Severe Prenatal Shocks and Adolescent Health: Evidence from the Dutch Hunger Winter

This paper investigates impacts, mechanisms and selection effects of prenatal exposure to multiple shocks, by exploiting the unique natural experiment of the Dutch Hunger Winter. At the end of World War II, a famine occurred abruptly in the Western Netherlands (November 1944 - May 1945), pushing the previously and subsequently well-nourished Dutch population to the brink of starvation. We link high-quality military recruits data with objective health measurements for the cohorts born in the years surrounding WWII with newly digitised historical records on calories and nutrient composition of the war rations, daily temperature, and warfare deaths. Using difference-in-differences and triple differences research designs, we show that the cohorts exposed to the Dutch Hunger Winter since early gestation have a higher Body Mass Index and an increased probability of being overweight at age 18, and that this effect is partly accounted for by warfare exposure and a reduction in energy-adjusted protein intake. Moreover, we account for selective mortality using a copula-based approach and newly-digitised data on survival rates, and find evidence of both selection and scarring effects. These results emphasise the complexity of the mechanisms at play in studying the consequences of early conditions.

Slow VT treatment in a contemporary population of primary prevention ICD recipients

Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is an effective therapy for sudden cardiac death (SCD). 2015 HRS/EHRA/APHRS/SOLAECE expert consensus document suggests long VT detection, above 185 bpm, as optimal ICD programming to reduce unnecessary therapies in primary prevention (PP). Purpose The aim of our study is to evaluate incidence, safety and efficacy of ICD treatment for VT arrhythmias below 185 bpm, in a contemporary population of PP ICD recipients with long detection intervals (LDI), morphological discrimination algorithm and antitachycardia pacing therapies (ATP) before shock. Methods We conducted a single centre retrospective study enrolling 236 patients implanted with a primary-prevention indication from January 2013 to June 2019. Patients were implanted with single or dual chamber single-lead transvenous ICD. All patients had standard device setting with long (at least 20 s in VT and 7 s in VF) VT/VF detection above 150 bpm and therapies starting from 171 with up to 5 ATP and multiple shocks. PainFREE-like bursts and Schaumann-like ramps ATP were always set in VT zone. Of each patient we collected a detailed report of up to five appropriate events and three inappropriate events. Arrhythmia diagnosis was confirmed from 3 independent expert physicians. Date of the event, cycle length, type of morphology (polymorphic or monomorphic), therapies with their effect were collected. Results During a mean follow-up of 42 months, 47 (20 %) and 18 (8%) patients had at least one appropriate and inappropriate activation, respectively. The detailed-events analysis shows that 16 (7%) patients had 38 (30%) appropriate events with rate <188 bpm. At these rate ATP were 97% effective. 14 (38%) of inappropriate activations were caused by arrythmias with ventricular rate below 188 bpm and half of these received a shock; 30% of inappropriate shocks were due to arrhythmia with rate <188 bpm. 73% of treated events, with rate <188 bpm, were appropriate. Only 5.6% (n = 10) of ATP attempts cause arrhythmia acceleration. Conclusions One third of detected arrhythmias had a rate below 188 bpm and 73% were true VT. In this slow VT zone, ATP had a high success rate with low percentage of acceleration.

Nigeria

The Nigerian economy is at a critical juncture. A weak pre-crisis economy characterized by falling per capita income, double-digit inflation, significant governance vulnerabilities and limited buffers, is grappling with multiple shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. Real output is projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2020, with a weak recovery likely to keep per capita income stagnant and no higher than the 2010 level in the medium term. Policy adjustment and reforms are urgently needed to navigate this crisis and change the long-running lackluster course.

Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns

This paper develops a methodology to test structural asset pricing models based on their implications for the multiperiod risk-return trade-off. A new measure, the term structure of risk, captures the sensitivities of multiperiod expected returns to structural shocks. The level and slope of the term structure of risk can indicate misspecification in equilibrium models. I evaluate the performance of asset pricing models with long-run risk, consumption disasters, and variance shocks. I find that only a model with multiple shocks in the variance of consumption growth is consistent with the propagation of and compensation for risk in the aggregate stock market.

Cuba's monetary reform will create multiple shocks

Significance The long-postponed move is essential but will send shockwaves through the economy. Inflation and currency flight will soar. Salary and pension hikes will be quickly eaten up by price rises and companies will fail without new subsidies. Impacts Devaluation may spur far-reaching reforms of inefficient state companies, but Havana has disclosed few details of how that might happen. The new CUP24:USD1 exchange rate will be unsustainable; the black-market rate has already reached CUP50:USD1. Inflation fears will trigger a rush to buy goods, increasing scarcity, hoarding and black-market activity. The disappearance of the CUC will not end monetary dualism: the recently expanded dollar shops will become a parallel monetary circuit.

Strengths and weaknesses of the 100 Resilient Cities Initiative in Southern Europe: Rome and Athens’ experiences

Cities are nowadays faced with an unprecedented crisis, due above all to the impacts of climate change and the increasing social inequalities, which require innovative approaches and more effective tools. Resilience is widely interpreted as a key principle to re-frame urban policies, paving the way to cross-sectoral urban strategies capable of better coping with contemporary challenges. This contribution focuses in particular on the 100 Resilient Cities (100RC) Initiative, launched by the Rockefeller Foundation and addressed to support cities all over the world in developing and implementing strategies capable of increasing urban resilience in the face of multiple shocks and stresses, including climate change. In detail, based on the comparative analysis of two case studies, Rome and Athens, this paper aims at providing insights on the main strengths and weaknesses of cities’ resilience-building processes developed under the 100RC Initiative and at deeply analyzing the contribution of the delivered Resilience Strategies to the improvement of cities’ capacities to cope with contemporary challenges and above all with the increasing impacts of climate change.