The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program: Time for Improvements

The 1996 welfare reforms imposed major changes on the nation’s means-tested benefits, including a requirement that states place at least half of their cash welfare caseload in work or related activities. Congress also increased both cash and in-kind subsidies for low-income working families. Between the mid-1990s and 2000, work and wages among low-income women increased and poverty declined. The recessions of 2001 and 2007–2009 caused rising employment to falter, but after 2014, women’s employment rose again, and poverty declined. The impacts of welfare reform on these outcomes have been disputed, with many on the Left charging that states have used welfare funds inappropriately and many on the Right arguing that welfare reform played a major role in the improvements in work, wages, and poverty. We review reforms that have been proposed by one or both parties in recent years, including focusing spending on benefits and work. We conclude with lessons of these reform experiences for future reforms of entitlement programs.

Selecting Social Indicators to Forecast Child Welfare Caseload

The purpose of this study is to identify an optimum number of social indicators that provide maximum predictability of child welfare caseloads. The analysis is based on cross-sectional data pooled from the 1996 and 2001 censuses. The unit of analysis is the census division. From an exhaustive review of literature on social indicators and child welfare, we identified ten risk factors. Then, we identified social indicators that were statistically associated with the risk factors. After measuring the statistical association between social indictors with child welfare caseload, this study develops regression models to select and narrow down a list of social indicators with the highest predictability.