Sudan’s exchange rate reform opens path to debt relief

Significance The move opens the door to expanded international aid and debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, but at the cost of increased economic pressures over the short term. Impacts Prices for imported goods will rise further, fuelling inflation over the short term and likely prompting new protests. Donor support coupled with an improved trade balance should augment foreign exchange reserves. Further reform challenges await, including improving management of state-owned enterprises and tackling corruption.

Somalia

This paper presents an assessment of Somalia’s eligibility for assistance under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The macroeconomic framework reflects the policy framework underlying the proposed three-year Fund-supported program. The debt relief analysis (DRA) remains largely unchanged, but some of the underlying debt data has been updated to reflect new information from creditors. In addition, this paper presents an assessment of debt management capacity in Somalia and a full Debt Sustainability Analysis under the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries. The DRA reveals that, after traditional debt relief mechanisms are applied, Somalia’s debt burden expressed as the net present value of debt-to-exports ratio is 344.2 percent at the end of December 2018—significantly above the HIPC Initiative threshold. Despite the challenging environment, progress on reform and policy implementation has been good and sustained reforms have translated into economic results. In addition to the coordinated support from the World Bank and the IMF, reforms have been supported by other development partners.

Analyzing the impact of external debt on industrialization : the African franc zone case

This paper uses data from 10 countries of the African franc zone from 1996 to 2017, to gauge the effect of external debt on industrialization in the presence of non-linearity. Our analyzes are done based on two aspects. Firstly, using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), our results show that there is a non-linear relationship between external debt and industrialization in the African franc zone, which depends on the level of the external debt stock, the threshold is $58.91 \%$ of GDP. While before this threshold, external debt has no direct effect on industrialization, after this threshold it is harmful to it. Secondly, an analysis in two periods (1996-2006 and 2007-2017) by the GLS and SUR methods shows that before 2006, the external debt was an asset for industrialization but after, it gave way to domestic credit. Thus, the external debt has become obsolete after reaching the completion point of the HIPC initiative, and would be a danger for the industrialization of the franc zone in the event of excess.

Analyzing the impact of external debt on industrialization : the African franc zone case

This paper uses data from 10 countries of the African franc zone from 1996 to 2017, to gauge the effect of external debt on industrialization in the presence of non-linearity. Our analyzes are done based on two aspects. Firstly, using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), our results show that there is a non-linear relationship between external debt and industrialization in the African franc zone, which depends on the level of the external debt stock, the threshold is $58.91 \%$ of GDP. While before this threshold, external debt has no direct effect on industrialization, after this threshold it is harmful to it. Secondly, an analysis in two periods (1996-2006 and 2007-2017) by the GLS and SUR methods shows that before 2006, the external debt was an asset for industrialization but after, it gave way to domestic credit. Thus, the external debt has become obsolete after reaching the completion point of the HIPC initiative, and would be a danger for the industrialization of the franc zone in the event of excess.

The Effectiveness of Debt Relief: Assessing the Influence of the HIPC Initiative and MDRI on Tanzania’s Health Sector

Debt relief initiatives have been part of the international development sphere since the early 1990s. With the launch of the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative in 1996 and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) in 2005 many countries have been able to successfully qualify for debt relief. Tanzania has been one of the primary beneficiaries of debt relief over the years. While empirical evidence demonstrates that the country’s economic growth has been positively impacted by debt relief initiatives, other aspects of human development need to be analyzed to ensure a comprehensive assessment of the HIPC Initiative and the MDRI. This study compiles Tanzania’s health data into a composite indicator to perform a graphical analysis to compare the trends between health outcomes and external debt. The graphical analysis is contextualized through a qualitative analysis of political, economic and health financing literature from the Bank of Tanzania, UNICEF and USAID. The results indicate that there health outcomes improved throughout the whole study’s time period particularly after the HIPC Initiative. The health financing literature also points to increased development expenditure during this period. Nonetheless, the effects of debt relief seem to diminish in the long-term due to fluctuations in external donors and logistical barriers to budget execution. Tanzania also continues to face socio-economic and geographic disparities in health outcomes and funding. Some of the literature also states that the country’s weak system of checks and balances and the lack of robust institutions could cause opportunistic policy preferences that might not necessarily improve Tanzania’s health outcomes. KEYWORDS: Child Mortality Rate; Debt Relief; External Debt; Heavily Indebted Poor Country Initiative; International Monetary Fund; Life Expectancy; Maternal Mortality Rate; Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative; Official Development Aid; Prevalence of Undernourishment

Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI)—Statistical Update

This report reviews developments in the implementation of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). It also provides updates on debt service and poverty-reducing expenditure by beneficiary countries, as well as on the cost of debt relief, creditor participation rates, and litigation against HIPCs.