The Interplay of Race/Ethnicity and Education in Fertility Patterns

This study examines the racial/ethnic and educational disparities in fertility for U.S. women born during 1960–80. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth from 2006 to 2017, we apply a regression-based approach to estimate 1) cohort total fertility rates, 2) parity progression ratios, and 3) parity-specific probability of having a birth by age, for non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, and Hispanics by educational attainments. We find that compared to their White counterparts, Black and Hispanic women with less than a high school education have higher fertility. However, among college educated women, Blacks have the lowest fertility levels, whereas Hispanics have the highest. The difference in fertility between Black and White college educated women is mainly driven by the smaller proportion of Black mothers having second births. We find little evidence that the observed racial disparities in fertility levels across educational levels are driven by differences in fertility timing.

Drastic changes in fertility level and timing in response to marriage and fertility policies: evidence from Shandong province, China

China’s “one-child policy” that had been in force between 1980 and 2016 evolved over time and differed widely between regions. Local policies in many regions also targeted the timing and spacing of childbearing by setting the minimum age at marriage, first birth and second birth and defining minimum interval between births. Our study uses data from the 120 Counties Population Dynamics Monitoring System to reconstruct fertility level and timing in nine counties in Shandong province, which experienced frequent changes in birth and marriage policies. We reconstruct detailed indicators of fertility by birth order in 1986–2016, when policies on marriage and fertility timing became strictly enforced since 1989 and subsequently relaxed (especially in 2002) and abandoned (in 2013). Our analysis reveals that birth timing policies have fuelled drastic changes in fertility level, timing and spacing in the province. In the early 1990s period fertility rates plummeted to extreme low levels, with the provincial average total fertility rate falling below 1 in 1992–1995. Second births rates fell especially sharply. The age schedule of childbearing shifted to later ages and births became strongly concentrated just above the minimum policy age at first and second birth, resulting in a bimodal distribution of fertility with peaks at ages 25 and 32. Conversely, the abandonment of the province-level policy on the minimum age at marriage and first birth and less strict enforcement of the policy on the minimum age at second birth contributed to a recovery of period fertility rates in the 2000s and a shift to earlier timing of first and second births. It also led to a shorter second birth interval and a re-emergence of a regular age schedule of fertility with a single peak around age 28.

Recent sex ratio at birth in China

BackgroundChina’s sex ratio at birth (SRB) has declined in the past decade but still exceeds the normal level. This study seeks to depict the SRB trend in the past two decades.MethodsWe depicted the SRB trend, including SRB by birth order, children composition, residence and hukou type, education, race and province using latest data available from multiple data sources and standardisation and decomposition methods.ResultsThe SRB remained around 120 in the first decade from 2000 to 2010, and recently declined and approached the normal level during 2010–2020. The SRB for second births and first births converged to the normal level, whereas the SRB for third and above births exceeded the normal level. The rising proportion of second births increased, whereas the decreasing proportion of first births reduced the overall SRB. Parents with only daughters are more likely to abort a female fetus in pursuit of a son, while parents with only sons are more likely to abort a male fetus in pursuit of a daughter. It also shows difference in SRB by residence, hukou type, educational attainment and race. Urban SRB was lower than rural SRB, by the residence and hukou type, but higher than rural SRB after being standardised. Provinces still exhibit differences by original categorised policy even after the implementation of the universal two-child policy.ConclusionsChina’s SRB has declined substantially during the past two decades, but the negative effects need to be tackled.

Smallness at Birth and Neonatal Death: Reexamining the Current Indicator Using Sibling Data

Objective The similarity in size among siblings has implications for neonatal death, but research in this area is lacking in the United States. We examined the association between small-for-gestational age (SGA), defined as a birthweight <10th percentile for gestational age, and neonatal death, defined as death within the first 28 days of life, among second births who had an elder sibling with SGA (“repeaters”) versus those whose elder sibling did not have SGA (“nonrepeaters”). Study Design We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study including 179,436 women who had their first two nonanomalous singleton live births in Missouri (1989–2005). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between SGA and neonatal death among second births, stratified by whether the elder sibling was SGA. Results Out of 179,436 second births, 297 died in the neonatal period. There was a significant interaction between birthweight-for-gestational age of first and second births in relation to neonatal death (p = 0.001). Second births with SGA had increased odds of neonatal death by 2.15-fold if they were “repeaters,” and 4.44-fold if they were “nonrepeaters,” as compared with non-SGA second births. Conclusion Our findings suggest that referencing sibling birthweight may be warranted when evaluating infant size in relation to neonatal death.