The effectiveness of China’s regional carbon market pilots in reducing firm emissions

China has implemented an emission trading system (ETS) to reduce its ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining rapid economic growth. With low carbon prices and infrequent allowance trading, whether China’s ETS is an effective approach for climate mitigation has entered the center of the policy and research debate. Utilizing China’s regional ETS pilots as a quasi-natural experiment, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the effects of ETS on firm carbon emissions and economic outcomes by means of a matched difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The empirical analysis is based on a unique panel dataset of firm tax records in the manufacturing and public utility sectors during 2009 to 2015. We show unambiguous evidence that the regional ETS pilots are effective in reducing firm emissions, leading to a 16.7% reduction in total emissions and a 9.7% reduction in emission intensity. Regulated firms achieve emission abatement through conserving energy consumption and switching to low-carbon fuels. The economic consequences of the ETS are mixed. On one hand, the ETS has a negative impact on employment and capital input; on the other hand, the ETS incentivizes regulated firms to improve productivity. In the aggregate, the ETS does not exhibit statistically significant effects on output and export. We also find that the ETS displays notable heterogeneity across pilots. Mass-based allowance allocation rules, higher carbon prices, and active allowance trading contribute to more pronounced effects in emission abatement.

Optimal MTS and MTO Hybrid Production System for a Single Product Under the Cap-And-Trade Environment

This paper studies the optimal production planning in a hybrid Make-To-Stock (MTS) and Make-To-Order (MTO) production system for a single product under the cap-and-trade environment. The manufacturer aims to minimize the total cost in production, inventory and emissions allowances trading. The decisions include the selection of production mode (pure MTS, pure MTO or hybrid MTS/MTO), the inventory and emissions trading quantity. We derive the optimal solution analytically. We show that the cost of optimal MTO/MTS hybrid production strategy is remarkably less than that of either pure MTO or pure MTS production strategy alone. Compared with the no initial carbon quota and trading environment, there are significant differences in the optimal production decisions under trading environment. When the emissions cost is a source of costs, the manufacturer has to face more costs pressure even if there is no emissions allowance trading. In particular, the results show that the initial emissions allowance determines the optimal production decision and emissions allowance trading decision in cases where the difference between the inventory cost for per unit product and the delayed delivery cost for per unit order is between the minimum and the maximum emissions cost and has no effect on production mode and emissions allowances trading decision in other cases. These conclusions will provide optimal production decision and carbon trading decision for the manufacture under a cap-and-trade environment.

Carbon Pricing Induces Innovation: Evidence from China's Regional Carbon Market Pilots

China has launched seven regional pilots of emission trading scheme (ETS) to limit its carbon emissions. Taking advantage of the variations in the regional ETS pilots across regions and sectors and over time, we employ a difference-in-difference-indifferences (DDD) approach to evaluate the effect of ETS on low-carbon innovation at the firm level. Using patent application data of publicly-listed firms in China between 2003 and 2015, we find that the ETS pilots induced innovation in low-carbon technologies. The more active pilots—measured by carbon price and turnover rate of allowance trading—are associated with more intense low-carbon innovation.