Paediatric overdiagnosis modelled by coronary abnormality trends in Kawasaki disease

ObjectiveCompare trends in coronary artery (CA) abnormality diagnoses to trends in adverse cardiac outcomes among American children with Kawasaki disease (KD) to assess the fit of detection of CA abnormalities to an established model of overdiagnosis.DesignMulticenter retrospective cohort.Setting48 US children’s hospitals in the Paediatric Health Information System database.ParticipantsChildren <18 years receiving care for KD between 2000 and 2014.Main outcome measuresThe main outcomes were rates of CA abnormality diagnoses and adverse cardiac outcomes, measured during a child’s incident KD visit and longitudinally at all subsequent visits to the same hospital, through December 2016. CA abnormalities were considered severe if long-term anticoagulation other than aspirin was prescribed. Trends were tested using mixed effects logistic regression, adjusting for patient demographics.ResultsAmong 17 809 children treated for KD, a CA abnormality was diagnosed in 1435 children (8%), including 1117 considered non-severe and 318 severe. The rate of non-severe CA abnormality diagnoses increased from 45 per 1000 patients with KD in 2000 to 81 per 1000 patients with KD in 2014, representing an adjusted 2.3-fold increased odds (95% CI 1.8 to 3.0) of diagnosis. There was no significant change in diagnoses of severe CA abnormalities. Adverse cardiac outcomes were stable over the study period at 19 per 1000 patients with KD (P=0.24 for trend).ConclusionsThe rising rate of detection of non-severe CA abnormalities accompanied by an unchanging rate of adverse cardiac outcomes among American children with KD fits an overdiagnosis pattern.

Coronary Artery Involvement in Kawasaki Syndrome in Manhattan, New York: Risk Factors and Role of Aspirin

Since January 1980, 110 children having 113 attacks of Kawasaki syndrome were studied. Age at onset was 7 weeks to 12 years (mean 36/12 years, median 29/12 years); 77% were younger than 5 years of age; the male to female ratio was 1.8; racial distribution was 52% white, 19% black, 14% Hispanic, and 16% Asian. Protocol of management consisted of high-dose aspirin (100 mg/kg/d) until afebrile, and then 81 mg every day until free of coronary aneurysm. Two-dimensional echocardiograms were done weekly during the acute stage, at 2 and 6 months after onset, and yearly if a coronary abnormality was detected. At 1 month, 51 coronary arterial abnormalities were present in 25 patients. Risk factors for a coronary abnormality were duration of fever greater than or equal to 2 weeks, level of platelet count, marked elevation of ESR, and age younger than 5 years. No statistically significant difference in incidence of aneurysms was detected between patients on high-dose aspirin and those on medium- or low-dose aspirin.