China political stability will endure growth slowdown

Significance Headline growth was 6.7% for the third successive quarter -- neatly within the target range of 6.5-7.0%. However, the rate has not risen in any quarter since the last peak of 7.2% in the final quarter of 2014. Well into the 2010s, it was still widely claimed that growth of at least 8.0% was necessary to prevent widespread unemployment that could lead to serious social and political unrest. Growth has fallen short of this since late 2012, but the anticipated crisis has not arrived. Yet such concerns persist, albeit with a lower 'danger line'. Impacts Repression and anti-corruption operations risk sowing seeds of instability that would not otherwise be there. Political risks arising from the economy will increase in the near future as state-sector and military layoffs get properly underway. There is no sign that the state's repressive capabilities are set to weaken.

The UK Economy

The UK economy entered 1992 having experienced one of the largest falls in the volume of domestically produced output during a single calendar year in the post-war period, with output likely to have fallen by close to 2.5 per cent in 1991. However the pace of the decline has begun to moderate in recent months, with activity in the second half of the year around 2 per cent lower than a year earlier. With oil production having recovered since the summer, it seems likely that onshore activity declined for the sixth successive quarter in the final three months of 1991.