Spatial–Temporal Neighborhood Patterns in Four Legacy Cities

Legacy cities are characterized by long-term, declining trends in both population and economic characteristics, but how these events translate to the neighborhood scale is less well understood. This research investigates the evolution of neighborhood types in four legacy cities—Baltimore, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and St. Louis—from 1970 to 2010. Working from a multidimensional framework of variables across five census decades, hierarchical cluster analysis and discriminant analysis are used to develop a neighborhood typology, identify temporal trends, and describe the pathways of transition. Results reveal four crosscutting neighborhood types: Black Distressed; Lower Middle; Multifamily, Educated, Turnover; and Upper Middle, which persist across space and time. Most neighborhoods (61%) remained classified within the same type over 40 years, and transitions were concentrated in two decades (1970–1980 and 2000–2010). The results offer a new descriptive dimension for understanding the unevenness present across legacy cities and suggest that existing policy approaches continually reproduce the same neighborhood outcomes.

Multilevel Recidivism Prediction

Risk assessments such as the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) that predict delinquency outcomes based on proximal risk factors may benefit from an incorporation of distal risk factors in their prediction models. This study utilized a juvenile probationer sample and block group SES data in exploring the differential predictive validity of the YLS/CMI with youth of similar person-centered risk levels from different criminogenic neighborhood types. The study entailed an exploratory factor analysis of block group socioeconomic variables, which were used in a cluster analysis to create criminogenic neighborhood typology system. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship among recidivism (Level 1), risk score (Level 1), neighborhood SES factors (Level 2), and neighborhood types (Level 2). Significant interactions were found across levels among variables, suggesting the risk—recidivism relationship was moderated by neighborhood socioeconomic ecology. Implications for practice and policy are discussed.