ON COMPLEX ECONOMIC SCENARIO GENERATORS: IS LESS MORE?

This article proposes a complex economic scenario generator that nests versions of well-known actuarial frameworks. The generator estimation relies on the Bayesian paradigm and accounts for both model and parameter uncertainty via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. So, to the question is less more?, we answer maybe, but it depends on your criteria. From an in-sample fit perspective, on the one hand, a complex economic scenario generator seems better. From the conservatism, forecasting and coverage perspectives, on the other hand, the situation is less clear: having more complex models for the short rate, term structure and stock index returns is clearly beneficial. However, that is not the case for inflation and the dividend yield.

The impact of the pandemic on the quotes of the leading players in the QSR market

All over the world, non-essential businesses were closed during the pandemic, which subsequently led to a deterioration in the economic condition of the whole world, the main negative factor was the surprise. The world economy was not prepared for such events. The service industry was completely destroyed along with the tourism and hotel industry. Companies that are able to work remotely were able to continue to work and survive the crisis. But industries that require personal interaction have been almost completely destroyed. This study aims to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets, as the stock market provides an updated summary of views on the ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the theoretical structure, the prices of securities always fully refl ect all available information. As a result, it can be expected that there should be a strong link between the COVID-19 pandemic and stock index returns. The aim of the work is to study the impact of the pandemic on the quotes of the leading players in the QSR market. To achieve this goal, the author analyzed the dynamics of stock indices that were aff ected by the pandemic, studied the prices per troy ounce of gold on MOEX, the US unemployment rate, the position of the stock indices of the US, Russia, Germany, Great Britain and France relative to 01.01.2020, the index of bond yields of companies with a Ba/BB rating.

In Search of Stock Market Proxy to Calculate Systematic Risk (Beta) of Stocks in Indonesia Stock Exchange

The calculation of beta stock in Indonesia is still debatable to this day. Though many researchers who have used sophisticated methods mathematically, the assumptions applied in developing the methods are impossible to happen in the real world, such as the ability of stock market return the day after (lead) affects the market return today. This study was conducted to assess the stock price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange that can be used as a proxy of stock market in Indonesia. The results of this study showed that there was a gap between beta stocks counted with JCI return as a market proxy with beta stocks counted with index returns of LQ-45, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. This study has also found that the beta counted by using KOMPAS-100 return produced the smallest standard error of the estimate (SEE) that it was more applicable compared to the other stock index returns.

Impact of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty on travel and leisure stock return

PurposeThis paper considers the role of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty (both domestic and European) in explaining the changes in the contemporaneous and future travel and leisure stock index returns in top European Union (EU) tourism destinations, namely, in France, Germany, Spain and the UK.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted the ordinary least square (OLS) regression estimations to investigate the impact of changes in economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty on travel and leisure stock returns. Furthermore, the authors used predictive regressions to determine whether economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty are useful predictors over the short- or medium-term for travel and leisure stock returns.FindingsEmpirical results revealed that, in France and Spain, the changes in regional economic sentiments predominantly and positively affected travel and leisure stock index returns. Also, results indicated that changes in European economic sentiment have a strong positive effect on the future travel and leisure stock returns in Spain and the UK over the short run, while in France, changes in European economic policy uncertainty have a weak negative effect on the future travel and leisure stock returns over the medium-term.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper provides valuable practical implications for investors who trade travel and leisure stocks. Traders can use economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty to establish arbitrageur strategies.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the effects of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty (both domestic and European) on contemporaneous and future travel and leisure stock returns in a top European tourism destination.

Comparison of the Effect of Vix Fear Index on Stock Exchange Indices of Developed and Developing Countries: the G20 Case

This study aims to examine the potential causal relationship between the VIX and the indicator stock exchange index returns of G20 (9 developed and 10 developing) countries. Nineteen countries of the sample are G20 countries with available data. In this respect, the frequency domain Granger causality test of Breitung and Candelon (2006) is employed for the daily data between March 2011 and December 2017. The results obtained from the study indicate that there is no causal relationship between the VIX and the returns of the NASDAQ 100 index in developed countries. Similarly, no causal relationship is detected which runs from the VIX to the BIST100, BOVESPA, MERVAL, S&P/BMV IPC and TADAWUL stock index returns in developing countries. As a result, the causal relationship is more tend to be found in developed countries in comparison to developing countries.

The Skewness of the Stock Market over Long Horizons

Higher moments of long-horizon returns are important for asset pricing but are hard to measure accurately using standard techniques. We provide theory showing that short-horizon (e.g., daily) returns can be used to construct precise estimates of long-horizon (e.g., annual) moments without making strong assumptions about the data-generating process. Skewness comprises two components: skewness of short-horizon returns and a leverage effect, that is, covariance between variance and lagged returns. We provide similar results for kurtosis. An application to U.S. stock index returns shows that skew is large and negative and attenuates only slowly as one moves from monthly to multiyear horizons.

A Wavelet-Based Analysis of the Co-Movement between Sukuk Bonds and Shariah Stock Indices in the GCC Region: Implications for Risk Diversification

Investors are interested in knowing whether sukuk bonds and shariah stock indices in the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) region are related. This study examines the connectedness between the sukuk- and shariah-compliant stock indices in the GCC financial markets. Bivariate and multivariate wavelet approaches are applied to the daily data covering the period 10 July 2008 to 15 May 2017. The empirical findings demonstrate a strong correlation between these GCC sukuk bond indices and shariah stock indices. The degree of connectedness between these sukuk and shariah stock indices varies across time and scale. A strong and positive association is observed in the short term and a negative association is evident in the long term. The same findings are observed, using the wavelet cohesion approach that also validates the existence of portfolio diversification opportunities at a short-time horizon. The multivariate cross-correlation analysis reveals that these sukuk and shariah stock markets are highly integrated across time and scale. Furthermore, the value at risk (VaR) for the sukuk bond–shariah stocks portfolio is performed to highlight the significance of the wavelet analysis. The outcomes show that portfolio stocks are variable with respect to time or scale (time diversification). Overall, analyzing the sukuk bond–shariah stock index returns in the GCC at a multiscale level makes it easier for financial agents dealing with heterogeneous trading horizons to assess the benefits of diversifications.

Weather Effects on Industrial Stock Index Returns and Volatilities: Evidence from Korean Stock Market

This study empirically investigates weather effects on Korean stock index returns and market volatility based on the GJR-GARCH-X model. We focus on the issue about whether the weather effect is associated with financial deregulation and foreign investors’ transactions, which should not be affected by the weather conditions in Seoul City. To explore the weather effects by controlling for foreign investors’ trading, we employ daily stock index data and weather indicators (cloud cover, precipitation, sunshine hours, snow, and humidity) during the period from 1981 to 2016. Our empirical results suggest that there is little evidence for weather effects on KOSPI and stock returns by industry listed in the Korea Stock Exchange even if Korean financial market deregulations in 1997 increases foreign investors’ trading, but there is some evidence for weather effects on market volatilities.