Eastern revolt will complicate Sudan’s transition

Significance On the same day, a dissident faction of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) -- the umbrella group of protest leaders, political parties and armed opposition groups behind the civilian cabinet -- made the same demand. These calls reflect intensifying rifts within government, amplified by a recent failed coup and protests in eastern Sudan. Impacts An anti-corruption body may assume some functions of the ‘Empowerment Removal Commission’, which has faced accusations of politicisation. Fears that Sudan’s ports will remain vulnerable to future stoppages will further deter foreign investment. The military may continue to deepen ties with native leaders to offset the influence of its rivals in government.

Mutual Interventions in Africa

Global datasets on interstate armed conflict suggest that African states clash with each other rarely and only for short periods. This research note shows that existing datasets paint a misleading picture. In fact, African states fight each other more often and for longer than is commonly thought, but they do so by mutually intervening in each other's intrastate conflicts. Instead of relying solely on their own armed forces, they support their rival's armed opposition groups. Such mutual interventions—most prevalent in Africa but also evident in other regions—thus span the boundaries of interstate and intrastate conflict. As a result, they have been largely overlooked by conflict scholars. Our note conceptualizes mutual intervention as a distinct form of interstate conflict, comparing and contrasting it with concepts like proxy war, competitive intervention, and international rivalry. The note then presents the first systematic survey of mutual interventions across the African continent. We identify twenty-three cases between 1960 and 2010 and demonstrate that they typically ended independently of their associated intrastate conflicts. We conclude with a research agenda that involves studying the onset, duration, termination, and consequences of mutual interventions, including collecting data on mutual interventions outside Africa to explore cross-regional differences.

Sudan takes calculated risk with Bashir and the ICC

Subject Implications of former President Omar al-Bashir's possible handover to the ICC. Significance Sudan’s transitional authorities announced in February that former President Omar al-Bashir could be released to face charges of crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide before the International Criminal Court (ICC). The announcement came in the context of peace negotiations with Darfuri armed opposition groups and followed an earlier agreement to establish a special criminal court to prosecute war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Darfur. Impacts ICC acceptance of a trial in Sudan could reinforce accusations of partial or selective justice, further harming the court's weak reputation. Bashir’s transfer to the ICC would remove one point of civilian-military tension in the transition process. Sending Bashir to the ICC is unlikely to generate much domestic backlash or protests from supporters.

Burundi’s crisis may re-intensify as polls approach

Subject Burundi's political outlook. Significance On April 25, the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) celebrated the fourth anniversary of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s 2015 decision to seek another presidential term -- a move that plunged the country into crisis. The celebrations featured fulsome tributes to the president’s visionary leadership and stern warnings against any who would disrupt the country’s progress. This raises fears that the party may be preparing to present the president as its flagbearer again in 2020. Impacts A renewed push to join the Southern African Development Community may aim to offset wider isolationism, but such efforts will likely fail. Domestic tensions could spill over regionally, especially vis-à-vis Rwanda and the two nations’ de facto proxy war in Congo. Armed opposition groups may also step up their attacks, especially if further pressure mounts on their rear bases in Congo.

Rwanda-Burundi tensions threaten regional stability

Subject Rwanda-Burundi tensions. Significance Following months of angry exchanges, in late January, Rwanda issued a series of arrest warrants against individuals allegedly involved in armed opposition groups based in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It accuses Burundi of supporting those groups. Burundi in turn accuses Rwanda of supporting Burundian armed opposition groups in the DRC. Impacts The tensions will put more strain on the East African Community, which has struggled to strengthen security and political integration. The tensions will be especially detrimental to Burundi’s economy, which has been crippled by years of turmoil and isolation. Rwanda-Uganda tensions have also risen over recent years, but there are indications that Rwanda may look to de-escalate here.

Bashir will fight to survive Sudan protests

Significance Since late December, Sudan has faced a persistent wave of protests, with demonstrators complaining of dire economic conditions but also calling for President Omar al-Bashir to step down. Impacts Khartoum may secure new financial aid from the Gulf, but this will not resolve its problems. Hitherto weakened armed opposition groups may feel encouraged to hold out for change and to position themselves in transition debates. Domestic unrest may hamper Sudan’s role as guarantor of South Sudan’s peace deal, but that deal faces challenges Khartoum cannot remedy.

Burundi will seek to ease its international isolation

Subject Burundi political outlook Significance UN Special Envoy Michel Kafando delivered a generally upbeat assessment of the political and security situation in Burundi in early August. However, the prognosis may reflect more the success of a deliberate government strategy to improve external relations than any fundamental transformation of the political situation. Impacts High tensions with Rwanda could spike, especially if insecurity flares in border areas. Armed opposition groups based in neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo may pose an increasing security threat within Burundi. Persistently high numbers of Burundian refugees will be a source of tension throughout the region.