Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10)

The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) of intermediate complexity has been a useful tool in recent assessments of long-term climate changes, including both paleo-climate modelling and uncertainty assessments of future warming. Since the last official release of the UVic ESCM 2.9 and the two official updates during the last decade, considerable model development has taken place among multiple research groups. The new version 2.10 of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model presented here will be part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). More precisely it will be used in the intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMIC), such as the C4MIP, the Carbon Dioxide Removal and Zero Emissions Commitment model intercomparison projects (CDR-MIP and ZECMIP, respectively). It now brings together and combines multiple model developments and new components that have come about since the last official release of the model. The main additions to the base model are (i) an improved biogeochemistry module for the ocean, (ii) a vertically resolved soil model including dynamic hydrology and soil carbon processes, and (iii) a representation of permafrost carbon. To set the foundation of its use, we here describe the UVic ESCM 2.10 and evaluate results from transient historical simulations against observational data. We find that the UVic ESCM 2.10 is capable of reproducing changes in historical temperature and carbon fluxes well. The spatial distribution of many ocean tracers, including temperature, salinity, phosphate and nitrate, also agree well with observed tracer profiles. The good performance in the ocean tracers is connected to an improved representation of ocean physical properties. For the moment, the main biases that remain are a vegetation carbon density that is too high in the tropics, a higher than observed change in the ocean heat content (OHC) and an oxygen utilization in the Southern Ocean that is too low. All of these biases will be addressed in the next updates to the model.

A model-based assessment of the TrOCA approach for estimating oceanic anthropogenic carbon

The future behaviour of the global ocean as a sink for CO2 is significant for climate change, but it is also important to understand its past by quantifying anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) in the ocean today. Unfortunately, this is complicated by the difficulty of deconvoluting Cant from the natural, unperturbed carbon cycle. Nonetheless, a range of techniques have been devised that perform this separation using the information implicit in other physical, biogeochemical and artificial ocean tracers. One such method is the TrOCA approach, whose parameterisation is derived from relationships between biogeochemical tracers within watermasses defined by age tracers such as CFC-11. TrOCA has a number of methodological advantages, and has been shown to be plausible, relative to other methods, in a number of studies. Here we examine the TrOCA approach by using it to deconvolute the known distribution of Cant from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulation of the industrial period (1864–2004). TrOCA is evaluated at local, regional and global scales, with an emphasis on the wider applicability of the parameterisations derived at these scales. Our work finds that the published TrOCA parameterisation performs poorly when extrapolated beyond its calibration region, either with observational data or (especially) model output. Optimising TrOCA parameters using model output as a synthetic dataset leads to some small improvements, but the resulting TrOCA variants still perform poorly. Furthermore, there are large ranges on the optimised TrOCA parameters suggesting that a "universal" TrOCA parameterisation is not achieveable.