Beyond the “Ferguson Effect” on Crime: Examining its Influence on Law Enforcement Personnel

The purpose of the current study is to examine the influence tensions over high-profile officer-involved shootings have had on Atlanta police officers’ ability to do their jobs and whether these impacts vary by officer race. Data was collected between August and October of 2016. A total of 241 police officers across six zones completed the self-administered survey. Findings indicate that while white officers, on average, felt the impacts of recent tensions surrounding officer-involved shootings more strongly, non-white officers were more likely to say they would leave policing if offered a better paying job in another field. This study provides insight into racial differences in the impacts of recent tensions and protests over fatal officer-involved shootings.

Explaining the Recent Homicide Spikes in U.S. Cities

Recently, major cities across the country have suffered dramatic spikes in homicides. These sudden spikes are remarkably large and widespread. At this rate, 2020 will easily be the deadliest year in America for gun-related homicides since at least 1999, while most other major crime categories are trending stable or slightly downward. This article attempts to explain why so many cities have seen extraordinary increases in murder during the summer of 2020. A close analysis of the emerging crime patterns suggests that American cities may be witnessing significant declines in some forms of policing, which in turn are producing the homicide spikes. Crime rates are increasing only for a few specific categories—namely homicides and shootings. These crime categories are particularly responsive to reductions in proactive policing. The data also pinpoint the timing of the spikes to late May 2020, which corresponds with the death of George Floyd while in police custody in Minneapolis and subsequent antipolice protests—protests that likely led to declines in law enforcement. The thesis of this article is that the recent spikes in homicides have been caused by a “Minneapolis Effect,” similar to the earlier “Ferguson Effect.” Specifically, law enforcement agencies have been forced to divert resources from normal policing to patrolling demonstrations. And even as the antipolice protests have abated, police officers have scaled back on proactive or officer-initiated law enforcement, such as street stops and other forms of policing designed to prevent firearm crimes. If this thesis is correct, it is reasonable to estimate that, as a result of de-policing during June and July 2020, approximately 710 additional victims were murdered and more than 2,800 victims were shot. Of course, this estimate relies on various assumptions, and further research on the issues surrounding the homicide spikes should be an urgent priority. If this article’s thesis about a Minneapolis Effect is correct, an important implication is that policy makers in major cities should proceed cautiously before taking steps to “defund” the police in ways that might reduce the proactive policing that is important in preventing gun violence.

The Law and Economics of De-policing

There is mounting evidence for something that some criminologists have dubbed “The Ferguson Effect”—when police face hostile public scrutiny, in the wake of a highly publicized incident of police misconduct, there is impressive evidence of police retreat, sometimes referred to as “de-policing.” Recent data reviewed by Professors Richard Rosenfeld and Paul Cassell in their important papers document sharp spikes in violent crime in major cities following protests against police violence beginning in May 2020. It is a devilishly difficult business to ascertain the causes of changes in crime rates. Even granting the ineradicable uncertainties, this article argues that there is an impressive case that this crime spike reflects a Ferguson Effect. The incentives confronting police offices suggest the likely mechanism for the decline in law enforcement activity documented by Professor Cassell. Because officers internalize few, if any, of the benefits of effective policing, when they perceive a risk that they will be made to internalize its costs, over-deterrence is the likely outcome. There are, moreover, important policy implications of this conclusion. Policing reforms must be alert to the risk that they will over-deter officers, and thereby spur increases in violent crime, which will impose disproportionate costs on disadvantaged communities and people of color.

“I Almost Quit”: Exploring the Prevalence of the Ferguson Effect in Two Small Sized Law Enforcement Agencies in Rural Southcentral Virginia

Recent negatively publicized police-citizen interactions in the media, followed by a subsequent de-policing of police in the United States, has been named the Ferguson Effect. The Ferguson Effect has been explored by prominent scholars in the criminal justice community; however, little is known about how police officers in small rural police agencies perceive the Ferguson Effect. The purpose of this qualitative phenomenological study was to explore the perceptions and lived experiences of police officers regarding the Ferguson Effect in small rural police agencies, as well as police officers’ perceptions of their own organizational justice. Organizational justice theory was utilized as the theoretical lens for this study. Research questions focused on exploring police officers’ perceptions, attitudes, and experiences of the Ferguson Effect phenomenon and willingness to partner with the community. Purposeful sampling was utilized and semi structured interviews were conducted of nine active sworn law enforcement personnel in southcentral Virginia. Data were analyzed through in vivo coding, pattern coding, and structural analysis utilizing NVivo 11 Pro. Themes included: (a) racial division, (b) rush to judgment, and (c) steadfast leadership. Findings indicated participants demanded clear and fair policies and procedures from leadership, increased effort of transparency in policing, feelings of racial tension, and the need to regain community trust post-Ferguson.

A Ferguson Effect, the Drug Epidemic, Both, or Neither? Explaining the 2015 and 2016 U.S. Homicide Rises by Race and Ethnicity

In 2015 and 2016, U.S. homicide rates rose dramatically amid two historic social phenomena: a police legitimacy crisis related to an alleged “Ferguson effect” and the opioid epidemic. To empirically explain this increase, we compile county-level data on race/ethnic-specific homicides from 2014 to 2016 along with contemporaneous county-level data on police killings of civilians, citizen protests, fatal drug overdoses, structural disadvantage, and other factors. Regression analysis suggests that both police illegitimacy and the drug epidemic contributed to Black and White homicide rises, particularly in structurally disadvantaged counties. However, we find no such association for Hispanic homicide increases.