A NOTE ON THE DOUBLE IMPACT ON CVA FOR CDS: WRONG-WAY RISK WITH STOCHASTIC RECOVERY

Current CVA modeling framework has ignored the impact of stochastic recovery rate. Due to the possible negative correlation between default and recovery rate, stochastic recovery rate could have a doubling effect on wrong-way risk. In the case of a payer CDS, when counterparty defaults, the CDS value could be higher due to default contagion while the recovery rate may also be lower if the economy is in a downturn. Using our recently proposed model of correlated stochastic recovery in the default time Gaussian copula framework, we demonstrate this double impact on wrong-way risk in the CVA calculation for a payer CDS. We also present a new form of Gaussian copula that correlates both default time and recovery rate.

A Note on Credit Insurance

In a simple stationary setting with constant interest rate, we derive pricing formulas for defaultable bonds with stochastic recovery rate using a replication argument. Replication is done by using an insurance contract (i.e. a kind of credit default swap), the price of which is determined by a dynamic premium calculation principle. We consider two cases, a linear one, where pricing amounts to solving an inhomogeneous linear ODE, and a super-linear case where a Riccati ODE has to be solved.

A Note on Credit Insurance

In a simple stationary setting with constant interest rate, we derive pricing formulas for defaultable bonds with stochastic recovery rate using a replication argument. Replication is done by using an insurance contract (i.e. a kind of credit default swap), the price of which is determined by a dynamic premium calculation principle. We consider two cases, a linear one, where pricing amounts to solving an inhomogeneous linear ODE, and a super-linear case where a Riccati ODE has to be solved.