Uncertainty analysis for the data-driven model using Monte Carlo simulations to predict sodium adsorption rate: A case study, Aras, Sepid-Rud, and Karun Rivers in Iran

Water quality management requires a profound understating of future variations of surface and groundwater qualities for assessment and planning for human consumption, industrial, and irrigation purposes. In this regard, mathematical models, such as Box-Jenkins time series models, Bayesian time series models, and data-driven models are available for future prediction of water quality. However, the uncertainty associated with forecasting is one of the main problems of using these models towards water quality and future planning. In the present work, the uncertainty of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, based on Fuzzy c-means clustering, (ANFIS-FCMC) (genfis 3) model is quantified to analyze and predict Sodium Adsorption Rate(SAR) of water of Aras, Sepid-Rud, and Karun Rivers by using Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate the combined standard and the expanded uncertainty simulated for SAR of Aras River water are 0.58 and1.16, respectively, and the gap is 2 .412 ±1.1622. Also, the combined standard and the expanded uncertainty simulated for SAR of Spid-Rud River water were1.11 and 2.22, respectively, and the gap is equal to 2 .235 ±2.22. Furthermore, the combined standard and the expanded uncertainty simulated for SAR of Aras River water are 2.063, and 4.126, respectively, and the gap is 4.79 ±4.126. Finally, the minimum uncertainty happened to predict SAR of Aras River using ANFIS-FCMC (genfis3) model and maximum SAR uncertainty belong to Karun River.

Conversion of microplastics to flocs during estuarine mixing the Aras River with the Caspian Sea

Microplastics originated from various sources are carried by rivers into oceans, seas and lakes. In the last few years, the accumulation of microplastic particles in marine environments has been on the increase which causes irreversible damages to flora, fauna and human health. One of the most considerable processes in an estuary is the flocculation process. The flocculation process converts pollutants to flocs or greater particles. In the present study, the conversion of microplastics to flocs during estuarine mixing of the Aras River water and the Caspian Sea water is investigated for the first time. The results clearly show that a huge percentage of microplastics (99.95%) are converted to greater particles (> 5mm) due to the flocculation process. The maximum flocculation rate of microplastics (47.37%) is observed at the salinity of 0.25 ppt. Moreover, 35.71% of microplastics are flocculated at the salinity of 29 ppt. Salinity enhances the flocculation of microplastics.

Trophic transfer, bioaccumulation and Health risk assessment of heavy metal in Aras river, Case study: Amphipoda- Zander - Human

This research investigates and traces heavy metals (As, Pb, Cd and Cu) in a model of the aqueous food chain in the Aras River, located in northwestern of Iran. The selected model includes the zander (Sander lucioperca L.) and crustacean species known as amphipods (Gammarus spp.) that belong to the food chain of this fish. A total of 172 samples (70 fish and 102 Amphipoda) were collected randomly from the stations and analyzed for heavy metals using an Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry (AAS). The results showed that the accumulation of heavy metals in both Taxon are in the order of As > Pb > Cd > Cu and concentrations of heavy metals in fish body are higher than Gammarus spp. in every stations in different seasons. Specimens of station (1) due to industrial activities indicates the highest heavy metal content. The concentrations of As, Pb, and Cd exceedes the permissible limits. There is a close correlation between the concentration of heavy metals in the amphipod and zander. The target hazard quotient (THQ), Total target hazard quotient (TTHQ) and Carcinogenic Risk (CR) were calculated to assess human health risk. The average of THQ for As (1.43) exceedes the international standards and will endangere the consumers of this fish species. The TTHQ for heavy metals has been estimated highr than 1. and at all stations, the value of CRCd > 1×10− 3, which reveals the degree of evidence of carcinogenicity of this metal in all parts of the Aras River. Therefore, according to results, effective controls and regular monitoring should be established in this regions

Iğdır İli Çiftlik Hayvanı İçme Suyu Mineral İçeriklerinin Araştırılması

With this research, it was aimed to investigate the content of some heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn) and macro minerals (Mg, Ca, K, Na) in the water resources that meet the water needs of livestock in Iğdır. Water samples were collected from natural springs, surface waters, wells and drilling waters, Aras river and its branches in the region. The data obtained were classified in two different ways and statistical analysis was performed. 1. According to the districts; Central District, Tuzluca, Karakoyunlu, Aralık. 2. According to the type of water resources; Ağrı Mountain spring waters, Ağrı Mountain surface waters, Mountain spring waters, Mountain surface waters, west of Aras river and it’s canals, east of Aras river, Well and Drilling waters. Mineral levels of the water samples were measured by using Atomic Absorption Spectrometer with flame system. According to the district assessment, it was seen that Tuzluca district had lower values compared to other districts. When evaluated according to the type of water source, water mineral content was determined to increase as the waters flowing forward on the surface after reaching to the earth surface It was even found to have become unfit for consumption towards the end. Consequently, with this research, the levels of some heavy metals and macro minerals in the waters used for livestock in the Iğdır region were revealed for the first time with their details. Except for the waters of the East Aras river, the waters of the Iğdır region were found to be of usable quality for animal husbandry.