Abstract 12975: A New Systemic Inflammation-nutrition Index Provides the Additional Long-term Prognostic Information to Ahead Score in Patients With Admitted for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Background: Comorbidities are associated with poor clinical outcome in heart failure patients. AHEAD (A: atrial fibrillation; H: hemoglobin; E: elderly; A: abnormal renal parameters; D: diabetes mellitus) score has been related to clinical outcomes in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). On the other hand, systemic inflammation plays a critical role in the outcomes of heart failure. Malnutrition is also associated with poor outcome in heart failure patients. It has been recently reported that advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI), which is calculated as body mass index х serum albumin / neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, is an independent prognostic marker in several types of cancer. We sought to investigate the prognostic value of the combination of AHEAD score and ALI in ADHF patients. Methods and Results: We studied 263 patients admitted for ADHF and discharged with survival. At the discharge, we obtained ALI and AHEAD score (range 0-5, atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin <13 mg/dL for men and 12 mg/dL for women, age >70 years, creatinine >130 μmol/L, and diabetes mellitus). During a follow-up period of 5.0±4.2 yrs, 67 patients had cardiovascular death (CVD). At multivariate Cox analysis, AHEAD score and ALI were significantly independently associated with CVD, independently of prior heart failure hospitalization, systolic blood pressure and serum sodium level. The patients with both greater AHEAD score (≥median value=3) and lower ALI (≤median value=42.3) had a significantly increased risk of CVD than those with either and none of them (45% vs 24% vs 13%, p<0.0001, respectively). Conclusion: ALI would provide the additional long-term prognostic information to AHEAD score in patients with ADHF.

Comparative prognostic impact of ACCI and AHEAD risk score in heart failure with reduced, mid-range and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction admitted for acute decompensated heart failure

Background Comorbidities are strongly associated with poor clinical outcome in heart failure patients (pts). The Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI), which is well-known widely used comorbidity index, recently has been used as a robust prognostic model in heart failure pts. On the other hand, AHEAD risk score has been recently reported as a useful long-term risk stratification score in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) pts. Recently, a new group of heart failure pts with mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) has been defined, separated from reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We sought to compare the prognostic value of ACCI and AHEAD score in ADHF pts, relating to HFrEF, HFmrEF and HFpEF. Methods We prospectively studied 410 consecutive ADHF pts (HFrEF [n=143], HFmrEF [n=99] and HFpEF [n=168]) with survival discharge. ACCI contains 19 issues which was weighted according to their potential influence on mortality. AHEAD risk score is a simple index, which is range 0–5; atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin &lt;13 mg/dL for men and 12 mg/dL for women, age &gt;70 years, creatinine &gt;130 μmol/L, and diabetes mellitus. The endpoint of this study was all cause death (ACD). Results During a follow-up period of 2.4±1.4 years, 119 pts had ACD (42, 29 and 48 pts in HFrEF, HFmrEF and HFpEF, respectively). At univariate Cox analysis, ACCI and AHEAD risk score were significantly associated with ACD in each subgroup. At multivariate Cox analysis, in HFrEF pts, ACCI, but not AHEAD risk score, showed the significant and independent association with ACD. In HFmrEF, both ACCI and AHEAD risk score was significantly and independently associated with ACD and ROC analysis showed AUC of ACCI was greater than that of AHEAD risk score (0.778 [0.683–0.855] vs 0.637 [0.572–0.764], p=0.07). On the other hand, in HFpEF pts, AHEAD risk score, but not ACCI, showed the significant and independent association ACD. Conclusion ACCI provides more prognostic value in HFrEF pts, and AHEAD risk score has more prognostic value in HFpEF pts. In HFmrEF pts, both ACCI and AHEAD score might have prognostic values, although ACCI tends to be more associated with ACD than AHEAD score. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Validation and comparison of BIOSTAT risk score and AHEAD score for patients with acute heart failure

Background/Introduction Acute heart failure (AHF) is one of the major causes of mortality, and identifying the patients at high risk of mortality at the time of admission is crucial to improve clinical outcomes. Although some risk prediction models for patients with AHF have been proposed mainly from randomized clinical trials, the patients in such studies tend not to be similar to those in the real world. Recently, BIOSTAT risk score and AHEAD score derived from two large-scale registry dataset are proposed as useful risk stratification tools for patients with AHF. However, these scores have not been well externally validated and their prognostic prediction performance has not been directly compared. Purpose To validate and compare prognostication of BIOSTAT risk score and AHEAD score in AHF patients. Methods Patients who consecutively admitted to the cardiac intensive-care unit in our institution with a diagnosis of AHF from 2007 to 2011 were analyzed. Among them, patients with acute coronary syndrome, dialysis, malignancy were excluded. BIOSTAT risk score was calculated using 5 factors (age, blood urea nitrogen, BNP, hemoglobin, prescription of beta blockers), and AHEAD score was also calculated with 5 factors (atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin, age, creatinine, and diabetes mellitus). We also developed AHEAD + BNP model incorporating BNP into AHEAD score. Endpoint was 1-year all-cause death. Results Overall, 591 eligible patients were enrolled (mean age was 70±14 years old, 64.8% were male) and 96 patients (16.2%) died during the follow-up of 1-year. The median [interquartile range] of AHEAD score and BIOSTAT risk score were 2 [1–3] and 3 [2–4], respectively. The areas under the curves of receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.66 for AHEAD, 0.68 for AHEAD + BNP, and 0.72 for BIOSTAT, respectively. The calibration plots for AHEAD, AHEAD + BNP, and BIOSTAT models showed good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: p=0.89, 0.74, and 0.74, respectively). The BIOSTAT model's AUC was significantly higher compared to AHEAD (p=0.018) and marginally statistically higher compared to AHEAD + BNP (p=0.054). However, BIOSTAT model showed statistically significant net reclassification improvement compared to both AHEAD (NRI: 0.43, p&lt;0.001) and AHEAD + BNP (NRI: 0.43, p&lt;0.001). Conclusion The BIOSTAT score comprised of five readily available clinical variables predict 1-year mortality of patients with AHF with good discrimination and calibration. ROC curves Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Prediction of serum NGAL levels using comorbidity AHEAD score and two-year prognosis in stable chronic heart failure patients (FAR NHL registry)

Background Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is marker of renal function and is strongly associated with presence of comorbidities. AHEAD comorbidity score is commonly used to predict survival in acute heart failure patients and could predict events even in chronic heart failure. Methods 547 stable patients with chronic heart failure patients with left ventricular ejection fraction &lt;50% were included in FARmacology and NeuroHumoraL activation (FAR NHL) registry. Three cardiological centres from The Czech Republic with speciality in heart failure were participating. Results Median age was 66 years, 80.3% were men. The etiology of heart failure was in 54% ischemic heart disease, in 40% dilatated cardiomyopathy, in 0.5% hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. 60% of patients were in NYHA class II. In the first two years of follow-up, 74 events (13.5%) occurred, including all-cause death, left ventricle assist device implantation or orthotopic heart transplantation. The AHEAD comorbidity score (Atrial fibrillation, low Haemoglobin level &lt;120 g/L in female or &lt;130 g/L in male, Elderly &gt;70 years; Abnormal renal parameters with creatinine &gt;130 μmol/L, Diabetes mellitus; 1 point for each comorbidity present) was set in this registry. Patients with AHEAD 0–1 survived without event in 89.2%, AHEAD 2–3 in 82.4% and AHEAD 4–5 only in 63.5% (p&lt;0.001; pairwise comparison 0.034, &lt;0.001, 0.021). Also levels of NGAL are higher when comorbidities from AHEAD score are present: Atrial fibrillation (62 vs. 50 ng/mL; p&lt;0.001), Haemoglobin level (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient −0.240; p&lt;0.001), Eldery (Spearman's coefficient 0.425; p&lt;0.001), Abnormal creatinine level (Spearman's coefficient 0.528; p&lt;0.001), Diabetes mellitus (57 vs. 51 ng/mL; p=0.006). NGAL levels are singificantly higher in patients with higher AHEAD score. Mean level of NGAL in AHEAD 0–1 (N=320) is 51 ng/mL, in AHEAD 2–3 (N=190) is 78 ng/mL and in AHEAD 4–5 (N=37) is 142 ng/mL (Kruskal-Wallis test p&lt;0.001, pairwise comparision all &lt;0.001). Conclusion In stable chronic heart failure registry FAR NHL, comorbidity score AHEAD can predict events. Serum NGAL level is significantly higher when AHEAD score comorbidities are present: Atrial fibrillation, low Haemoglobin, Eldery, Abnormal renal function and Diabetes mellitus. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

P794Long-term prognostic value of the combination of AHEAD score and wasting syndrome in patients admitted for acute decompensated heart failure with reduced or preserved LV ejection fraction

Background Comorbidities are associated with poor clinical outcome in heart failure patients (pts). AHEAD (A: atrial fibrillation; H: hemoglobin; E: elderly; A: abnormal renal parameters; D: diabetes mellitus) score has been related to clinical outcomes in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) pts. On the other hand, heart failure is one of a number of disorders associated with the development of wasting syndrome. Previous studies have reported reduced mortality rates in heart failure patients with increased body mass index (BMI), so-called, obesity paradox. We sought to investigate the prognostic value of the combination of AHEAD score and the cachectic state in ADHF pts, relating to reduced or preserved LVEF (HFrEF or HFpEF). Methods and results We studied 303 pts admitted for ADHF and discharged with survival (HFrEF (LVEF <50%); n=163, HFpEF (LVEF ≥50%; n=140). We evaluated AHEAD score (range 0–5, atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin <13 mg/dL for men and 12 mg/dL for women, age >70 years, creatinine >130 μmol/L, and diabetes mellitus) and wasting syndrome was defined as BMI <20 kg/m2 and serum albumin level (Alb) <3.2 g/dl at the discharge. During a follow-up period of 5.1±4.2 years, 121 pts died. At multivariate Cox analysis, AHEAD score and wasting syndrome was significantly and independently associated with the total mortality, in pts with not only HFrEF but also HFpEF. Pts with both high AHEAD score (≥3: AUC 0.625 [0.542–0.709] in HFrEF and ≥3: AUC 0.611 [0514–0.708] in HFpEF, by ROC curve analysis) and wasting syndrome had a higher risk of mortality than those with either and none of them in HFrEF (71% vs 51% vs 40%, p<0.0001, respectively) and HFpEF (78% vs 33% vs 24%, p<0.0001, respectively). Conclusion The combination of AHEAD score and wasting syndrome would be useful for stratifying patients at risk for the mortality in ADHF pts, regardless of HFrEF or HFpEF.