DAMPAK PERUBAHAN PAJAK IMPOR INDIA DAN KAPASITAS PRODUKSI INDUSTRI HILIR MINYAK SAWIT MENTAH INDONESIA TERHADAP DAYA SAING DAN PENERIMAAN DEVISA INDONESIA

Abstrak India meningkatkan pajak impor CPO menyebabkan ekspor CPO Indonesia turun sehingga penerimaan devisa dari ekspor CPO juga menurun. Indonesia seharusnya tidak terus bergantung pada devisa dari ekspor CPO, apalagi Indonesia masih mengimpor produk turunan CPO. Indonesia harus terus menumbuhkembangkan industri hilir CPO yang lebih besar menghasilkan nilai tambah dan devisa. Oleh karena itu, perlu kebijakan pemerintah yang tepat guna mendukung hilirisasi industri CPO. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk: (1) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impor CPO India; harga ekspor CPO Indonesia ke India; harga domestik CPO dan permintaan CPO oleh industri minyak goreng sawit, margarin, dan sabun; dan (2) mengevaluasi dampak peningkatan pajak impor CPO India dan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO terhadap daya saing ekspor CPO Indonesia-Malaysia, minyak goreng sawit, margarin dan sabun Indonesia serta penerimaan devisa ekspor CPO, minyak goreng sawit, margarin, dan sabun Indonesia periode 2015-2017. Artikel ini merupakan bagian dari penelitian tentang penawaran dan permintaan minyak sawit dan produk turunan yang menggunakan model ekonometrika yaitu: sistem persamaan simultan dinamis. Peningkatan harga CPO dunia akan berpengaruh besar terhadap harga ekspor CPO Indonesia ke India. Peningkatan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO akan berpengaruh besar terhadap permintaan CPO dan produksi produk turunannya. Untuk meningkatkan daya saing dan nilai penerimaan devisa ekspor produk turunan CPO Indonesia, pada kondisi India atau negara importir utama lainnya meningkatan pajak impor CPO maka pemerintah perlu memfasilitasi peningkatan kapasitas produksi industri hilir CPO dan produksi produk turunan CPO di Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Pajak Impor CPO, Permintaan CPO, Devisa, Ekonometrika, Simulasi Abstract India increased the CPO import tax rate causing Indonesia's CPO exports to fall so that foreign exchange revenues from CPO exports also declined. Indonesia should not continue to depend on these, especially since Indonesia still imports CPO-derived products. Indonesia must continue to develop CPO downstream industries that larger producing added value and foreign exchange revenues. The right government policies are needed to support development the CPO downstreaming industries. This article aims to: (1) analyze the factors affecting Indian CPO imports; Indonesian CPO export prices to India; CPO domestic prices and CPO demand by the palm cooking oil, margarine, and soap industries; and (2) evaluating the impact of an increase in Indian CPO import tax rate and production capacity of CPO downstream industries on the competitiveness of Indonesia-Malaysia CPO exports, Indonesian exports of palm cooking oil, margarine and soap as well as Indonesian foreign exchange revenues in 2015-2017 period. This article is part of a research on the supply and demand of palm oil and its derivatives using the econometric model: dynamic simultaneous equation systems. The increase in world CPO prices will have a major effect on the export price of Indonesian CPO to India. The increase in the production capacity of the CPO downstream industry will have a major impact on the demand for CPO and the production of its derivative products. To increase the competitiveness and the value of foreign exchange earnings from Indonesian exports of CPO derivative products, in conditions of India or other major importing countries to increase CPO import taxes rate, government are needed to facilitate increasing in production capacity of the CPO downstream industry and the production of CPO derivative products in Indonesia. Keywords: CPO Import Taxes, Demand for CPO, Foreign Exchange, Econometric, Simulation

Socioeconomic status, well-being and mortality: a comprehensive life course analysis of panel data, Germany, 1984-2016

Background This study seeks to explore potential causal mechanisms involved in the observed associations between several socioeconomic status (SES) indicators, well-being and mortality, by taking a life course perspective focusing on (i) the trajectory of income and domain-specific well-being indicators, (ii) the influence of different SES indicators on well-being and mortality, (iii) the interactions between those trajectories, and (iv) the associations of the income and domain-specific well-being trajectories with all-cause mortality. Methods Socioeconomic status is operationalised by net household income, education, employment and marital status. Well-being is measured with two indicators: life satisfaction and satisfaction with health. Data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, collected between 1984 and 2016 and comprising more than 55,000 individuals, are analysed by means of longitudinal k-means cluster analysis, simultaneous equation systems and parametric time-to-death regressions. Results The analyses indicate the presence of large reciprocal effects of the trajectories of income and well-being on each other. However, the results suggest that well-being has a larger influence on income than the opposite, namely, income on well-being. The mortality analysis, on the other hand, revealed that the history of satisfaction with health is a much stronger predictor of longevity than the individual’s income history. Mortality risk was found lower among married individuals and those with tertiary education. In contrast, unemployment was associated with lower income and well-being levels. The findings provide support to the notion that education is a superior SES indicator than income in the investigation of the social determinants of well-being and mortality. Conclusion The present study provides evidence of large reciprocal effects of income and well-being and emphasises the importance of taking a life course approach in the investigation of the social determinants of health. Several SES indicators and both well-being indicators were found to be highly predictive of all-cause mortality and indicate the presence of cumulative effects related to one’s income and well-being trajectories.

Multilevel Multiprocess Modeling with Gsem

Multilevel multiprocess models are simultaneous equation systems that include multilevel hazard equations with correlated random effects. Demographers routinely use these models to adjust estimates for endogeneity and sample selection. In this article, I demonstrate how multilevel multiprocess models can be fit with the gsem command. I distinguish between two classes of multilevel multiprocess models: nonrecursive systems of hazard equations without observed endogenous variables and recursive systems that include a hazard equation with observed endogenous qualitative variables. I illustrate the estimation of both classes of models using sample datasets shipped with the statistical software aML. I pay special attention to identifying structural coefficients in nonrecursive simultaneous systems.

The supply and demand functions for Turkey’s manufacturing industry: Simultaneous equation systemsTürkiye’nin imalat sanayi ihracat ve ithalatının talep ve arz fonksiyonu: Eşanlı denklem modeli

<p>Foreign trade policies applied to achieve economic growth and structural changes in the economies have an important role. The applications of these policies to determination of the direction, composition, and volume of exports and imports have affected on the price and income elasticities of exported and imported goods. Therefore, the export and the import policies must be analyzed with regards to the price and income elasticities. Considering the studies done so far, econometric analysis of supply and demand functions of export and import are generally seen analyzed based on a single equation model. Also simultaneous relationship between the supply and demand is mostly ignored. For this reason, the major aim of this study is to examine the simultaneous relationship between the supply and demand functions of export and import of manufacturing industry by using Two Stage Least Squares Method. According to results of estimation income and price elasticities for supply and demand of import are found compatible with the theory. Both in export and import demand equation of manufacturing, income and price elasticities are found positive and negative respectively. And also export and import supply elasticities for manufacturing are compatible with the theoretical expectations.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Özet</strong></p><p><strong></strong>Ekonominin büyümesi ve yapısal değişiminde, dış ticaret politikalarının önemli bir yeri vardır. İhracat ve ithalatın yönü, hacmi ve kompozisyonunu belirlemek amacıyla alınan kararlar, malların fiyat ve gelir esnekliklerine etkide bulunmaktadır. Bu nedenle bir ülkenin ihracat ve ithalat rejimi incelenirken, fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri de dikkate alınmalıdır. Bugüne kadar yapılan çalışmalar gözden geçirildiğinde, genellikle ihracat ve ithalat arz ve talep fonksiyonlarının ekonometrik analizinin tek denklemli model temel alınarak incelendiği görülmektedir. İhracat arz ve talep fonksiyonları arasındaki eşanlı gelir ve fiyat ilişkisi çoğunlukla göz ardı edilmektedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmanın temel amacı; ihracat arz ve ithalat talep fonksiyonları arasındaki eşanlılık ilişkisini imalat sanayi özelinde, eşanlı denklem sistemlerinden iki aşamalı en küçük kareler yöntemi kullanarak incelemektir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, imalat sanayi ithalat arz ve talebine ait gelir ve fiyat esneklikleri ile imalat sanayi ihracat talebine ait gelir ve fiyat esnekliği ve ihracat arz denklemine ait gelir ve fiyat esnekliklerinin işareti teoriyle uyumlu bulunmuştur. </p>