The New ‘Multiplex’ Cold War in the Indo-Pacific

In this chapter we argue that one of the principal inhibitors of sustainable security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region is that the Cold War has yet to end. Strategic concepts and postures reflecting containment, ‘constrainment’, sphere of influence, expansionism, and territorial competition still inhabit the rhetoric not just of the regional security environment. Regional strategies can therefore be interpreted within the framework of Cold War ‘logic’, thus impeding regional security cooperation. The ‘old’ Cold War has thus been perpetuated, reinforced, and reinterpreted as a ‘new’ Cold War due to geopolitical competition over global and regional primacy. Even within this process of geopolitical competition, old geopolitical concepts such as ‘pivot’ and ‘Indo-Pacific’ have also been reinterpreted and reused to justify new strategies that ultimately continue to foster a new Cold War in the region. Indeed, the Indo-Pacific has returned as a central element of the new Cold War.

The Gulf Monarchies Face the Twenty-First Century

The six Gulf monarchies form a distinct bloc within the Arab world. Saudi Arabia seeks to dominate it and is presently entangled in a struggle for regional hegemony with Iran. The 2011 uprisings failed to overturn any of the monarchies,which all became acutely aware of the threat that these uprisings posed, andthen chose to accelerate reforms in response. Five of the Gulf countries have tiny indigenous populations, most outnumbered by foreign workers. They also haveenormous oil or gas wealth andambitious 2030 visions for development. In addition, the five all face the double challenge of having an expansionist Iran and domineering Saudi Arabia as neighbors. Since independence from Britain in 1971, they have dedicated themselves, several with notable success, to establishing modern states, national identities and a global stature. Meanwhile, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi kingdom is finally undergoing radical social and economic changes in the midst of unprecedented political repression and major resistance to the Saudi bid for regional primacy from both Iran and other increasingly independent-minded Gulf monarchies.In addition, U.S.-Saudi relations, the bedrock of Saudi stability and security, are deteriorating.

Democracy and peace: putting the cart before the horse?

To explain the strong finding that democracies rarely fight other democracies, analysts typically focus on some attribute of regime type. This linkage may be spurious, at least in part. The emergence and persistence of the first wave of liberal republics and democracies were greatly facilitated by the prior resolution of regional primacy questions. Because early democracies did not engage fully in competitions for regional primacy and territorial expansion, they were less likely to attack other states, democracies or otherwise, in their home regions. Nonexpansionist foreign policies also discouraged the domestic concentration of economic and political power, which in turn facilitated democratization processes. Four historical cases illustrate how regional primacy issues preceded the development of democracy and either undermined or facilitated democratization processes in major powers that have been especially important to the annals of war participation. Further research on whether peace antecedes democracy or the other way around appears warranted.