GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE THROUGH TECHNOLOGICAL INTERDEPENDENCE

This paper presents a multi-country version of the Ramsey growth model with cross-country technological interdependence. The results rationalize several stylized facts about growth and convergence. First, individual countries tend to converge toward country-specific balanced growth paths rather than steady-state equilibria. Second, an economy that accounts for a smaller share of the world technology distribution harnesses the “advantages of backwardness” to catch up at a faster speed. Third, countries grow at different rates during the phase of transitional dynamics. However, technological interdependence creates a force toward cross-country convergence in the growth rate and stability of world income distribution in the long run. Finally, cross-country differences in structural characteristics and initial conditions lead to divergences in the level of income per capita.

The Theory of Growth

This chapter reviews the theory of growth. As motivation, it first discusses a range of related facts, including structural change and facts on the ‘new economy. It then launches into the Solow Growth Model (SMG) and related issues. The question of convergence, growth/development accounting, and the world income distribution are discussed next. The later part of the chapter discusses Endogenous Growth Theory(ies) (EGT). After offering an intuitive discussion of the limitations of SMG that EGT aims to rectify, the chapter reviews the AK model, including the processes that underpin it and its properties, and human capital, including its two-sector formulation. Newer EGT models are then reviewed, including models based on expanding product variety and those based on improving quality and product replacement (‘creative destruction’). The chapter concludes with evidence, the policy implications of EGT, and directions of current research.

12. Global Growth, Inequality, and Poverty:

This chapter argues that economists have oversold the virtues of globalization, displaying confidence in derived policy prescriptions well beyond the evidence. The most spectacular recent demonstration of hubris is the failure of almost the whole of the mainstream economics profession in the few years before 2007–8 to forecast a major recession. The chapter then outlines the neo-liberal world view and its application in the form of the development recipe known as the Washington Consensus. Since the 1980s, the Western economic policy ‘establishment’ has espoused a doctrine of ‘best economic policy’ for the world which says, put too simply, that ‘more market and less state’ should be the direction of travel for developed and developing countries. This overarching neo-liberal ideology embraces globalization as a major component, relating to the nature of integration into the international economy. The chapter then looks at trends in world income distribution and poverty, bearing in mind the optimistic claims of the globalization argument.

If Technology Has Arrived Everywhere, Why Has Income Diverged?

We study the cross-country evolution of technology diffusion over the last two centuries. We document that adoption lags between poor and rich countries have converged, while the intensity of use of adopted technologies of poor countries relative to rich countries has diverged. The evolution of aggregate productivity implied by these trends in technology diffusion resembles the actual evolution of the world income distribution in the last two centuries. Cross-country differences in adoption lags account for a significant part of the cross-country income divergence in the nineteenth century. The divergence in intensity of use accounts for the divergence during the twentieth century. (JEL N10, N70, O14, O33, O41, O47)

The Impact of Death and Bubbles in American Art

Chapter 7 presents a dissection of two important issues affecting the art market and the fate of artists: “a death effect” and “bubbles.” Death of an artist is a guarantee that additional legitimate output will not be forthcoming, the “Coase durable monopoly conjecture.” Evidence indicates that the price path of seventeen artists who died over the sample period rises as the artist approaches death. After death, price may rise or fall with supply and demand, but we find it rises for our contemporary artists. “Bubbles”—rapid price increases—have and do occur in the art market. We find that art price behavior parallel GDP prior to 2008, but rose much faster thereafter. This result, coupled with an increasingly skewed world income distribution and billionaire buying, potentially denotes an “art price bubble.”