Efficiency of Price Movements in Futures Markets

We study behaviour in the E-mini S&P (ES) commodity futures data market to test for violation of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), and test for market inefficiency. We demonstrate that, on long timescales, a single scaling determines dynamics. ES returns behave in a more general manner than random walks. We find that deviations from the EMH, and the associated heavy-tailed distributions, are more common than expected, and price returns can be fitted with an alpha-stable Lévy distribution. Our results indicate that while the ES futures market operates close to the state predicted by the EMH, the observed transient deviations from this state fail to have a statistical origin consistent with a purely random geometric Brownian motion, and are better described by the fractal market hypothesis.

A scientometric analysis of affordance research in the field of interaction design based on CiteSpace

A method of scientometrics analysis was adopted in this study to objectively visualize the research status quo, track the emerging trends and understand the intellectual structure of affordance research in the field of interaction design with 726 documents published in the ISI Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) database from 1995-2020. The results identified that annual trends of the papers will continue to grow. USA plays a significant role and is a pioneer in the field. There is no leading institution or author with high output or high influence. The study has formed 4 hot research topic: Theoretical study, Perception-level study, Behaviour-level study and Experience-level study. According to the references co-citation network, we can know that affordance research in the field of interaction design has produced a number of classic literature.

The Impact of Personality Dimensions on Study Behaviour and Study Attitudes of Online Students

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of the Big Five personality dimensions on study attitudes and study behaviour of online students. Based on theoretical background, we proposed and tested the model, which assumes significant direct impact of personality dimensions on study attitudes and study behaviour and a bi-directional relationship between study attitudes and study behaviour. Partial analyses of the interrelationships proposed in the model showed that personality dimensions exert a more powerful direct impact on study behaviour than on study attitudes, with conscientiousness being the strongest predictor of study behaviour. When personality dimensions are controlled, there is a significant moderate interrelationship between study behaviour and study attitudes. This indicates that personality dimensions may influence study attitudes indirectly via study behaviour. The results of structural equation modelling (SEM) revealed insufficient empirical evidence to support the model as a whole, which questions the validity of the proposed model.

Not by Behaviour Alone: In Defence of Self-Reports and ‘Finger Movements’

We agree that it is important to study behaviour in psychology but warn against putting behaviour on a scientific pedestal. We argue that this would be problematic for at least three reasons. First, behaviour should not be seen as disconnected from thoughts and feelings; moreover, quarantining different domains of responses does not help to explain human psychology comprehensively. Second, because behaviour hardly ever speaks for itself, it is essential to gather other responses from participants (including self-reports and “finger movement responses”) to understand what their behaviour really means. Finally, and most importantly, we observe that the main response to the crisis in social psychology has consisted of calls to change our empirical practices. Here this call takes the form of arguing for studying one particular dependent variable: behaviour. Even though we agree that there is value in measuring behaviour, promoting such practices is not going to be a silver bullet that overcomes the key challenges that social psychology as a discipline is currently facing. To do that, a more fruitful avenue would be to focus on the theory that needs to underpin and inform that empirical work. Indeed, without a proper theoretical framework to guide the study of behaviour, developing a “science of behaviour” is in our view rather futile.

mCME project V.2.0: randomised controlled trial of a revised SMS-based continuing medical education intervention among HIV clinicians in Vietnam

BackgroundContinuing medical education (CME) is indispensable, but costs are a barrier. We tested the effectiveness of a novel mHealth intervention (mCME V.2.0) promoting CME among Vietnamese HIV clinicians.MethodsWe enrolled HIV clinicians from three provinces near Hanoi. The 6-month intervention consisted of (1) daily short message service multiple-choice quiz questions, (2) daily linked readings, (3) links to online CME courses and (4) feedback messages describing the performance of the participant relative to the group. Control participants had equal access to the online CME courses. Our primary endpoint was utilisation of the online CME courses; secondary endpoints were self-study behaviour, performance on a standardised medical exam and job satisfaction.ResultsFrom 121 total HIV clinicians in the three provinces, 106 (87.6%) enrolled, and 48/53 intervention (90%) and 47/53 control (89%) participants completed the endline evaluations. Compared with controls, intervention participants were more likely to use the CME courses (risk ratio (RR) 2.3, 95% CI 1.4 to 3.8, accounting for 83% of course use (P<0.001)). Intervention participants increased self-study behaviours over controls in terms of use of medical textbooks (P<0.01), consulting with colleagues (P<0.01), searching on the internet (P<0.001), using specialist websites (P=0.02), consulting the Vietnam HIV/AIDS treatment guidelines (P=0.02) and searching the scientific literature (P=0.09). Intervention participants outperformed controls on the exam (+23% vs +12% score gains, P=0.05) and had higher job satisfaction.ConclusionThe mCME V.2.0 intervention improved self-study behaviour, medical knowledge and job satisfaction. This approach has potential for expansion in Vietnam and similar settings.Trial registration numberNCT02381743.