Revisiting the long-term decreasing trend of atmospheric electric potential gradient measured at Nagycenk, Hungary, Central Europe

In 2003, a decreasing trend was reported in the long-term (1962–2001) fair weather atmospheric electric potential gradient (PG) measured in the Széchenyi István Geophysical Observatory (NCK; 47∘38′ N, 16∘43′ E), Hungary, Central Europe. The origin of this reduction has been the subject of a long-standing debate, due to a group of trees near the measurement site which reached significant height since the measurements have started. Those trees have contributed to the lowering of the ambient vertical electric field due to their electrostatic shielding effect. In the present study, we attempt to reconstruct the true long-term variation of the vertical atmospheric electric field at NCK. The time-dependent shielding effect of trees at the measurement site was calculated to remove the corresponding bias from the recorded time series. A numerical model based on electrostatic theory was set up to take into account the electrostatic shielding of the local environment. The validity of the model was verified by on-site measurement campaigns. The changing height of the trees between 1962 and 2017 was derived from national-average age–height diagrams for each year. Modelling the time-dependent electrical shielding effect of the trees at NCK revealed that local effects played a pivotal role in the long-term decrease. The results suggest that earlier attempts could not quantify the shielding effect of the trees at NCK accurately. In this work it is found that the reconstructed PG time series at NCK exhibits an increase between 1962 and 1997 followed by a decaying trend since 1997. It is pointed out that long-term variation in summertime and wintertime PG averages should be analysed separately as these may contribute to trends in the annual mean values rather differently.

Investigating the long-term variation of atmospheric electric potential gradient at Nagycenk, Hungary, Central Europe

<p><span><span>The atmospheric electric potential gradient (PG, the reverse of the atmospheric vertical electric field) is commonly measured near the ground. The PG plays a pivotal role in studying the global electric circuit (GEC) which comprises all large scale quasi-static electrical processes occurring in between the Earth's surface and the lower ionosphere [1]. Therefore, long-term, coherent PG measurements are of high importance in atmospheric electricity research. Nevertheless, it is a challenging task to use PG as a reliable diagnostic tool for investigating global changes in Earth’s electromagnetic environment because of its high variability. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span><span>There are few PG datasets around the globe which are long enough and have been recorded continuously for decades. One of the datasets that fulfil these requirements has been recorded in the Széchenyi István Geophysical Observatory, Nagycenk, Hungary, Central Europe (NCK, </span></span><span>47°38’ N, 16°43’ E</span><span><span>). A necessary correction of the recorded PG time series due to the time-dependent shielding effect of nearby trees at NCK was introduced earlier [2,3]. In this study, the corrected long-term (1962-2009) variation of PG at NCK is exhibited and discussed.</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span><span>In the present study, the behaviour of annual minima, maxima, means, and summer and winter means of the PG at NCK are investigated. As these PG time-series exhibited quite different characteristics, the joint analysis of these data is required. The long-term variation of these PG time series can be divided into three periods: the first period (1962-1985) is characterized by a rather steep increase and is mostly driven by the wintertime data. The increase continues with a moderate magnitude and less significantly in the second period (1986-1997) where summertime data dominate the change, whereas there is a pronounced reduction of the PG in the third period (1997-2009) with almost equal magnitude in both the winter- and summertime records. These observed trends are confirmed by independent PG observations made at other measuring sites (e.g., the Swider Observatory, Poland).</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span><span>The PG at NCK is generally greater in winter than in summer, which is a well-known phenomenon at northern hemisphere continental stations [4]. The annual minima, however, do not comply with this trend in every year. The month with the lowest average PG is in late spring (May) in most years of the examined epoch at NCK but minimum values occur in autumn and winter months as well.</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span><span>References:</span></span></p><p><span><span>[1] Rycroft, M. J., Israelsson, S., and Price, C.: The global atmospheric electric circuit, solar activity and climate change, J. Atmos. Sol-Terr. Phy., 62, 1563–1576, 2000.</span></span></p><p><span><span>[2] Buzás, A., Barta, V., Steinbach, P., and Bór, J.: Impact of local environmental conditions on atmospheric electrical potential gradient measurements, Geophysical Research Abstracts, 19, EGU2017-1193-1, 2017.</span></span></p><p><span><span>[3] Buzás, A., Horváth, T., Barta, V., and Bór, J.: Revisiting the decreasing trend of atmospheric electrical potential gradient measured in Central Europe at Nagycenk, Hungary, Geophysical Research Abstracts, 20, EGU2018-6723, 2018.</span></span></p><p><span><span>[4] Chalmers, J. A.: Atmospheric Electricity, second edition, Pergamon Press, London, pp. 168-169 1967.</span></span></p>

Revisiting the long-term decreasing trend of atmospheric electric potential gradient measured at Nagycenk, Hungary, Central Europe

In 2003, a decreasing trend has been reported in the long-term (1962–2001) fair weather atmospheric electric potential gradient (PG) measured in the Széchenyi István Geophysical Observatory (NCK, 47°38' N, 16°43' E), Hungary, Central Europe. The origin of this reduction has been the subject of a long-standing debate, due to a group of trees near the measurement site which reached significant height since the measurements of PG have started. Those trees have contributed to the lowering of the ambient vertical electric field due to their electrostatic shielding effect. In the present study, we attempt to reconstruct the true long-term variation of the vertical atmospheric field at NCK. The time-dependent shielding effect of trees at the measurement site was calculated to remove the corresponding bias from the recorded time series. A numerical model based on electrostatic theory was set up to take into account the electrostatic shielding of the local environment. The validity of the model was verified by on-site measurement campaigns. The changing height of the trees between 1962 and 2017 was derived from national average age-height diagrams for each year. Modelling the time-dependent electrical shielding effect of the trees at NCK revealed that local effects played a pivotal role in the long-term decrease. The results suggest that earlier attempts could not quantify the shielding effect of the trees at NCK accurately. It was found that the reconstructed PG time series at NCK exhibits a significant increase between 1962 and 1997 followed by a decaying trend since 1997. It is pointed out that long-term variation in summertime and wintertime PG averages should be analyzed separately as these may contribute to trends in the annual mean values rather differently.

Behind the curve: a comparison of historical sources for the Carnegie curve of the global atmospheric electric circuit

The “Carnegie curve” describes the diurnal variation of the global atmospheric electric circuit. It was originally found from atmospheric electric potential gradient (PG) measurements made on the Carnegie, effectively a floating atmospheric electrical observatory, which undertook global cruises between 1915 and 1929. These measurements confirmed that the single diurnal cycle PG variation, previously obtained in both polar regions, was global in extent. The averaged diurnal PG variation, represented by derived harmonic fits, provides a characteristic variation known as the “Carnegie curve”, against which modern measurements are still compared. The ocean air PG measurements were extensively described in reports of the Carnegie Institution of Washington (CIW) but widely used secondary sources of the Carnegie curve contain small differences, arising through approximations and transcription errors. Investigations using the historical CIW data show that the original harmonic fit coefficients are reproducible. Despite the inconsistencies, the secondary sources nevertheless mostly yield diurnal variations which fall within the variability of the original historical data.

Long-term changes in atmospheric electrical parameters observed at Nagycenk (Hungary) and the UK observatories at Eskdalemuir and Kew

The Nagycenk Geophysical Observatory in Hungary (47° 38 ' N, 16° 43 ' E) has made continuous measurements of the vertical atmospheric electric Potential Gradient (PG) since 1962. Global signals have previously been identified in the Nagycenk PG data. A long-term (1920–1981) decrease has been discovered in the PG measured at the Eskdalemuir Observatory, Scotland (55° 19 ' N, 3° 12 ' W), suggesting that this represents a global change in the atmospheric electricity related to a decline in cosmic rays. A 40% decline in PG is shown here to have occurred at Nagycenk between 1962 and 2001, also consistent with changes in the air-Earth current measured at Kew (51° 28 ' N, 0° 19 ' W), London, 1966–1978. Comparison of the long-term PG measurements at both Eskdalemuir and Nagycenk gives further evidence to support the hypothesis of a global atmospheric electrical decline from the early twentieth century to the present time, as it is shown that local effects at Nagycenk are unlikely to have dominated the changes there.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (atmospheric electricity)