Provision of social-norms feedback to general practices whose antibiotic prescribing is increasing: a national randomized controlled trial

Aim The Chief Medical Officer of England writes an annual social-norms-feedback letter to the highest antibiotic-prescribing GP practices. We investigated whether sending a social-norms-feedback letter to practices whose prescribing was increasing would reduce prescribing. Subject and methods We conducted a two-armed randomised controlled trial amongst practices whose STAR-PU-adjusted prescribing was in the 20th–95th percentiles and had increased by > 4% year-on-year in the 2 previous financial years. Intervention practices received a letter on 1st March 2018 stating ‘The great majority (80%) of practices in England reduced or stabilised their antibiotic prescribing rates in 2016/17. However, your practice is in the minority that have increased their prescribing by more than 4%.’. Control practices received no letter. The primary outcome was the STAR-PU-adjusted rate of antibiotic prescribing in the months from March to September 2018. Results We randomly assigned 930 practices; ten closed or merged pre-trial, leaving 920 practices — 448 in the intervention and 472 in the control. An autoregressive and moving average model of first order ARMA(1,1) correlation structure showed no effect of the intervention (β < −0.01, z = −0.50, p = 0.565). Prescribing reduced over time in both arms (β < −0.01, z = −36.36, p < 0.001). Conclusions A social-norms-feedback letter to practices whose prescribing was increasing did not decrease prescribing compared to no letter. Trial registration NCT03582072.

Differential impact of Covid-19 on incidence of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases in acute, post-acute and long Covid-19: population-based cohort study in the United Kingdom

Objective: This study aimed to estimate the incidence of new diabetes mellitus (DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) up to one year after Covid-19 compared with matched controls. Methods: A cohort study was conducted using electronic records for 1,473 family practices with a population of 14.9 million. Covid-19 patients without DM or CVD were individually matched with controls and followed up to October 2021. A difference-in-difference analysis estimated the net effect of Covid-19 allowing for baseline differences and covariates. Results: There were 372,816 Covid-19 patients, with 2,935 CVD and 3,139 DM events, and 372,816 matched controls with 1,193 CVD and 1,861 DM events following the index date. Net incidence of DM increased in acute Covid-19 up to four weeks from index date (adjusted rate ratio, RR 1.71, 1.40 to 2.10) and remained elevated in post-acute (five to 12 weeks from index date; RR 1.17, 1.01 to 1.36) and long-Covid-19 (13 to 52 weeks, 1.20, 1.09 to 1.31). Acute Covid-19 was associated with net increased CVD incidence (RR 6.02, 95% confidence interval 4.84 to 7.47) including pulmonary embolism (RR 14.5, 7.72 to 27.4), atrial arrythmias (6.58, 3.78 to 11.4) and venous thromboses (5.44, 3.22 to 9.17). CVD incidence declined in post-acute Covid-19 (R 1.68, 1.41 to 2.01) and showed no net increase in long Covid-19 (0.95, 0.85 to 1.06). Conclusions: DM incidence remains elevated up to one year following Covid-19. CVD is increased early after Covid-19 mainly from pulmonary embolism, atrial arrhythmias and venous thromboses.

Mothers of children with major congenital anomalies have increased health care utilization over a 20-year post-birth time horizon

Objective This population-based, matched cohort study aimed to evaluate utilization of health care services by mothers of children with major congenital anomalies (MCAs), compared to mothers of children without MCAs over a 20-year post-birth time horizon in Denmark. Methods Our analytic sample included mothers who gave birth to an infant with a MCA (n = 23,927) and a cohort of mothers matched to them by maternal age, parity and infant’s year of birth (n = 239,076). Primary outcomes were period prevalence and mothers’ quantity of health care utilization (primary, inpatient, outpatient, surgical, and psychiatric services) stratified by their child’s age (i.e., ages 0–6 = before school, ages 7–13 = pre-school + primary education, and ages 14–18 = secondary education or higher). The secondary outcome measure was length of hospital stays. Outcome measures were adjusted for maternal age at delivery, parity, marital status, income quartile, level of education in the year prior to the index birth, previous spontaneous abortions, maternal pregnancy complications, maternal diabetes, hypertension, alcohol-related diseases, and maternal smoking. Results In both cohorts the majority of mothers were between 26 and 35 years of age, married, and employed, and 47% were primiparous. Mothers of infants with anomalies had greater utilization of outpatient, inpatient, surgical, and psychiatric services, compared with mothers in the matched cohort. Inpatient service utilization was greater in the exposed cohort up to 13 years after a child’s birth, with the highest risk in the first six years after birth [adjusted risk ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12–1.14], with a decrease over time. Regarding the quantity of health care utilization, the greatest difference between the two groups was in inpatient service utilization, with a 39% increased rate in the exposed cohort during the first six years after birth (adjusted rate ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.37–1.42). During the first 6 years after birth, mothers of children with anomalies stayed a median of 6 days (interquartile range [IQR], 3–13) in hospital overall, while the comparison cohort stayed a median of 4 days (IQR, 2–7) in hospital overall. Rates of utilization of outpatient clinics (adjusted rate ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.29–1.42), as well as inpatient (adjusted rate ratio, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.68–1.87), and surgical services (adjusted rate ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.26–1.41) was higher in mothers of children with multiple-organ MCAs during 0 to 6 years after birth. Among mothers at the lowest income levels, utilization of psychiatric clinic services increased to 59% and when their child was 7 to 13 years of age (adjusted rate ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.24–2.03). Conclusion Mothers of infants with a major congenital anomaly had greater health care utilization across services. Health care utilization decreased over time or remained stable for outpatient, inpatient, and surgical care services, whereas psychiatric utilization increased for up to 13 years after an affected child’s birth. Healthcare utilization was significantly elevated among mothers of children with multiple MCAs and among those at the lowest income levels.

Family violence homicide rates: a state-wide comparison of three data sources in Victoria, Australia

Background Family violence homicide (FVH) is a major public health and social problem in Australia. FVH trend rates are key outcomes that determine the effectiveness of current management practices and policy directions. Data source–related methodological problems affect FVH research and policy and the reliable measurement of homicide trends. Objective This study aimed to determine data reliability and temporal trends of Victorian FVH rates and sex and relationship patterns. Method FVH rates per 100,000 persons in Victoria were compared between the National Coronial Information System (NCIS), Coroners Court of Victoria (CCoV) Homicide Register, and the National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP). Trends for 2001–2017 were analysed using Joinpoint regression. Crude rates were determined by sex and relationship categories using annual frequencies and Australian Bureau of Statistics population estimates. Results NCIS closed FVH cases totalled 360, and an apparent downward trend in the FVH rate was identified. However, CCoV and NHMP rates trended upwards. While NCIS and CCoV were case-based, NHMP was incident-based, contributing to rate variations. The NCIS-derived trend was particularly impacted by unavailable case data, potential coding errors and entry backlog. Neither CCoV nor NHMP provided victim-age in their public domain data to enable age-adjusted rate comparison. Conclusion Current datasets have limitations for FVH trend determination; most notably lag times for NCIS data. Implications This study identified an indicative upward trend in FVH rates in Victoria, suggesting insufficiency of current management and policy settings for its prevention and control.

The National Burden of Influenza-Like Illness and Severe Respiratory Illness Overall and Associated with Nine Respiratory Viruses in South Africa, 2013-2015

Background Estimates of the disease burden associated with different respiratory viruses are severely limited in low- and middle-income countries, especially in Africa. Methods We estimated age-specific numbers and rates of medically and non-medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe respiratory illness (SRI) that were associated with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus, adenovirus, enterovirus and parainfluenza virus types 1-3 after adjusting for the attributable fraction (AF) of virus detection to illness in South Africa during 2013-2015. Rates were reported per 100,000 population. Results The mean annual rates were 51,383 and 4,196 for ILI and SRI, respectively. Of these, 26% (for ILI) and 46% (for SRI) were medically attended. Among outpatients with ILI, rhinovirus had the highest AF-adjusted rate (7,221), followed by influenza (6,443) and adenovirus (1,364); whereas, among inpatients with SRI, rhinovirus had the highest AF-adjusted rate (400), followed by RSV (247) and influenza (130). Rhinovirus (9,424) and RSV (2,026) had the highest AF-adjusted rates among children aged <5 years with ILI or SRI, respectively; whereas rhinovirus (757) and influenza (306) had the highest AF-adjusted rates among individuals aged ≥65 years with ILI or SRI, respectively Conclusions There was a substantial burden of ILI and SRI in South Africa during 2013-2015. Rhinovirus and influenza had a prominent disease burden among patients with ILI. Rhinovirus had the highest burden of illness among patients of any age with SRI, followed by RSV. RSV and influenza were the most prominent causes of SRI in children and the elderly, respectively.

Abstract 10611: Variation in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Survival Across EMS Agencies

Background: Although some studies have reported variation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survival by neighborhood and geographic region, little is known about variation in OHCA survival at the level of EMS agencies—which, unlike neighborhoods and regions, may have modifiable resuscitation practices. Methods: Within the national Cardiac Arrest Registry to Enhance Survival, we identified 258,320 non-traumatic OHCAs from 764 EMS agencies with ≥10 OHCAs annually between 2015-2019. Using multivariable hierarchical logistic regression, we computed risk-adjusted rates of survival to hospital admission for each EMS agency. We quantified the extent of variation in survival with the median odds ratios (MOR) and assessed the extent to which variation in survival was explained by two EMS agency resuscitation practices: time from 911 call to EMS arrival and the proportion of OHCAs at each EMS agency with termination of resuscitation (TOR) without meeting TOR futility criteria. Results: Of 258,320 persons with OHCA, mean age was 62.2 ± 17.0 years and 36.1% were female. Overall, 85.0% were of presumed cardiac etiology, 82.3% occurred at home, 44.0% were witnessed by a bystander, and ~75% were due to a non-shockable initial rhythm. Across the 764 EMS agencies, the median risk-adjusted rate of survival to hospital admission was 27.4% (IQR, 24.5% - 30.2%). The adjusted MOR was 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32, 1.39), suggesting that the odds of survival to hospital admission after an OHCA varied by 35% in two identical patients in one randomly selected EMS agency vs. another. EMS agencies in the lowest quartile of risk-adjusted survival had a mean EMS response time of 12.0 ± 3.4 minutes, whereas those in the highest quartile had a mean EMS response time of 9.0 ± 2.6 minutes ( P <0.001). The mean proportion of OHCA cases where CPR was terminated in the field without meeting TOR futility criteria was 27.9% ±16.1% in quartile 1 and 18.9% ±11.4% in quartile 4 ( P <0.001). Adjustment for the EMS-level variation in both resuscitation practices attenuated the MOR to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.27, 1.33). Conclusions: Rates of survival to hospital admission for OHCA vary significantly by EMS agency, and some of this variation in survival is explained by differences in EMS arrival time and TOR practice patterns.

Temporal changes in cardiovascular disease and infections in dialysis across a 22-year period: a nationwide study

Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and infections are recognized as serious complications in patients with end stage kidney disease. However, little is known about the change over time in incidence of these complications. This study aimed to investigate temporal changes in CVD and infective diseases across more than two decades in chronic dialysis patients. Methods All patients that initiated peritoneal dialysis (PD) or hemodialysis (HD) between 1996 and 2017 were identified and followed until outcome (CVD, pneumonia, infective endocarditis (IE) or sepsis), recovery of kidney function, end of dialysis treatment, death or end of study (December 31st, 2017). The calendar time was divided into 5 periods with period 1 (1996–2000) being the reference period. Adjusted rate ratios were assessed using Poisson regression. Results In 4285 patients with PD (63.7% males) the median age increased across the calendar periods from 65 [57–73] in 1996–2000 to 69 [55–76] in 2014–2017, (p < 0.0001). In 9952 patients with HD (69.2% males), the overall median age was 71 [61–78] without any changes over time. Among PD, an overall non-significant decreasing trend in rate ratios (RR) of CVD was found, (p = 0,071). RR of pneumonia increased significantly throughout the calendar with an almost two-fold increase of the RR in 2014–2017 (RR 1.71; 95% CI 1.46–2.0), (p < 0.001), as compared to the reference period. The RR of IE decreased significantly until 2009 (RR 0.43; 95% CI 0.21–0.87), followed by a return to the reference level in 2010–2013 (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.47–1.60 and 2014–2017 (RR 1.1; 95% CI 0.59–2.04). A highly significant (p < 0.001) increase in sepsis was revealed across the calendar periods with an almost 5-fold increase in 2014–2017 (RR 4.69 95% CI 3.69–5.96). In HD, the RR of CVD decreased significantly (p < 0.001) from 2006 to 2017 (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.79–0.92). Compared to the reference period, the RR for pneumonia was high during all calendar periods (p < 0.05). The RR of IE was initially unchanged (p = 0.4) but increased in 2010–2013 (RR 2.02; 95% CI 1.43–2.85) and 2014–2017 (RR 3.39; 95% CI 2.42–4.75). No significant changes in sepsis were seen. Conclusion Across the two last decades the RR of CVD has shown a decreasing trend in HD and PD patients, while RR of pneumonia increased significantly, both in PD and in HD. Temporal trends of IE in HD, and particularly of sepsis in PD were upwards across the last decades.

Mortality among People with Epilepsy: A Retrospective Nationwide Analysis from 2016 to 2019

We estimated age-adjusted mortality and investigated the dominant causes of death as well as comorbidities among people with epilepsy (PWE) in Lithuania, a country with frequent deaths from external causes. From 2016 to 2019, the age-adjusted rate of death among PWE in Lithuania was compared with mortality data in the general population. Each year of analysis, individuals who were diagnosed with epilepsy comprised a retrospective cohort. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of PWE varied from 2.93 (95% CI 2.78 to 3.07) to 3.18 (95% CI 3.02 to 3.34). PWE died at least one decade earlier than expected in the general population. The dominant causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (their proportion ranged from 44.8% to 49.3%), cancer (16.7% to 21.3%) and external causes of death (8.5% to 10.9%). The proportion of the latter decreased over time (r = −0.99, p = 0.01), whereas the SMR for external causes of death remained relatively constant. Epilepsy was the underlying cause of death in 163 cases (2.6%), and noted as a condition contributing to death in 1010 cases (15.9%). Cerebrovascular and cardiological conditions and dementia were the most frequent comorbidities among PWE before their death. Epilepsy-unrelated causes of death are relevant contributors to mortality among PWE. There is a need for PWE-oriented societal interventions to reduce the frequency of external deaths beyond the trend in the general population.

Hospital-acquired influenza in the United States, FluSurv-NET, 2011–2012 through 2018–2019

Objective: To estimate population-based rates and to describe clinical characteristics of hospital-acquired (HA) influenza. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: US Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) during 2011–2012 through 2018–2019 seasons. Methods: Patients were identified through provider-initiated or facility-based testing. HA influenza was defined as a positive influenza test date and respiratory symptom onset >3 days after admission. Patients with positive test date >3 days after admission but missing respiratory symptom onset date were classified as possible HA influenza. Results: Among 94,158 influenza-associated hospitalizations, 353 (0.4%) had HA influenza. The overall adjusted rate of HA influenza was 0.4 per 100,000 persons. Among HA influenza cases, 50.7% were 65 years of age or older, and 52.0% of children and 95.7% of adults had underlying conditions; 44.9% overall had received influenza vaccine prior to hospitalization. Overall, 34.5% of HA cases received ICU care during hospitalization, 19.8% required mechanical ventilation, and 6.7% died. After including possible HA cases, prevalence among all influenza-associated hospitalizations increased to 1.3% and the adjusted rate increased to 1.5 per 100,000 persons. Conclusions: Over 8 seasons, rates of HA influenza were low but were likely underestimated because testing was not systematic. A high proportion of patients with HA influenza were unvaccinated and had severe outcomes. Annual influenza vaccination and implementation of robust hospital infection control measures may help to prevent HA influenza and its impacts on patient outcomes and the healthcare system.

Standardized incidence ratio of the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study in a Midwestern state

ABSTRACTMotivationThe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has made a dramatic impact around the world, with some communities facing harsher outcomes than others. We sought to understand how counties in the state of South Dakota (SD) fared compared to expected based on a reference population and what factors contributed to negative outcomes from the pandemic in SD.MethodsThe Standardized Incidence Ratios (SIR) of all counties, using age-adjusted and crude adjusted hospitalization and death rates were computed using the SD age-adjusted rate as a reference population. In addition, a penalized generalized linear regression model was used to identify factors that are associated with COVID-19 hospitalization and death rates. This model was then used to compute a new SIR after controlling for other socio-demographic and -economic factors.ResultsWe identified counties that had more or less severe outcomes than what would be expected based on the rate of SD after age adjustment. Additionally, race, education, and testing rate were some of the significant factors associated with the outcome. The SIR values after controlling for these additional factors showed change in magnitude from the range of 4 times more severe to 1.5 times more severe out-come than what is expected. Interestingly the lower end of this interval did not have a major change.ConclusionThe age adjusted SIR model used in this study allowed for the identification of counties with more or less severe than what is expected based on the state rate. These counties tended to be those with high nonwhite percentage, which mostly included counties with American Indian reservations. Although several predictors are associated with hospitalization and deaths, the penalized model confirmed what is already reported in literature that race and education level have a very high association with the outcome variables. As can be expected the further adjusted SIR mostly changed in those counties with higher than expected outcomes. We believe that these results may provide useful information to improve the implementation of mitigation strategies to curb the damage of this or future pandemics by providing a way for data-driven resource allocation.