Physical Process Contributions to the Development of a Super Explosive Cyclone Over the Gulf Stream

Contributions of different physical processes to the development of a super explosive cyclone (SEC) migrating over the Gulf Stream with the maximum deepening rate of 3.45 Bergeron were investigated using the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The evolution of the SEC resembled the Shapiro-Keyser model. The moisture transported to the bent-back front by easterlies from Gulf Stream favored precipitation and enhanced the latent heat release. The bent-back front and warm front were dominated by the water vapor convergence in the mid-low troposphere, the cyclonic-vorticity advection in the mid-upper troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere. These factors favored the rapid development of the SEC, but their contributions showed significant differences during the explosive-developing stage. The diagnostic results based on the Zwack-Okossi equation suggested that the early explosive development of the SEC was mainly forced by the diabatic heating in the mid-low troposphere. From the early explosive-developing moment to maximum-deepening-rate moment, the diabatic heating, warm-air advection and cyclonic-vorticity advection were all enhanced significantly, their combination forced the most explosive development, and the diabatic heating had the biggest contribution, followed by the warm-air advection and cyclonic-vorticity advection, which is different from the previous studies of ECs over the Northwestern Atlantic. The cross section of these factors suggested that during the rapid development, the cyclonic-vorticity advection was distributed and enhanced significantly in the mid-low troposphere, the warm-air advection was strengthened significantly in the mid-low and upper troposphere, and the diabatic heating was distributed in the middle troposphere.

Higher probability of abrupt shift from drought to heavy rainfall in a warmer world

The abrupt shift from drought to heavy rainfall can lead to consecutive drought-flood hazards with high socioeconomic losses. However, past and future changes in such abrupt shift events remain poorly understood. Here we show that the lagged dependence of drought and heavy rainfall may double the probability of consecutive drought-flood hazards that would be expected from the independent occurrence of both hazards. The average historical probability of abrupt shift is 53% and will increase robustly with warming across mid- and high-latitude areas. Such increases may even emerge in the regions with projected decreases in both droughts and heavy rainfall events. Future droughts are more likely to terminate along with intense convection and strong water vapor convergence exceeding those in future normal periods, potentially amplifying the probability and intensity of heavy rainfall following droughts. Such rainfall intensification would seriously challenge the adaptation of global water infrastructure to rapid drought-flood cycles.

Characteristics of the Precipitation Diurnal Variation and Underlying Mechanisms Over Jiangsu, Eastern China, During Warm Season

Based on the hourly precipitation observed from ∼1800 automatic rain gauges during 2013–2017, characteristics of precipitation diurnal variation and underlying mechanisms over Jiangsu Province, eastern China, during the warm season (May to September) have been revealed in this study. Results show that the precipitation amount (PA), frequency (PF), and intensity (PI) are zonally distributed over Jiangsu. The precipitation shows distinct diurnal cycle and zonal distribution. The large precipitation is located over the southwest side of the Jiangsu section of Yangtze River (JSYR). From midnight to noon, the precipitation expands northeastward, but the precipitation shrinks southeastward from noon to midnight. Meanwhile, the PA is larger during the daytime than that during the nighttime over most Jiangsu. In addition, the PA shows two diurnal peaks, with one in the early morning mainly resulting from the long-duration rainfall and the other in the afternoon resulting from the short-duration rainfall. The total rainfall is largely contributed by the long-duration rainfall. During the whole warm season, water vapor convergence (divergence) and ascending (sinking) movements are consistent, corresponding to the long-duration precipitation diurnal cycles. The contribution of rainfall with long (short) duration to the total rainfall over most areas shows very distinct sub-seasonal variations with a clear decreasing (increasing) trend from pre-Meiyu through Meiyu to post-Meiyu. Among the three subperiods in a warm season, the PA and diurnal cycle of the total rainfall are mostly contributed by those during the Meiyu period. The long-duration precipitation is closely related to the enhancement of the water vapor convergence during the pre-Meiyu period. However, during the Meiyu and post-Meiyu periods, the long-duration precipitation is more consistent with the dynamic lift since the water vapor is abundant. Concluded from the cluster analysis, precipitation spatial distributions are closely associated with the underlying surface, such as the Yangtze River, big cities, Lake Taihu, Lake Hongze, and complex coastal lines. The diurnal variation of the rainfall over different underlying surfaces shows respective diurnal cycle features.

Soil moisture control of precipitation re-evaporation over a heterogeneous land surface

Soil moisture heterogeneity can induce mesoscale circulations due to differential heating between dry and wet surfaces, which can, in turn, trigger precipitation. In this work, we conduct cloud-permitting simulations over a 100 km × 25 km idealized land surface, with the domain split equally between a wet and dry region, each with homogeneous soil moisture. In contrast to previous studies that prescribed initial atmospheric profiles, each simulation is run with fixed soil moisture for 100 days to allow the atmosphere to equilibrate to the given land surface rather than prescribing the initial atmospheric profile. It is then run for one additional day, allowing the soil moisture to freely vary. Soil moisture controls the resulting precipitation over the dry region through three different mechanisms: as the dry domain gets drier, (1) the mesoscale circulation strengthens, increasing water vapor convergence over the dry domain, (2) surface evaporation declines over the dry domain, decreasing water vapor convergence over the dry domain and (3) precipitation efficiency declines due to increased re-evaporation, meaning proportionally less water vapor over the dry domain becomes surface precipitation. We find that the third mechanism dominates when soil moisture is small in the dry domain: drier soils ultimately lead to less precipitation in the dry domain due to its impact on precipitation efficiency. This work highlights an important new mechanism by which soil moisture controls precipitation, through its impact on precipitation re-evaporation and efficiency.

Analysis of a Late-Autumn Rainstorm in the Sichuan Basin on the Eastern Side of the Tibetan Plateau

An abnormal heavy rainfall that occurred on 27 October 2014 in the Sichuan Basin (SB), China, is analyzed. An inverted trough at 850 hPa evolved into a Southwest China Vortex (SWCV), and strong upward motion caused by interaction between the low-level jet (LLJ) at 850 hPa and the upper-level jet (ULJ) at 200 hPa triggered the rainstorm process. Under a large-scale circulation system featuring a westerly trough and subtropical high, there were two cloud bands over the northeast side and south side of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Influenced by the eastward-moving trough, the inverted trough, LLJ, and the SWCV, a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) was generated near the intersection of the two cloud bands, and it was the direct rainstorm system. The MCS strengthened under the situation of the 850 hPa inverted trough, but weakened when the inverted trough evolved to into the SWCV. Eventually, it formed the phenomenon known as “existing vortex without cloud.” Through analysis of the possible reasons why precipitation strengthened (weakened) under the situation of the inverted trough (SWCV), it was found that the strengthening of precipitation was due to a strong tilting updraft in the area of the ULJ and LLJ intersection. On one hand, the upward motion was related to the vorticity advection variation with height and the low-level warm advection forcing; while on the other hand, the dew-point front near the LLJ also played a lifting role in the upward flow of the lower-layer vertical circulation. Meanwhile, the LLJ “head” was a high-value area of water vapor convergence, which provided sufficient water vapor for the rainstorm. During the SWCV, the weakening of precipitation was due to the SWCV weakening gradually; plus, the ULJ was interrupted over the SB, the upper airflow presented downdrafts, and its superposition with the ascending branch of low-level vertical circulation. This airflow structure inhibited the development of strong upward motion, whilst at the same time, the LLJ retreated toward the south and the dew-point front ultimately weakened and disappeared. Subsequently, water vapor convergence weakened and no longer supported the occurrence of heavy rainfall. Therefore, the strong upward motion caused by the ULJ-LLJ intersection and the lower-level dew-point front were the key reasons for the occurrence of this late-autumn rainstorm.

Structural Characteristics of the Yangtze-Huaihe Cold Shear Line over Eastern China in Summer

Based on ERA-Interim data from June to July during 1981–2016 and daily meteorological dataset of China Surface Meteorological Stations (V3.0), 10 typical Yangtze-Huaihe cold shear lines (YCSL) over eastern China (28°~34° N, 110°~122° E) in summer are selected, and the structural characteristics of the YCSL during the evolution process are investigated by the composite analysis. The results indicate that the YCSL is horizontally in a northeast–southwest direction and vertically inclines northward from the lower layer to the upper layer. The vertical extension of the YCSL can reach 750 hPa, and its life time is about 54 h. The evolution process of the YCSL is affected by the comprehensive configuration of the high-level, medium-level, and low-level weather systems. The southward advancement, strengthening, and eastward movement of the north branch low-pressure trough over the Yangtze-Huaihe region at 850 hPa is a key factor for the evolution of the YCSL. Because the structural characteristics of the YCSL have obvious changes in the evolution process, the evolution process can be divided into the development stage, strong stage, and weakening stage. In terms of dynamic structures, the YCSL corresponds well with the axis of the positive vorticity belt, whose center is located at 850 hPa, and reaches the maximum in the strong stage. The YCSL is located in the non-divergence zone, and there are strong convergence centers located on its south side. The YCSL also locates in the ascending motion zone between two secondary circulations on the north and south sides, with the maximum ascending velocity in the strong stage, and its large-value area presents an upright structure. In the development stage, there is an ascending motion along the YCSL, but in the strong and weakening stages there are an ascending motion below 800 hPa and a descending motion above 800 hPa along the YCSL. In terms of thermal structures, the YCSL is located in the low temperature zone of the lower layer, and there is a high temperature zone around 500 hPa. Due to the dominant role of dry and cold airflow from the north, the YCSL locates in the dry and cold air during the development and strong stages, and then the warm and moist airflow from the south invades, resulting in the weakening of the YCSL. There is a convective unstable layer on the south side of the YCSL and a neutral layer on the north side. The water vapor gathers near the YCSL, and there are two water vapor convergence centers on the east and west sides of the YCSL, respectively. The water vapor convergence zone is mainly below 600 hPa in the low troposphere and the convergence center is located at around 900 hPa. The atmospheric baroclinicity is one of the reasons for the northward inclination of the YCSL.

Precipitation Efficiency and Water Budget of Typhoon Fitow (2013): A Particle Trajectory Study

In this study, the WRF Model is used to simulate the torrential rainfall of Typhoon Fitow (2013) over coastal areas of east China during its landfall. Data from the innermost model domain are used to trace trajectories of particles in three major 24-h accumulated rainfall centers using the Lagrangian flexible particle dispersion model (FLEXPART). Surface rainfall budgets and cloud microphysical budgets as well as precipitation efficiency are analyzed along the particles’ trajectories. The rainfall centers with high precipitation efficiency are associated with water vapor convergence, condensation, accretion of cloud water by raindrops, and raindrop loss/convergence. The raindrop loss/convergence over rainfall centers is supported by the raindrop gain/divergence over the areas adjacent to rainfall centers. Precipitation efficiency is mainly determined by hydrometeor loss/convergence. Hydrometeor loss/convergence corresponds to the hydrometeor flux convergence, which may be related to the increased vertical advection of hydrometeors in response to the upward motions and upward decrease of hydrometeors, whereas hydrometeor gain/divergence corresponds to the reduction in hydrometeor flux convergence, which may be associated with the decreased horizontal advection of hydrometeors in response to the zonal decrease in hydrometeors and easterly winds and the meridional increase in hydrometeors and southerly winds. The water vapor convergence and associated condensation do not show consistent relationships with orographic lifting all the time.

A Cloud-Resolving Simulation Study on the Merging Processes and Effects of Topography and Environmental Winds

The cloud-resolving fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to study the cloud interactions and merging processes in the real case that generated a mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 23 August 2001 in the Beijing region. The merging processes can be grouped into three classes for the studied case: isolated nonprecipitating and precipitating cell merging, cloud cluster merging, and echo core or updraft core merging within cloud systems. The mechanisms responsible for the multiscale merging processes were investigated. The merging process between nonprecipitating cells and precipitating cells and that between clusters is initiated by forming an upper-level cloud bridge between two adjacent clouds due to upper-level radial outflows in one vigorous cloud. The cloud bridge is further enhanced by a favorable middle- and upper-level pressure gradient force directed from one cloud to its adjacent cloud by accelerating cloud particles being horizontally transported from the cloud to its adjacent cloud and induce the redistribution of condensational heating, which destabilizes the air at and below the cloud bridge and forms a favorable low-level pressure structure for low-level water vapor convergence and merging process. The merging of echo cores within the mesoscale cloud happens because of the interactions between low-level cold outflows associated with the downdrafts formed by these cores. Further sensitivity studies on the effects of topography and large-scale environmental winds suggest that the favorable pressure gradient force from one cloud to its adjacent cloud and stronger low-level water vapor convergence produced by the topographic lifting of large-scale low-level airflow determine further cloud merging processes over the mountain region.