Emergency medical admissions and COVID-19: impact on 30-day mortality and hospital length of stay

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has put considerable strain on healthcare systems. Aim To investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on 30-day in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS) and resource utilization in acute medical care. Methods We compared emergency medical admissions to a single secondary care centre during 2020 to the preceding 18 years (2002–2019). We investigated 30-day in-hospital mortality with a multiple variable logistic regression model. Utilization of procedures/services was related to LOS with zero truncated Poisson regression. Results There were 132,715 admissions in 67,185 patients over the 19-year study. There was a linear reduction in 30-day in-hospital mortality over time; over the most recent 5 years (2016–2020), there was a relative risk reduction of 36%, from 7.9 to 4.3% with a number needed to treat of 27.7. Emergency medical admissions increased 18.8% to 10,452 in 2020 with COVID-19 admissions representing 3.5%. 18.6% of COVID-19 cases required ICU admission with a median stay of 10.1 days (IQR 3.8, 16.0). COVID-19 was a significant univariate predictor of 30-day in-hospital mortality, 18.5% (95%CI: 13.9, 23.1) vs. 3.0% (95%CI: 2.7, 3.4)—OR 7.3 (95%CI: 5.3, 10.1). ICU admission was the dominant outcome predictor—OR 12.4 (95%CI: 7.7, 20.1). COVID-19 mortality in the last third of 2020 improved—OR 0.64 (95%CI: 0.47, 0.86). Hospital LOS and resource utilization were increased. Conclusion A diagnosis of COVID-19 was associated with significantly increased mortality and LOS but represented only 3.5% of admissions and did not attenuate the established temporal decline in overall in-hospital mortality.

A Cross-Sectional Study Investigating the Relationship Between Alexithymia and Suicide, Violence, and Dual Harm in Male Prisoners

Background: Suicide and violence are common within male prisoners. One suggested risk factor for both behaviors is alexithymia. Alexithymia describes a deficit in identifying and describing feelings and is also related to externally oriented thinking. This study aimed to explore the relationship between alexithymia, suicide, violence and dual harm in male prisoners.Methods: Eighty male prisoners were recruited from three prisons. Participants were asked to complete a battery of questionnaires including measures of alexithymia (TAS-20), suicide ideation (ASIQ), suicide behavior, violence ideation (SIV), violence behavior, depression (BDI-II), hopelessness (BHS), impulsivity (DII) and anger (NAS-PI). Regression analyses and ANOVAS were conducted to assess the association between alexithymia (and its subcomponents) with six outcomes; suicide ideation, suicide behavior, violence ideation, violence behavior, dual harm ideation and dual harm behavior.Results: Alexithymia was a univariate predictor of suicide ideation, though was not a significant predictor when considered in a multivariate model. Alexithymia was a significant multivariate predictor of suicide behavior. Alexithymia was not a significant multivariate predictor of violence ideation or behavior. There were no significant differences in alexithymia or subscales between those with suicide ideation/behavior alone, violence ideation/behavior alone and those with dual harm ideation/behavior.Conclusion: In male prisoners, alexithymia appears an important univariate predictor of suicide and violence, though the current study suggests no significant contribution above other well-known correlates of suicide and violence.

Bilateral Strength Asymmetries and Unilateral Strength Imbalance: Predicting Ankle Injury When Considered With Higher Body Mass in US Special Forcesa

Context Ankle injury is one of the most common conditions in athletics and military activities. Strength asymmetry (SA) and imbalance may represent a risk factor for injury, but past investigations have produced ambiguous conclusions. Perhaps one explanation for this ambiguity is the fact that these authors used univariate models to predict injury. Objective To evaluate the predictive utility of SA and imbalance calculations for ankle injury in univariate and multivariate prediction models. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Laboratory. Patients or Other Participants A total of 140 male US Air Force Special Forces. Main Outcome Measure(s) Baseline testing consisted of body composition, isometric strength, and aerobic and anaerobic capacity. A clinician conducted medical chart reviews 365 days posttesting to document the incidence of ankle injury. Strength asymmetries were calculated based on the equations most prevalent in the literature along with known physiological predictors of injury in the military: age, height, weight, body composition, and aerobic capacity. Simple logistic regression was conducted using each predictor, and backward stepwise logistic regression was conducted with each equation method and the physiological predictors entered initially into the model. Results Strength asymmetry or imbalance or both, as a univariate predictor, was not able to predict ankle injury 365 days posttesting. Body mass (P = .01) and body mass index (P = .01) significantly predicted ankle injury. Strength asymmetry or imbalance or both significantly predicted ankle injury when considered with body mass (P = .002–.008). Conclusions As a univariate predictor, SA did not predict ankle injury. However, SA contributed significantly to predicting ankle injury in a multivariate model using body mass. Interpreting SA and imbalance in the presence of other physiological variables can help elucidate the risk of ankle injury.

Hypomagnesemia and Cause-specific Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients: 5-year follow-up Analysis

Introduction The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the association between serum magnesium (Mg) and mortality, in particular the cause-specific mortality of Mg and other risk factors in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Methods We studied a cohort of 185 HD patients receiving thrice-weekly HD treatment, on a dialysate Mg concentration of 0.5 mmol/L. We stratified 3 patient groups according to the level of Mg: lower (<1.1 mmol/L), intermediate-reference (1.1 to <1.3 mmol/L), and higher (Mg >1.3 mm/L). Results During the 5-year follow-up, 60 patients died, with cardiovascular (CV) disease as the predominant cause (73.3%). Hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause and CV mortality were 2.55 and 2.67 in the lower versus intermediate Mg group, but there was no significant association between the higher and intermediate Mg group. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that Mg <1.1 versus 1.1–1.30 mml/L with HR 2.34, was a significant univariate predictor for increased mortality in addition to the Hb <110 g/L, Alb <40 g/L, C-reactive protein (CRP) ≥10 mg/L and brain natriuretic peptide >1,200 pg/mL However, in the multivariate analysis only CRP ≥10 mg/L with HR 3.89 was a significant predictor of mortality. Subgroup analyses showed that among patients with CRP >10 mg/L, HR for all-cause and CV mortality of the lower versus intermediate Mg group were 1.96 and 2.39, respectively, not reaching significance for the higher versus intermediate Mg group. Conversely, there was no association between Mg level and all-cause and CV mortality within these 3 groups among patients with CRP <10 mg/L. Conclusions Lower serum Mg level was significantly associated with an increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in HD patients, especially in inflamed patients.

Poverty and Obesity as Political Indicators

Obesity in the US is treated as a medical condition, while its socioeconomic roots are all but ignored. Yet obesity was a univariate predictor of voting patterns in the 2016 presidential election at both state and county level. Health indicators, linked to socioeconomic variables, may be the new political force.

Clinical validation of CTC subtype frequency to prognosis OS in mCRPC patients.

302 Background: CellSearch is an FDA cleared assay that enumerates intact CK+, DAPI+, CD45- cells via EpCAM capture. CTC number is prognostic for survival pre- and post- systemic therapy. These cells are a subset of confirmed genomically altered CTC’s in blood. We report the prognostic significance for OS in mCRPC of CTC subtypes not enumerated by CellSearch including apoptotic CTCs, CK- CTCs, small CTCs, and CTC clusters. Methods: 221 blood samples from 179 unique patients were collected from pts about to begin AR directed (n = 150) or taxane (n = 71) therapy for progressive CRPC. Samples were analyzed utilizing the Epic Sciences platform to enumerate traditional (CK+, abnormal morph), apoptotic (CK+, fragmented nuclei), CK- (CK-/abnormal morph), small (CK+, normal morph), and CTC clusters. Patients were followed for up to 2.3 yrs. Paired CellSearch and Epic traditional CTC counts were collected on 173 patient samples. Results: In paired analysis, Epic traditional CTCs were identified in 86% of patients vs. 67% by CellSearch, and any Epic CTC subtype was found in 96% of the patient samples. Increased frequency of any CTC subtype was a univariate predictor of OS (see table). Conclusions: Epic identified CTC subtypes not identified by CellSearch or other technologies that select or sort based upon size or epithelial expression. Cells were detected in 96% of the patient samples and all 5 subtypes were found to be prognostic for survival. The biologic characterization of CTC subtypes as a biomarker of drug sensitivity is ongoing. The increased clinical sensitivity of subtypes and prevalence of CTCs identified on the Epic platform provides a greatly expanded array of clinically relevant biomarkers to develop predictive liquid biopsy signatures in the metastatic setting. [Table: see text]

Difference in the Prognostic Significance of N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide between Cardioembolic and Noncardioembolic Ischemic Strokes

Background and Aim. Because B-type natriuretic peptide is a powerful predictor of heart failure, its capability to predict a fatal outcome in stroke might be limited to the cardioembolic stroke subtype. In this study, we attempt to ascertain the difference in the prognostic value of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) between cardioembolic and noncardioembolic stroke subgroups.Methods. 410 acute stroke patients were included. According to the presence of a cardioembolic source (CES), there were 221 patients with CES and 189 patients without CES. Logistic regression analysis was performed to ascertain the association between NT-proBNP and 6-month mortality/functional outcome in each group.Results. The mean age of our patients was 67.2 years (range, 18–97 years). NT-proBNP was a multivariate independent predictor of mortality in the CES group alone, whereas it was only a univariate predictor of 6-month mortality in the total patient and non-CES groups with its association disappearing in the multivariate model. In addition, it was only a univariate predictor of good functional outcome in all of the groups.Conclusions. Our data suggest that NT-proBNP can more reliably predict 6-month mortality in patients with cardioembolic stroke than in patients with other stroke subtypes.

Multivariate Local Polynomial Regression with Application to Shenzhen Component Index

This study attempts to characterize and predict stock index series in Shenzhen stock market using the concepts of multivariate local polynomial regression. Based on nonlinearity and chaos of the stock index time series, multivariate local polynomial prediction methods and univariate local polynomial prediction method, all of which use the concept of phase space reconstruction according to Takens' Theorem, are considered. To fit the stock index series, the single series changes into bivariate series. To evaluate the results, the multivariate predictor for bivariate time series based on multivariate local polynomial model is compared with univariate predictor with the same Shenzhen stock index data. The numerical results obtained by Shenzhen component index show that the prediction mean squared error of the multivariate predictor is much smaller than the univariate one and is much better than the existed three methods. Even if the last half of the training data are used in the multivariate predictor, the prediction mean squared error is smaller than the univariate predictor. Multivariate local polynomial prediction model for nonsingle time series is a useful tool for stock market price prediction.

Alterations of Chromosome Arms 1p and 19q as Predictors of Survival in Oligodendrogliomas, Astrocytomas, and Mixed Oligoastrocytomas

PURPOSE: A recent report suggests that alterations of chromosome arms 1p and 19q are associated with chemotherapeutic response and overall survival in anaplastic oligodendroglioma patients treated with procarbazine, lomustine, and vincristine chemotherapy. We set out to further clarify the diagnostic and prognostic implications of these alterations in a broader set of diffuse gliomas, including astrocytic neoplasms and low-grade oligodendrogliomas. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) signals from DNA probes mapping to 1p and 19q common deletion regions were enumerated in 162 diffuse gliomas (79 astrocytomas, 52 oligodendrogliomas, and 31 mixed oligoastrocytomas), collected as part of an ongoing prospective investigation of CNS tumors. RESULTS: The oligodendroglial phenotype was highly associated with loss of 1p (P = .0002), loss of 19q (P < .0001), and combined loss of 1p and 19q (P < .0001). Combined loss of 1p and 19q was identified as a univariate predictor of prolonged overall survival among patients with pure oligodendroglioma (log-rank, P = .03) and remained a significant predictor after adjusting for the effects of patient age and tumor grade (P < .01). This favorable association was not evident in patients with astrocytoma or mixed oligoastrocytoma. CONCLUSION: Combined loss of 1p and 19q is a statistically significant predictor of prolonged survival in patients with pure oligodendroglioma, independent of tumor grade. Given the lack of this association in patients with astrocytic neoplasms and the previously demonstrated chemosensitivity of oligodendrogliomas, a combined approach of histologic and genotypic assessment could potentially improve existing strategies for patient stratification and management.