Norms, Incentives, or Deadlines? Explaining Norway’s Noncompliance with the Gothenburg Protocol

Norway, previously an international frontrunner concerning reductions of transboundary air pollution, fell far short of its 2010 target for nitrogen oxides (NO x) under the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol. In this article I show that leading international compliance theories cannot explain much of this noncompliance. While little evidence supports the management school’s explanations, Norwegian policies are also inconsistent with the enforcement school. Albeit too late to meet the deadline, Norway imposed a NO x tax in 2007. Moreover, the resulting emissions reductions were deeper than in a business-as-usual scenario, despite no international enforcement. That the NO x tax was imposed only after an environmentalist party gained considerable influence over NO x policies in 2005 supports an office-incumbent hypothesis. However, as emissions also declined significantly in many other European countries after 2005, the explanation is likely structural. One possibility is the deadline-pressure hypothesis: As the deadline approached, decision-makers across Northern and Western Europe considered emissions reductions to be more urgent than before.

A model study on changes of European and Swiss particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen deposition between 1990 and 2020 due to the revised Gothenburg protocol

We report a study of changes in air quality due to emission reductions using the chemical transport model CAMx. The model domain includes all of Europe with a nested domain over Switzerland. The model simulations were performed with emissions for 1990 (the reference year for the Gothenburg Protocol), 2005 (the reference year for the revised Gothenburg Protocol), 2006 (for model validation) and 2020 (the target year for the revised Gothenburg Protocol) using three emission scenarios prepared by IIASA/GAINS. Changes in ozone, particulate matter and nitrogen deposition are the central theme of the study. The modelled relative changes in the annual average PM2.5 concentrations between 1990 and 2005 look reasonable based on various PM10 and PM2.5 observations in the past. The results obtained in this study suggest that annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 decreased by about 20–50% in Europe. Simulations using the baseline scenario (BL 2020) suggest that PM2.5 concentrations in 2020 will be about 30% lower than those in 2005. The largest predicted decrease in PM2.5, based on the MTFR (maximum technically feasible reduction) scenario, was about 60% and was located mainly in the eastern part of Europe. In the case of ozone, both model results and measurements show an increase in the mean ozone mixing ratios between 1990 and 2005. The observations, however, suggest a larger increase, indicating the importance of background ozone levels. Although emission reductions caused a decrease in peak ozone values, average ozone levels in polluted regions increased due to reduced titration with nitric oxide (NO). This caused a change in the frequency distribution of ozone. Model simulations using emission scenarios for 2020 suggest that annual average ozone mixing ratios will continue to increase. Changes in the levels of the damage indicators AOT40 for forests and SOMO35 are reported as well. The model results suggest that nitrogen deposition has decreased by 10–30% in the eastern part of Europe since 1990, while it has increased by about 20% in the Iberian Peninsula. The decrease is mainly due to the deposition of oxidized nitrogen species, whereas deposition of reduced nitrogen compounds increased. In Switzerland, nitrogen deposition is larger in the northern part of the Alps, where ammonia emissions are the highest. Applying the baseline scenario, we found that the deposition of oxidized nitrogen compounds will have decreased by a further 40% by 2020, whereas deposition of reduced species will continue to increase. This will lead to a 10–20% decrease in the total nitrogen deposition in most of the model domain, with a 10% increase in the eastern part of Europe.

A model study on changes of European and Swiss particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen deposition between 1990 and 2020 due to the revised Gothenburg protocol

We report a study of changes in air quality due to emission reductions using the chemical transport model CAMx. The model domain includes all of Europe with a nested domain over Switzerland. The model simulations were performed for 1990 (the reference year for the Gothenburg Protocol), 2005 (the reference year for the revised Gothenburg Protocol), 2006 (for model validation) and 2020 (the target year for the revised Gothenburg Protocol) using three emission scenarios prepared by IIASA/GAINS. Changes in ozone, particulate matter and nitrogen deposition are the central theme of the study. The relative changes in the annual average PM2.5 concentrations between 1990 and 2005 were reproduced very well. Both model results and observations show that annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 decreased by about 20–50% in Europe. Simulations using the baseline scenario (BL 2020) suggest that PM2.5 concentrations in 2020 will be about 30% lower than those in 2005. The largest predicted decrease in PM2.5, based on the MTFR (Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction) scenario, was about 60% and was located mainly in the eastern part of Europe. In the case of ozone, both model results and measurements show an increase in the mean ozone mixing ratios between 1990 and 2005. The observations, however, suggest a larger increase, indicating the importance of background ozone levels. Although emission reductions caused a decrease in peak ozone values, ozone levels in polluted regions increased due to reduced titration with nitric oxide (NO). This caused a change in the frequency distribution of ozone. Model simulations using emission scenarios for 2020 suggest that annual average ozone mixing ratios will continue to increase. Changes in the levels of the damage indicators AOT40 for forests and SOMO35 are reported as well. The model results suggest that nitrogen deposition decreased by 10–30% in the eastern part of Europe since 1990, while it increased by about 20% in the Iberian Peninsula. The decrease is mainly due to the deposition of oxidized nitrogen species, whereas deposition of reduced nitrogen compounds increased. In Switzerland, nitrogen deposition is larger in the northern part of the Alps where ammonia emissions are the highest. Applying the baseline scenario, we found that the deposition of oxidized nitrogen compounds will have decreased by a further 40% by 2020, whereas deposition of reduced species will continue to increase. This will lead to a 10–20% decrease in the total nitrogen deposition in most of the model domain, with a 10% increase in the eastern part of Europe.

Possibility of reduction of ammonia emissions from manure storage piles

According to the Gothenburg Protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone ammonia emissions need to be reduced by 40% in manure storage systems. An abatement of ammonia emissions, suggested in this paper, is based on application of the biotechnological agent Amalgerol. Ammonia emissions from farmyard manure storage piles from broiler and pig breeding were compared in order to verify the reducing potential of the applied biotechnological agent. The experiments carried out under operating conditions proved a positive influence of biotechnological agents on ammonia emissions reduction – decrease in the emissions from the broiler storage pile represented 41.16% and from the pig storage pile 35.85%, both in comparison with reference storage piles.

Twenty-five years of continuous sulphur dioxide emission reduction in Europe

During the last twenty-five years European emission data have been compiled and reported under the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) as part of the work under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). This paper presents emission trends of SO2 reported to EMEP and validated within the programme for the period 1980–2004. These European anthropogenic sulphur emissions have been steadily decreasing over the last twenty-five years, amounting from about 55 Tg SO2 in 1980 to 15 Tg SO2 in 2004. The uncertainty in sulphur emission estimates for individual countries and years are documented to range between 3% and 25%. The relative contribution of European emissions to global anthropogenic sulphur emissions has been halved during this period. Based on annual emission reports from European countries, three emission reduction regimes have been identified. The period 1980–1989 is characterized by low annual emission reductions (below 5% reduction per year and 20% for the whole period) and is dominated by emission reductions in Western Europe. The period 1990–1999 is characterised by high annual emission reductions (up to 11% reduction per year and 54% for the whole period), most pronounced in Central and Eastern Europe. The annual emission reductions in the period 2000–2004 are medium to low (below 6% reduction per year and 17% for the whole period) and reflect the unified Europe, with equally large reductions in both East and West. The sulphur emission reduction has been largest in the sector Combustion in energy and transformation industries, but substantial decreases are also seen in the Non-industrial combustion plants together with the sectors Industrial combustion and Industrial production processes. The majority of European countries have reduced their emissions by more than 60% between 1990 and 2004, and one quarter have already achieved sulphur emission reductions higher than 80%. At European level, the total sulphur target for 2010 set in the Gothenburg Protocol (16 Tg) has apparently already been met by 2004. However, still half of the Parties to the Gothenburg Protocol have to reduce further their sulphur emissions in order to attain their individual country total emission targets for 2010. It is also noteworthy that, contrasting the Gothenburg Protocol requirements, a growing number of countries have recently been reporting increasing sulphur emissions, while others report only minor further decreases. The emission trends presented here are supported by different studies of air concentrations and depositions carried out within and outside the framework of the LRTAP Convention.

Twenty-five years of continuous sulphur dioxide emission reduction in Europe

During the last twenty-five years European emission data have been compiled and reported under the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) as part of the work under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). This paper presents emission trends of SO2 reported to EMEP and validated within the programme for the period 1980–2004. These European anthropogenic sulphur emissions have been steadily decreasing over the last twenty-five years, amounting from about 55 Tg SO2 in 1980 to 15 Tg SO2 in 2004. The uncertainty in sulphur emission estimates for individual countries and years are documented to range between 3% and 25%. The relative contribution of European emissions to global anthropogenic sulphur emissions has been halved during this period. Based on annual emission reports from European countries, three emission reduction regimes have been identified. The period 1980–1989 is characterized by low annual emission reductions (below 5% reduction per year and 20% for the whole period) and is dominated by emission reductions in Western Europe. The period 1990–1999 is characterised by high annual emission reductions (up to 11% reduction per year and 54% for the whole period), most pronounced in Central and Eastern Europe. The annual emission reductions in the period 2000–2004 are medium to low and reflect the unified Europe, with equally large reductions in both East and West. The sulphur emission reduction has been largest in the sector Combustion in energy and transformation industries, but substantial decreases are also seen in the Non-industrial combustion plants together with the sectors Industrial Combustion and Industrial Production Processes. The majority of European countries have reduced their emissions by more than 60% between 1990 and 2004, and one quarter have already achieved sulphur emission reductions higher than 80%. At European level, the total sulphur target for 2010 set in the Gothenburg Protocol (16 Tg) has apparently already been met by 2004. However, still half of the Parties to the Gothenburg Protocol have to reduce further their sulphur emissions in order to attain their individual country total emission targets for 2010. It is also noteworthy that, contrasting the Gothenburg Protocol requirements, a growing number of countries have recently been reporting increasing sulphur emissions, while others report only minor further decreases. The emission trends presented here are supported by different studies of air concentrations and depositions carried out within and outside the framework of the LRTAP Convention.