Anticipating the hospital burden of future COVID-19 epidemic waves

Forecasting SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trends with confidence more than a few weeks ahead is almost impossible as these entirely depend on political decisions. We address this problem by investigating the consequences for the health system of an epidemic wave of a given size. This approach yields semi-quantitative results that depend on the proportion of the population already infected and vaccinated. We introduce the COVimpact software, which allows users to visualise estimated numbers of ICU admissions, deaths, and infections stratified by age class at the French departmental, regional, or national level caused by the wave. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by showing that for France, even with a 95% vaccination coverage, the current vaccine efficiency against the delta variant would make a large epidemic wave infecting 25% of the population difficult to sustain for the current hospital bed occupancy capacity. Overall, using the final epidemic wave size and ignoring detailed epidemiological dynamics yields valuable and practical insights to optimise public health response to epidemics.

Determination of non!contact deformation of a material under the orbital action of an indenter

The influence of kinematic loading schemes on the formation of an elastoplastic wave under the orbital action of an indenter is considered. A mathematical model of hardening is presented, which determines the size and stressstrain state of the wave. The loading parameters influencing the wave size are determined. Keywords: kinematic diagram, orbital loading, deforming element, elastoplastic deformation, non-contact deformation, elastoplastic wave [email protected]

Optimizing replenishment base on order structure in crane & shuttle based storage and retrieval system

A new automatic warehouse sorting system, the crane & shuttle based storage and retrieval system (C&SBS/RS), is proposed in this paper. In C&SBS/RS, the crane-based storage and retrieval system (CBS/RS) in the pallet storage area provides the pallets picking, the shuttle-based storage and retrieval system (SBS/RS) in the tote storage area handles the cases and items picking. When the inventory in SBS/RS is lower than safety stock, SBS/RS initiates replenishment transaction. Besides, the order matrix is proposed to study order structure parameters, such as the order density, the order strength, the wave size and so on. Moreover, this paper analyzes the influence of order structure on the replenishment with four evaluation parameters, e.g., the workload of CBS/RS and SBS/RS, the number of used storage position in SBS/RS, the replenishment time. Numerical experiments are carried out to analysis the impact of the wave size and the proportion of high turnover SKU on those four evaluation parameters under multiple order structure, which is to help warehouse operation manager decide replenishment strategy parameters.

Using Ranking Data to Understand International Surfers' Travel Motivations

Some emerging destinations are looking to surf tourism as a development strategy. Surf tourism stakeholders can better govern surf tourism development if they know more about the surf travelers themselves. To better understand the behavior of surf tourists, this research uses ranked data to explore items in three major categories: 1) surf-related travel attributes; 2) destination attributes; and 3) general experience attributes. Findings suggested that swell consistency and wave size, accommodation, and escapism were among the most popular items, while aspects such as surf photography, nightlife, and access to competitions were among the least popular. These preliminary findings may assist emerging destinations in their surf tourism development plans as well as identify important areas for future research.

TRANSTHORACIC ECHOCARDIOGRAPHY AND DEPENDENCE OF ELECTROCARDIOGRAPHIC INDICATORS ON PHYSICAL ACTIVITY TYPE IN LITHUANIAN ATHLETES

Background. Since athletes have a higher risk to experience cardiovascular system complications, this gives us an important reason for further investigation. Early detection of pathological hypertrophy of the left ventricle may exclude athletes from sports activities and prevent complications and possible death. Methods. In our study, 75 patients underwent transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). The values of left ventricle were measured: left ventricle end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD), interventricular septum thickness in diastole (IVSTd), LV posterior wall thickness in diastole (LVPWTd), LV mass (LVM), LV mass index (LVMI), LV end-diastolic diameter index (LVEDDI). Standard 12-lead ECG was recorded at 25 mm/s and with standard calibration of 10 mm/ mV from a patient in a supine position. Results. When we compared results of LVH according to ECG and TTE, ECG showed higher count of athletes with marginal changes and less LVH compared to TTE in female endurance and male athletes. Moreover, moderate positive correlation between LV mass and R wave size (V5) (r = .617) was found in female endurance athletes. Furthermore, high positive correlation between LVEDD and QRS interval length (r = .911) was found in female strength athletes. Also, moderate negative correlation (r = –.603) between heart electrical axis and R wave size (V5) was found in male endurance athletes. Conclusions. Knowledge of the ECG changes associated with the type and intensity of exercise, race, age and gender can lower the traditionally high number of false positives, thus reducing unnecessary investigations. In our study, ECG showed higher count of athletes with marginal changes and less LVH compared to TTE in women endurance, men strength and endurance groups.