Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry

Water temperatures and stratification are important drivers for ecological and water quality processes within lake systems, and changes in these with increases in air temperature and changes to wind speeds may have significant ecological consequences. To properly manage these systems under changing climate, it is important to understand the effects of increasing air temperatures and wind speed changes in lakes of different depths and surface areas. In this study, we simulate three lakes that vary in depth and surface area to elucidate the effects of the observed increasing air temperatures and decreasing wind speeds on lake thermal variables (water temperature, stratification dates, strength of stratification, and surface heat fluxes) over a century (1911–2014). For all three lakes, simulations showed that epilimnetic temperatures increased, hypolimnetic temperatures decreased, the length of the stratified season increased due to earlier stratification onset and later fall overturn, stability increased, and longwave and sensible heat fluxes at the surface increased. Overall, lake depth influences the presence of stratification, Schmidt stability, and differences in surface heat flux, while lake surface area influences differences in hypolimnion temperature, hypolimnetic heating, variability of Schmidt stability, and stratification onset and fall overturn dates. Larger surface area lakes have greater wind mixing due to increased surface momentum. Climate perturbations indicate that our larger study lakes have more variability in temperature and stratification variables than the smaller lakes, and this variability increases with larger wind speeds. For all study lakes, Pearson correlations and climate perturbation scenarios indicate that wind speed has a large effect on temperature and stratification variables, sometimes greater than changes in air temperature, and wind can act to either amplify or mitigate the effect of warmer air temperatures on lake thermal structure depending on the direction of local wind speed changes.

Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry

Water temperatures in three morphometrically different lakes are simulated using a one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model over the century (1911–2014) to elucidate the effects of increasing air temperature and decreasing wind speed on lake thermal variables (water temperature, stratification dates, strength of stratification, and surface heat fluxes). During the study period, epilimnetic temperatures increased, hypolimnetic temperatures decreased, and the length of the stratified season increased for the study lakes due to earlier stratification onset and later fall overturn. Additionally, there was an abrupt change in epilimnion temperature after 1930 in both Lake Mendota and Lake Wingra, and three changes, after 1934, 1995, and 2008 for Fish Lake. There was a significant change in the slope of trend of stratification duration after 1940 in Lake Mendota and a significant change in trend after 1981 for Fish Lake. Schmidt stability showed a statistically significant increasing trend for both deep lakes, with the larger trend and greater variability in the larger surface area lake. Sensible heat flux in all three lakes increases over the simulation period while longwave heat flux decreases. The shallow study lake had a greater change in latent heat flux and net heat flux, illustrating the role of lake depth to surface heat fluxes. Sensible heat flux in all three lakes had similar timing of abrupt changes, but the magnitude of the change increased with increasing depth. Abrupt changes in latent heat flux appear to be independent of lake morphometry, indicating that the timing of change may be primarily driven by climate. Perturbing drivers showed that increasing air temperature and decreasing wind speed caused earlier stratification onset and later fall overturn. For hypolimnetic water temperature, however, increasing air temperature warmed bottom waters while decreasing wind speed cooled bottom waters, indicating that the change of hypolimnetic temperatures globally may be influenced by local changes in wind speed. Overall, lake depth impacts the presence of stratification and magnitude of Schmidt stability, while lake surface area drives differences in hypolimnion temperature, hypolimnetic heating, variability of Schmidt stability, and stratification onset and fall overturn dates.