Model. After validating the theoretical properties of these models' unique parameters, we assess the usefulness of the hybrid models in two applications. In application one, we find that intrinsic values from the hybrid models are more accurate than those from common discounted models or price multiple models. These improvements are attributable to the hybrid models' ability to incorporate stock price and more realistic assumptions about growth. In application two, we find that the implied cost of equity from the hybrid models better captures systematic risks and key idiosyncratic risks, and captures expected returns. These results demonstrate the validity and usefulness of hybrid valuation models. JEL Classifications: G12; G14; G17; G31; M41. Data Availability: The data used are publicly available from the sources cited in the text.

Cross-sectional variation in revenue-expense relation and cost of equity

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether revenue-expense matching is inversely associated with cost of capital and information asymmetry, respectively, in the equity markets. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a firm-specific measure of revenue-expense matching consistent with Dichev and Tang (2008). To obtain a proxy for cost of equity, this paper uses the average ex ante implied cost of capital estimate calculated from analysts’ forecast data, which are based on the Feltham–Ohlson residual income valuation framework. In additional tests, this paper uses the probability of informed trades (PIN) as a proxy for information asymmetry among equity investors. This paper employs both OLS and fractional logit regression models to test main predictions. Findings This paper documents that firms with high revenue-expense matching enjoy a lower cost of capital, supporting the direct impact of high matching on cost of capital by increasing the precision of public information signals. Further, matching of contemporaneous revenues and expenses is inversely associated with information asymmetry, suggesting that the indirect impact of high matching on cost of capital through its impact on information asymmetry is also plausible. Originality/value Although an extensive body of literature has established a link between various disclosure/earnings properties and cost of capital, this research is the first to establish a link between matching and cost of capital. This paper fills the void in the literature by showing that revenue-expense matching – a fundamental property of accounting earnings – affects equity investors’ required rate of returns.

Resolving the Reliance on Fixed Estimation Dates in the Implied Cost of Equity Capital Approach

Our study’s objective is to develop and analyze a dynamic approach for estimating firms’ expected cost of equity capital. We contribute to the literature by enabling the usage of any required estimation date, resolving the major shortcoming of the existing models—their reliance on one fixed estimation date. This paper presents our model and discusses it from the perspective of the extant body of literature. We show that the current state of the art approach in dynamic estimation does not satisfy theoretical and practical demands, and offers scope for significant improvements. We conduct our analysis by specially considering capital market efficiency, the consistent appreciation of cash flows with respect to timing, and straightforward practical implementation for researchers and practitioners. Building on semi-strong capital market efficiency, the analysis reveals further insights into residual income valuation as we demonstrate that any realization of residual income in the course of the year is irrelevant to valuation in the absence of dividend realization. Consequently, assumptions regarding the shape of earnings in the course of the year are also irrelevant to valuation. Additionally, our theoretically founded model conveniently facilitates the undistorted incorporation of different fiscal year-ends in large samples and avoids stale measures of expected cost of equity capital.

Relevância Informacional Atribuída ao Disclosure de Gastos Ambientais

Buscou-se neste estudo examinar a relevância informacional atribuída à divulgação de dispêndios ambientais em firmas consideradas sustentáveis no mercado brasileiro. O modelo teórico-empírico proposto por Ohlson (1995) foi aplicado aos dados de 44 firmas no período 2011-2015, totalizando 220 observações. O modelo Residual Income Valuation (RIV) (OHLSON, 1995) permite avaliar quantitativamente como o disclosure complementar impacta as expectativas dos investidores e reflete no valor das firmas. As estimações econométricas foram realizadas com dados em painel com efeitos fixos. Os resultados da análise mostram que o disclosure de gastos ambientais não é fator distintivo na precificação; porém, os dispêndios ambientais refletem menores preços da firma. As inferências podem corroborar o campo de estudo que questiona sobre a real competência dos proprietários das firmas em relação ao objeto social da empresa, além de alçar discussões sobre o monitoramento de gastos ambientais discricionários em firmas de capital aberto no Brasil. Os resultados apresentados alimentam discussões sobre a demanda da apresentação do resultado ambiental nas demonstrações financeiras tradicionais, uma vez que essa informação apresenta relevância informacional.